Tiger Woods to win a golf tournament in 2010

[andywend]

What do you all think is a fair price for this prop?

Will Tiger Woods win a golf tournament in 2010?

Yes

No

Prop has action regardless if Woods plays in a tournament this year or not.

I placed a huge bet at my local casino on this.

Please respond back with prices for the Yes and No and after a few responses I will post the price I got.

Thanks.

[Art Vandeleigh]

Well, using the Intrade contract "When will Tiger Woods next play professional golf" contract as a guide, the contract is showing FV to be about 65% chance he'll play by May, and roughly (very roughly) 85% he'll play by the end of August.

So I'll take a stab and say there's a 75% chance he'll play at least 8 tournaments this year.

I'll give him a 1 in 4 chance of winning each tourny he enters.

So that would be about 0.75 x 0.87 (prob. of winning at least 1 tourny in 8) = 65% chance Tiger wins a tournament this year.

[andywend]

Art,
Thanks for your reply.

I got much better than +185 on the NO part of this prop.

FWIW, I believe Intrade is over-estimating his chances of playing in the respective months.

Tiger is a mental basketcase who obviously has no idea how to handle this situation.

Even if he does play, will he be his usual dominant self right off the shelf? I doubt it.