Cycling Picks

**icecapper** · 05-05-16, 02:05 PM

Giro d'Italia to win Alejandro Valverde +675.

Stage 1 Tom Dumoulin +175.

**icecapper** · 05-06-16, 04:22 PM

We cashed Dumoulin in Stage 1 with him winning by less than a second in the opening prologue.

Stage Two sets up a flat sprint with all of the heavy hitters contending. Marcel Kittleis without question the best sprinter in the field, and has a strong team to lead him out to the line. -130 is too steep to pull the trigger however, as the field is strong and strange crashes seem to happen in early grand tour stages. Elia Viviani is worth a sprinkle a +800.

My main plays are on a few matchups
Viviani -120 vs Caleb Ewen. Technical finish sets up well for Viviani, and Ewen has struggled greatly since the tour down under.
Arnaud Demare +100 vs Moreno Hofland. Demare has the same team train here that helped him win two stages this season.

**icecapper** · 05-07-16, 07:05 PM

Giro d'Italia Stage 3

Kittel cruised to a decisive victory in stage 2, with a chance at taking the pink jersey in stage 3 is a heavy favourite at -188. This stage is a quite a bit trickier though, with a 9% climb and crosswinds sprinters teams will be looking to split the field.

Predictions: We were 1-1 yesterday with Demare hitting and Viviani fading at the finish.
Moreno Hoffland +138 vs Giacomo Nizzolo. Team Jumbo has the most to gain with being the final day in Holland.
Roberto Ferrari +100 vs Jurgen Rolandst. Ferrari is a good puncher and suits well with the climb and expected crosswind.
Andre Greipel +700. Worth a shot here as Kittel only needs a podium finish to obtain the GC lead.

**icecapper** · 05-09-16, 05:11 PM

Giro d'Italia Stage 4

After a rest day the teams begin their first day in Italy with a tough 200km stage along the coast with 4 mid-range climbs. Kittel will look for another sprint finish to hang onto pink after two stage wins in the first three days of the Giro. I think this stage sets up for the punchers of the bunch who have the ability to climb, unlike the beefier pure sprinters like Kittel and Griepel.

Predictions: We split again on stage 3, some good matchups on the board for stage 4.
Sonny Colbrelli -142 vs Alexey Tsatevich. Stage sets up perfectly for Colbrelli, who is a climber with sprint power. On him at +800 for the stage win as well.
Sascha Modolo +138 vs Giacomo Nizzolo. Modolo will fair well up the mountain, and should outsprint the majority of those left with him at the line.

**icecapper** · 05-10-16, 03:23 PM

Giro d'Italia Stage 5

With Kittel losing the pink jersey to Doumolin, he'll get another shot at a stage win with a 233km mostly flat stage. The major climb comes at the start of the stage, which means the breakaway will have little chance to win with the sprinters team pulling the peloton. The finish is extremely technical, and the sprint will be slightly uphill which makes it more difficult for Kittel and his Etixx train.

Predictions: 1-1 again yesterday with Nizzolo edging Modolo by one place in the bunch sprint. Some good value here with the technical uphill finish there are a few guys undervalued with this specific skill set.
Sascha Modolo +125 vs Giocomo Nizzolo. We'll go back to this favourable matchup with Modolo known for loving the uphill sprint.
Caleb Ewan +225 vs Marcel Kittel. Swing for the fences here as I really believe Kittel will struggle during this finish. Stage is very similar to the one that Ewan won at the Vuelta last year. I'll also be on Modolo +1400 and Ewan +2000 for the stage win. Should be a beauty.

**icecapper** · 05-11-16, 05:13 PM

Giro d'Italia Stage 6

Kittel was dropped up the final climb as we had hoped for. This opened up a lively bunch sprint with the gorilla Andre Greipel turning back the clock and winning by 5 bike lengths. Stage 6 brings the first mountain test with the climbers battling with the final 500m at a 8% gradient. Stage sets up perfectly for Alejandro Valverde with his climbing prowess and his ability to sprint for the line. It will be difficult for him to distance himself from other GC contending teams however, opening the door for a variety of climbers to go for the stage win. I expect punching climbers like Visconte, Fuglsang, Roche, and Moser all to be in contention.

Predictions: We're heating up here, hitting two underdogs with Ewan benefiting from Kittel being dropped coming in for us at +244.
Rafal Majka +120 vs Rigoberto Uran. Everyone is expecting Uran to win at some point, but has shown terrible form in 2016 despite being a GC contender. Majka will contend for the stage win.
Jakob Fuglsang +150 vs Steven Kruijkwijk. Fuglsang fairs well on mountain stages with fast finishes, and Kruijwik will have a tough time distancing himself from the GC teams.
Sergey Firsanov +138 vs Gianluca Brambilla. Firsanov is another good longshot stage contender, as the young Russian has no fear and seems to get better as the mountain gets tougher.

**icecapper** · 05-12-16, 04:35 PM

Giro d'Italia Stage 7

Stage 6 was a scramble with Tim Wellens being the benefactor en route to an impressive stage win. Stage 7 is another day for the sprinters where Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel are without question the fastest two men in the peloton and will go head to head for the stage. Technical finish with 4 90 degree turns in the final 2km.

