Monday Night NRL - Dragons vs Rabbitohs

[Alt75]

Dragons should win easily and cover the -7

Any thoughts on the over/under?

I was leaning towards the under I see this as being a 24-10 type score line. Don't see Rabbitohs scoring much more than a try or two but Dragons could possibly get the 41.5 themselves if they are switched on and capitalise on mistakes and lapses.


Game Preview

http://www.nrl.com/TelstraPremiership/MatchCentre/tabid/10999/Default.aspx#matchid=1227&tab=Preview

Line Trends

South Sydney are 2 - 4 at the Line
South Sydney are 1 - 3 at the Plus
South Sydney are 1 - 1 at the Minus
South Sydney are 1 - 2 Away
South Sydney are 1 - 2 at Home
South Sydney are 2 - 4 against the Top 8
South Sydney are 0 - 0 against the Bottom 8

St George are 4 - 2 at the Line
St George are 0 - 0 at the Plus
St George are 4 - 2 at the Minus
St George are 3 - 2 Away
St George are 1 - 0 at Home
St George are 4 - 2 against the Top 8
St George are 0 - 0 against the Bottom 8

[Duff85]

Taking Dragons-7 is bad. That's going to be -5.5 by kick off.

[rjc]

Why Is there so much love for the bunnies? Am I missing somthing

[Gee]

Love for bunnies?? Everyone is on dragons from what I can see.

u/41.5 for me.

I like the Dragons, but I don't like that the line has moved to 6.... on that basis, i can't take a side. Movement back to a converted try can only be RLM, given almost everyone I have seen and read are on the Dragons to win by a lot.

Strange things happen on Monday nights. Dragons don't particularly play well at night...

[Alt75]

I haven't and probably won't take the -7, I still think Dragons win by 14/16 though.

The line total double of Dragons -5.5 and under 41.5 @ $3.60 is what I'm considering.

[rjc]

Nothing says love more than a 10k bet on the bunnies Gee. @ SportingBet that is, the same place the money came for for the sharks v dragons and we all know how that went!

[Duff85]

Yeah lots of money coming for the Bunnies... its come down from openers around 7 to what looks to be 5.5 and the head to head prices are coming down too.

[Gee]

yup, now at 5.5

Bunnies +6 for me based purely on this. Still available at centrebet.

No reason for this move IMO.

No injuries. Bunnies are not a big public bet, despite 10K coming from them on sportingbet.

o/u is at 44 at betphoenix btw. get on the under if you can.

[Alt75]

Russell Crowe probably just threw a spare 10k on his beloved bunnies.

[Bazz27]

I'm on last scoring play for a dragons conversion @4.20 x 2/u with c/bet - seems like a good price or it's an error as souths same option is only @2.85 n both for a f/g last play is @8's + got dragons h/t-f/t @2.08 x 1/u........ was an error, c/bet now reversed divies once bet was placed...

[Alt75]

yeah nice one, hope you get it!

It's $2.60 at sportsbet and $2.65 at sportingbet for dragons conversion last scoring play

what about chances for a 40/20?

I saw on another thread someone mentioned field goals a possibility, I'm not completely up to scratch on all the league players but if these two sides have good kickers I would figure there's a good chance for one.

[rjc]

That was me about the field goals. The teams have combined for one drop goal a game, so if it is as close as the line movement is predicting than $4 is good value I think.

[Bazz27]

soward n sandow can be good for 1 pointers

[rjc]

Good luck with the bets gents!

[Alt75]

Chucked a few bucks on 1 or more field goals and a tenner on Dragons -3.5 pyol in case the score goes over and I miss the line/total double, hope I have some luck tonight had the Knights -4.5 and Fremantle -32.5 yesterday.

[Gee]

Alt: when did you bet Freo? You were unlucky to get that line. It was dropping all weekend - eventually closed at 28.5!

Under looking golden

Anyones call as to side. I may just hedge out at half time and take the under to the bank if no one scores before then.

Sth Syd justifying the line movement too.

[Alt75]

Yesterday arvo on sportingbet, it actually raised from 29.5 to 32.5 on there as I placed the bet, it was the even money line. had a feeling it was a bit high and was going to play it safe and just go Freo -15.5, but no, went with it anyway.

Yeah this under is pretty much a lock, hopefully Dragons get the -5.5. No try's in the first half, geez.

[rjc]

Just bank the under Gee, I wouldn't worry about a side Anyones game.

[Gee]

Yes, i took no try for after 8 mins or longer 2H at $1.90. worth a shot the way they are playing. knowing this type of game they'll explode though seems value though, given the two defensive lines.

rjc: i'm on souths +6. thats why i'm thinking of hedging out and just taking my under for the game. might just ride it out....

[Alt75]

Going on my weekends form with lines since I've bet Dragons to win by -3.5 and -5.5/under, I wouldn't be surprised to see Rabbitohs get up win or it be a completely scoreless 2nd half and Dragons win by 2.

[Gee]

What a stressful way to watch sport - that was an intense 8 minutes, particularly after that last penalty to the dragons!

cash 1st try of 2H at 8 mins or later. +2 units already (I'm counting the under) with the Rabbitohs pending!

[rjc]

I think that was Prior's 10k on the bunnies. He's having a shocker

[Alt75]

This is ******* ridiculous

hahah it actually may go my way after all

[jhol3990]

inglis has been more involved in the two games that rabbits have won

and
... all over now