Bookies accuracy on AFL

**binomial** · 04-25-11, 10:45 PM

they were 60+ points off on the port GC game.

whereas they were pretty spot on with collingwood v essendon with the cover swapping after the siren.

they dont stay in business due to being stupid would be my suggestion.

**jhol3990** · 04-25-11, 11:05 PM

look at the post on research .... under

/handicapper-think-tank/ in this forum.

I'm currently engaging in downloading the data from

Home - prostats

http://www.pro-stats.com.au

and comparing to betfair odds to see if i can find any edge

**Lookingtostart** · 04-26-11, 03:38 AM

Thanks for the replys. I'll have a look at that post and the link looks interesting.

I don't think anyone could have predicted the Suns line

**Gee** · 04-26-11, 08:36 AM

The AFL market is relatively efficient. it isn't really a game that lends itself to precise pointspreads though.

if you are asking purely on numbers, my view is the actual line can often be soft. If you are talking about whether a line movement is important, then absolutely. Just like any sport, however, its just another tool in picking winners.

Lines have been a lot sharper this year than in previous years though IMO. Not a big enough sample size to judge if it will remain this way.

**Reno Paul** · 04-26-11, 01:39 PM

The linesmakers were spot on with the Freemantle/Western Bulldogs game...Line was at 7.5 then ended at 6.5....Freemantle won by 7 lol.

Dogs on a whole did pretty well last weekend.

I'm an American, got an Aussie online friend who likes to bet and just started betting AFL games a few weeks ago.

It is difficult to watch AFL games from the states...I usually listen to them from the AFL website.

I'm making a profit betting AFL so far. I like betting this compared to American sports.

AFL betting is fun!!!!

**Lookingtostart** · 04-26-11, 02:43 PM

It's difficult to watch here in australia as we only get 4 games on free-to-air, I hate to say it, but I think it's going to get even more difficult to watch in the future. I hate foxtel.

**Gee** · 04-26-11, 07:47 PM

It isn't as good as it was a few years ago when they had a dedicated AFL channel on foxtel. That was something special.

There was a time when you could get all 8 games live.

I still get to watch most games - there is almost always a stream somewhere (usually on veetle or silversportz), but between foxtel/free to air tv, we only get about 6 live games a week :/

Lines makers have been pretty good the last month in AFL.

**jhol3990** · 04-27-11, 12:19 AM

@lookingtostart - the aim is not to get the prediction right in any one week.
The problem is: given the two teams, and odds of 19 dollars on gold coast , would gold coast win more often than 1 in every 19 games in a season?

If you thought gold coast would be good enough to win 2 games in the season, then you would have seen $19 on Gold coast as good value over the course of the season.

Now how to evaluate that accurately - that is how you make money.

**maroona** · 04-27-11, 12:43 AM

Originally posted by jhol3990

@lookingtostart - the aim is not to get the prediction right in any one week.
The problem is: given the two teams, and odds of 19 dollars on gold coast , would gold coast win more often than 1 in every 19 games in a season?

If you thought gold coast would be good enough to win 2 games in the season, then you would have seen $19 on Gold coast as good value over the course of the season.

Now how to evaluate that accurately - that is how you make money.

If they were $19 every week I think I would understand what your saying, but they won't be or am I missing something here..

**hawley** · 04-27-11, 12:54 AM

try NBA lines - especially totals. they are razor sharp

**Pherst** · 04-29-11, 08:32 AM

Originally posted by Lookingtostart

It's difficult to watch here in australia as we only get 4 games on free-to-air, I hate to say it, but I think it's going to get even more difficult to watch in the future. I hate foxtel.

I heard the foxtel guy on the radio saying that the price of foxtel won't increase after they just paid a bomb for the tv rights, but then he went on to say that the AFl channel was gonna cost an extra $60 per month or something...

**Lookingtostart** · 04-29-11, 08:58 AM

I've read about this. I predicted these things will happen when the tv rights originally went to 7, 9, 10 and foxtel in the 90's.

There is a bit of confusion with the $60 a month thing. $60 will include the basic useless channels and the sports package, which will include AFL. So AFL will cost $60 a month overall, still too much, when we should be getting it for free. This deal will damage smaller clubs as well.

The fee WILL go up, I don't care what they say. It's called a monopoly. People are happy to give away their freedom on AFL/sports, pay money and feed foxtel.

As the years go on, foxtel will be able to charge whatever price they want, and no one can do anything about them.

If people didn't support them we would have an extra FTA AFL channel by now and more live games, or games on other networks' channels.

For people who bet professionally or a lot, I understand the need for foxtel. For them it's business. Unless I become a professional in sports betting, I will choose not to support them.

**maroona** · 04-29-11, 09:39 AM

Who cares, its $2 a day, just pay it, enjoy it and move on..