Predictions: We're on fire now, going 2-1 hitting +150 and +138 underdogs. We were half a bike length from going 3-0, nonetheless there is plenty of value on the board daily to be exploited.
Andre Greipel -120 vs Andre Demare. The gorilla showed he was back in stage 5, and Demare has no chance on a flat against one of the premier sprinters in the world. Only chance for Demare is getting his teammates primed for a flawless sprint train, but Greipel's team Lotto is man for man much stronger.

**icecapper** · 05-13-16, 04:45 PM

Giro d'Italia Stage 8

Griepel was the benefactor of Kittel suffering from a puncture in the final few kms, meaning we were able to hit our only play of the day. Stage 8 they hit the mountains and the pink jersey will be in the balance. The stage concludes with a tough narrow climb where positioning will be key heading into it.

Predictions: Sitting at 9-4 +8.71 it's been a fun opening week of the Giro.
Jakob Fuglsang +175 vs Vincenzo Nibili. Great value here for Fuglsang, who has been in great form thus far. Nibili is a good descender and we have to hope his team will continue to fail him.
Gianluca Brambilla +163 vs Bob Jungles. Brambilla is far enough down the GC that he may be allowed to get away and go for the stage win. Jungles is only 35 seconds behind Dumoulin for the lead, so he won't be afforded the same amount of space.
Alejandro Valverde +550 to win stage. Sets up perfectly for the Spaniard, and with team movistar resting for the first two stages, this could be the perfect opportunity to gain a stranglehold on the race.

**icecapper** · 05-14-16, 08:25 PM

Giro d'Italia Stage 9

Pink jersey changed hands as our boy Brambilla brilliantly took it with the stage win. His glory shouldn't last long though as a 40km hilly time trial on stage 9 plays right into Tom Dumoulin's hands.

Predictions: 1-1 in stage 9. Predicting the time trial can be tough, we'll look to past performances to seek an edge.
Tanel Kangert -120 vs Andrey Amador. Kangaroo finished on the podium during the 2013 TT which is very similar to this one.
Steven Kruiswijk +138 vs Vincenzo Nibili. Once again we see Nibili overvalued for a poor TT performer. Kruiswijk is in great form and this course plays right into his style.
Ilner Zackarin vs -190 vs Rigaberto Uran. We usually don't lay this steep of a price, but I have Zackarin at least two minutes better than Uran over this TT.
Tom Dumoulin +110 to win stage. Class of the field, and has been preparing for this Time Trial all off season. Will smoke Cancellara and the rest of the field to regain the pink jersey heading into the rest day.

**icecapper** · 05-16-16, 03:35 PM

Giro d'Italia Stage 10

After a wild rainy time trial followed by a rest day, the boys will have to get their climbing legs back out for a gruelling 219km jaunt which finished up the Pien Dal Falco climb.

Predictions: We had our first losing day during the Stage 9 TT, mostly because of the rain which effected only the 2nd group.
Michele Scarponi-138 vs Mikael Nieve. Scarponi is an elite climber and will usher Nibili all the way to the top.
Ryder Hesjadel -144 vs Kanstantin Sivtsov. The former Giro winner Hesjadel will dig deep to stay with the GC contenders here.

**icecapper** · 05-17-16, 10:53 PM

Giro d'Italia Stage 11

The Breakaway came through again in stage 10, with team movistar flexing it's muscles and starting to take over the race. Bob Jungels is up to defend the pink jersey now, and faces a tough stage with a cat 4 climb late in stage 11.

Predictions: 1-1 Yesterday, we'll continue to lean on Valverde and movistar to control the peloton.
Tim Wellens -150 Adam Hansen. Buzz is that this could be the stage for Wellens to attack.
Sonny Colbrelli -112 Enrico Battiglin. Fast man if he makes it up the climb will also be in contention.

**icecapper** · 05-18-16, 05:51 PM

Giro d'Italia Stage 12

After a few mountain stages and a time trial the sprinters will have their last chance at stage glory with 182km flat route which ends with two laps of a tricky narrow circuit. The fastest man in the peloton Marcel Kittel has packed it in, meaning every team will look to put their fast man into contention. Lotto's Andre Greipel will be the man to beat in this one.

Predictions: A perfect 2-0 day in stage 11. This Giro has been even more profitable than what I first imagined.
Matteo Trentin +100 vs Nicola Ruffoni. With Kittel gone, Trentin will be the beneficiary of the strong Etixx sprint train, he's got a sneaky quick punch in his own right and will be looking to prove he can do it without his superstar teammate.
Sascha Modolo +120 vs Giacomo Nizzolo. Nizzolo has had the upper hand so far, but this is the type of sprint where the stronger team wins Modolo will have his running mate Roberto Ferrari take him to the line.

**icecapper** · 05-19-16, 08:33 PM

Giro d'Italia Stage 13

Greipel took the sprint finish as expected, and now with all of the fast men packing it in we head to the mountains. Stage 13 features 4 climbs meaning the GC contenders will try to distance themselves from the field. Nibali vs Valverde from here on out.

