valaub 2011 The Masters week-long thread

[valaub04]

Valaub what do you think about ogilvy vs couples .....couples always plays good for three rounds and the fourth just slowly fades out!

buurrdman -

really glad you asked that question b/c it made me do some research to validate what i thought and put me onto a play that i initially had just crossed off as a no-play. couples has played in a LOT of Masters, and obviously every year since his win in 1992. this is his favorite event and he has performed well there even into his older years. he has missed the cut only 2x in his career and since his win in 1992 he has only had 2 rounds over par on Sunday (1995 and 2003 - if you believe in patterns i guess he would be due another one as they were 8 years apart). knowledge of the course and in particular the traditional sunday pin placements would favor couples here. i bet on ogilvy today in his matchup but even though he won i was very surprised/disappointed in his performance. 4 bogeys on the day and it could've been worse but the hole got in the way of a fast putt and he made birdie on 11. obviously your money and your call, but i'll make a small wager on couples at +130... love that number. BOL to you either way.

[valaub04]

final round plays:

Charl Schwartzel +105 over KJ Choi. 6** Schwartzel has really been coming into formas the tourney has progressed. His putting has been terrific and he has played the front 9 VERY well this week. If he can continue that play on the front 9 tomorrow he has a legit chance to come out of nowhere and win, much like countryman Trevor Immelman did 2 years ago. Choi's scores have risen each day and but for birdieing 5 of last 6 on the opening round, he wouldn't be getting much notice. I think his past successes here are a little overhyped and help us get a + price with Schwartzel.

Fred Couples +125 over Geoff Ogilvy 4** Tourney veteran and crowd favorite Couples has had only 2 rounds over par here in Sunday rounds since 1992 (although he did miss the cut twice as well). Couples' favorite event and he plays the course very well. My earlier thought that Ogilvy was rounding into top form seems unfounded and I will take the solid veteran at a nice price here.

Luke Donald -.5 -138 over Bo Van Pelt 2** This would be a larger play except fr the juice and/or the .5 handicap. Has been terrific since a very lackluster start that saw him +3 after the first 13 holes. His 69 yesterday came despite playing the par 5's at only even par. If you don't mind juice have at this one as I think it cashes easily, but at full price of -170 I'm laying the half and also playing smaller.

The rest of my plays are all for the same prop and same amount... reason? They're great players and I think tomorrow will be a day for good scores.

Tiger Woods under 71.5 4th rd. -150 2*
Matt Kuchar under 71.5 4th rd. -125 2*
Luke Donald under 71.5 4th rd. -125 2*
Charl Schwartzel under 71.5 4th rd. +100 2*
Rory McIlroy under 71.5 4th rd. +100 2*

[valaub04]

final round plays:

WIN Charl Schwartzel +105 over KJ Choi. 6** Schwartzel has really been coming into formas the tourney has progressed. His putting has been terrific and he has played the front 9 VERY well this week. If he can continue that play on the front 9 tomorrow he has a legit chance to come out of nowhere and win, much like countryman Trevor Immelman did 2 years ago. Choi's scores have risen each day and but for birdieing 5 of last 6 on the opening round, he wouldn't be getting much notice. I think his past successes here are a little overhyped and help us get a + price with Schwartzel.

LOSS Fred Couples +125 over Geoff Ogilvy 4** Tourney veteran and crowd favorite Couples has had only 2 rounds over par here in Sunday rounds since 1992 (although he did miss the cut twice as well). Couples' favorite event and he plays the course very well. My earlier thought that Ogilvy was rounding into top form seems unfounded and I will take the solid veteran at a nice price here.

WIN Luke Donald -.5 -138 over Bo Van Pelt 2** This would be a larger play except fr the juice and/or the .5 handicap. Has been terrific since a very lackluster start that saw him +3 after the first 13 holes. His 69 yesterday came despite playing the par 5's at only even par. If you don't mind juice have at this one as I think it cashes easily, but at full price of -170 I'm laying the half and also playing smaller.

The rest of my plays are all for the same prop and same amount... reason? They're great players and I think tomorrow will be a day for good scores.

WIN Tiger Woods under 71.5 4th rd. -150 2*
LOSS Matt Kuchar under 71.5 4th rd. -125 2*
WIN Luke Donald under 71.5 4th rd. -125 2*
WIN Charl Schwartzel under 71.5 4th rd. +100 2*
LOSS Rory McIlroy under 71.5 4th rd. +100 2*

Sunday total 5-3 + 5.8 units

Remaining 72 Hole Matchups:
LOSS BADLY 25 unit GOY Mickelson -135 over Luke Donald -33.75 units
WIN Brandt Snedeker (2x) -145 over Gary Woodland +2 units
WIN Matt Kuchar -129 over Dustin Johnson 5** +5 units
WIN Angel Cabrera -110 over Alvaro Quiros 4** +4 units

remaining matchups 3-1 but -22.75 units

props: 1-2 +.05 units

mcilroy to win.... good god. -13.5 units

matches decided today 9-6 -30.4 units

Grand Total Masters 15-12 -8.03 units. not at all what I planned and sorry for anyone who lost.

29-18-2 +36.28 units YTD. Taking some time off, back for The Players Championship.