Samuraifan's Picks

**rav_himself** · 07-24-10, 03:29 AM

BOL

**Samuraifan** · 07-24-10, 04:22 AM

First two picks, lets cash! Apologies that my AFL pick is late, I was busy with the write up.

#1
AFL - Round 17
North Melbourne v Essendon
Line - North Melbourne -13.5
$1.00 @ 1.92

Notes:
- North Melbourne won the last 7 of the 8 between these two teams
- North Melbourne beat teams they need to but lose matches with top tier teams
- Essendon got hammered by 32 last week against a lowly West Coast team
- Essendon missing a number of starters due to injuries

#2
NRL - Round 20
Nth Queensland Cowboys v Newcastle Knights
Total Points - o46.0
$2.00 @ 1.90

Notes:
- Last 3 games between the teams have gone over this total
- Easily went over in the R6 meeting, Knights 36-18
- Nth Queensland Cowboys given up 460 pts this season (#1 in the league)
- Newcastle Knights given up 421 pts this season (#3 in the league)

LETS BUILD THAT BANKROLL!

**rav_himself** · 07-24-10, 06:58 AM

not sure what happened in the AFL but nice call on the Cowboys over

cash that shittt

**Samuraifan** · 07-24-10, 08:06 AM

Originally posted by Samuraifan

First two picks, lets cash! Apologies that my AFL pick is late, I was busy with the write up.

#1
AFL - Round 17
North Melbourne v Essendon
Line - North Melbourne -13.5
$1.00 @ 1.92

#2
NRL - Round 20
Nth Queensland Cowboys v Newcastle Knights
Total Points - o46.0
$2.00 @ 1.90

Went 1-1.
+$0.80

Bankroll: $10.80

Sure it wasn't a lot but any profit is good profit. The AFL was a joke, North Melbourne should have won I didn't foresee A win by Essendon. Personally I reckon Essendon is one of the worst teams in the competition but that's just me.

**Samuraifan** · 07-24-10, 08:32 AM

Only 2 plays on the early MLB games, leaning Texas and Boston after briefly looking at last games will have other plays up later tonight.

#3
MLB
New York Mets At Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers (Monaster) -1.5
$1.00 @ 2.60

Notes:
- Pelfrey is 15.30 ERA in his last 3 games, giving up 28 hits and 17 runs in only 10 innings
- Mets are 1-4 in last 5 games
- Mets bullpen is 5.16 ERA on the road
- Dodgers bullpen is 3.78 ERA at home

#4
MLB
Colorado Rockies At Philadelphia Phillies
Colorado Rockies (Jimenez)
$2.00 @ 1.66

Notes:
- Rockies send Jimenez (15-1, 2.38 ERA) to the mound to end a 3 match losing streak
- Although Jimenez is 5.59 ERA last 3 games, it was against teams of hard hitters (Florida, St. Louis, San Fran.)
- Kendrick is 1-2 when starting against Colorado has an ERA of 6.68 and a WHIP of 1.742.

LETS BUILD THAT BANKROLL!

**Samuraifan** · 07-24-10, 07:24 PM

My plays are a bit late, I just managed to lock in my Giants play. I will do the write up now.

#5
MLB
San Francisco Giants At Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants (Bumgarner)
$2.00 @ 1.91

Notes:
- Giants have now won 13 of their last 16 overall, 6 of their last 7 on the road and 5 in a row against the Diamondbacks
- Bumgarner going 3-0 with an ERA of only 0.92 in his last 3 starts
- Arizona club that is just 2-9 in its last 11 games versus a southpaw starter

#6
MLB
Boston Red Sox At Seattle Mariners
Boston Red Sox (Lester) -1.5
$3.00 @ 1.83

Notes:
- Boston is 7-4 against Seattle over the last 3 seasons
- This year Seattle is 18-41 after coming off a loss, 4-15 in July games
- Pauley has lost his last 3 starts: White Sox 1-6, Yankees 1-6, Yankees 8-19

#7 PARLAY
MLB
Boston Red Sox At Seattle Mariners
Boston Red Sox (Lester) -1.5

AFL
Melbourne v Sydney
Sydney -8.5

MUTI ODDS: $2 @ 3.51

Notes:
- Read MLB Write up above
- Last time: Sydney 10.8 (68) def Melbourne 6.14 (50), Round 17, 2009 at Manuka Oval
- Last time at Venue: Sydney 14.11 (95) def Melbourne 10.3 (63), Round 19, 2006 at the MCG
- Swans haven't lost to the Demons at the 'G since 2001.
- Melbourne won 1 game of past 5, 1 draw against Collingwood. The win against lowly Essesdon side.

**Samuraifan** · 07-25-10, 12:17 AM

#8
NRL - Round 20
Manly Sea Eagles v Wests Tigers
8:00 Minutes or later First Try
$1 @ 1.95

#9
AFL - Round 17
Port Adelaide v Adelaide
Adelaide - 20.5
$2 @ 1.92

My picks not going so well at the moment, a lot of surprises this week especially in the AFL and the MLB this week

**Samuraifan** · 07-25-10, 05:48 AM

Bad set of picks, I hope everyone faded me there.

Day: 2-5 (-$7.23)
Total: 3-6 (-$6.43)

Current Bankroll: $3.57

**Samuraifan** · 07-25-10, 07:15 AM

#9
MLB
Colorado Rockies At Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies (Happ) -1.5
$1.00 @ 2.55

#10
MLB
San Francisco Giants At Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants (Lincecum) -1.5
$2.00 @ 2.10

I am not going to bother with too much of a write up today, really the picks are quite straight forward and are clear mismatches. Phillies should win here rather convincingly as the Rockies sent out Jimmez yesterday but he wasn't able to get the job done - they ended up losing 2-10. I am sure they are feeling the loss and won't get up today - expect another big win by the Phillies.

Without going into too much details about the trends that favour the Giants. Giants send out Lincecum today, with him on the mound expect a sweep. Diamondbacks have lost the last 3 against the Giants and I don't see anything other than that increasing to 4. Sure, Enright is a good pitcher but without any run support a good pitcher can still lose - look at what happened to the Red Sox's J. Lester.

**Samuraifan** · 07-26-10, 03:32 AM

Looks like I busted, I got my picks right just not the run line.

I'll restart this project when I get a little more faith in my picks stay tuned folks.

Final Stats

Day: 0-2 (-$3.00)
Total: 3-8 (-$9.43)

Current Bankroll: $0.57

**rav_himself** · 07-26-10, 03:41 AM

bad luck buddy it happens to the best of us

keep hittin the books
lets get it