Predictions: Frustrating 1-1 for us in stage 12. Modolo's team delivered him to the line where he quit when he saw he wouldn't win, leaving Nizzolo to pass him 3 bike lengths from the finish.
Esteban Chaves -130 vs Ilnur Zakarin. The youngster Chaves has climbed and descended with the big boys, and Zakarin will kill himself to get his teammate Nibali over the mountain.
Demenico Pozzovivo +110 vs Rigoberto Uran. We'll continue to fade the deteriorating Uran, and with the pure climber Pozzovivo a healthy chunck down, he'll be allowed the freedom to go for the stage.
Steven Kruijswick -132 vs Rafael Majka. Kruijswick's impressive Giro continues, should be with the lead group until the end.

**icecapper** · 05-20-16, 04:43 PM

Giro d'Italia Stage 14

Moivstar and Astana have asserted themselves as the two strongest teams in the field, and as we hit the meat of the Giro stage 14 will continue to cater to the best 9 man units. The riders will be hit hard with 210km mountain stage which starts with 94km straight uphill. The weak will be weeded out early.

Predictions: Hard luck 1-2 in Stage 13. All of the riders in the pack get the same time, so although finishing a wheel behind their matchup means nothing to the riders, it cost us the Kruijswick and Pozzovivo bets.
Estaban Chaves -138 vs Rafael Majka. The pint sized Columbian dusted Zakarin yesterday, and should to the same to Majka.
Ryder Hesjadel -150 vs Hubert Dupont. The 2013 Giro champ has given it everything to stay with the top GC contenders.

**icecapper** · 05-21-16, 03:07 PM

Giro d"italia Stage 15

Stage 14 was one of the wildest mountain stages you'll ever see, which ended with our man Esteban Chaves taking the win and Steven Kruijwijk burying Vincenzo Nibali on his way to the pink jersey. A Giro classic now comes in the form of a mountain time trial before the rest day, and all the usual suspects will be in contention.

Predictions: We've tailed Chaves successfully all race and he cashed in again. Unfortunately Ryder Hesjadel dropped out of the race due to sickness. 1-1 day.
Vincenzo Nibali -130 vs Steven Kruikwijk. Everyone is down on the Italian champ after he was dropped last stage, but this is right up his ally and he's proved himself before up this climb.
Estaban Chaves -188 vs Rafael Majka. We definitely aren't getting the value we did earlier but the 119 pound Chaves has proven to be the best climber in the field.

**icecapper** · 05-23-16, 08:06 PM

Giro d'italia Stage 16

The day after the rest day always presents a questions to how the riders legs will feel. This stage had two monster climbs where the GC contenders will battle it out and try to reel back time on pink jersey holder Steven Kruijwijk. Good shot at the breakaway taking the stage here.

Predictions: Nibali was the wrong horse to hop on in the time trial, breaking his chain and losing big time. Last TT we have to worry about.
Damiano Cunego -168 vs Stefan Denifl. Cunego will give everything he has to hang onto the King of the Mountains jersey.
Vincenzo Nibali -130 vs Rafael Majka. Nibs will have his 4 teammates with him all the way up the climb, Majka has been hanging on for dear life the past week.

**icecapper** · 05-24-16, 09:15 PM

Giro d'Italia Stage 17

Steven Kruijwijk continues to prove himself to be the best form in the Tour. We get a day for the sprinters here for those who haven't left, and there are a dozen or so candidates that can win this stage.

Predictions: 1-1 As we go down with Nibali blowing up. Hopefully we can hit some sweet dogs like we did in the first week.
Sonny Colbrelli +163 vs Heinrich Haussler. Colbrelli has been waiting for a stage like this, and Haussler won't have much gas left.
Rick Zabel +120 vs Ivan Savitsky. Zabel has some punch in his legs, and always seems to be at the front to claim a top 10 on these stages.

**icecapper** · 05-25-16, 05:38 PM

Giro d'Italia Stage 18

Longest stage in the race clocking in at 240km with a category 2 climb just enough to separate the mountain goats from the rest. Good stage for the breakaway to succeed, I'm guessing there will be 20+ climbers that go out for stage glory.

Predictions: Good 1-1 underdog day in the sprint. Diego Ulissi will be the sexy pick to win another climbing breakaway stage.
Sergei Firsanov -120 vs David Lopez. The Russian is a perfect contender to win the stage, he'll be there in the end.
Davide Formolo +125 vs Joseph Dombrowski. The youngster is a perfect puncher to solo attack the climb.

**icecapper** · 05-26-16, 05:58 PM

Giro d'Italia Stage 19

The historic Cima Coppi climb is the feature of today's stage, meaning the King of the Mountain contenders will all be in the break. Big day for Nibali, Chavez, and Valverde if they want any shot at reeling in Kruijswijk for the pink.

Predictions: 1-1 with another nice underdog pick Formolo hitting. The breakaway has failed in the last 3 Giro's during this stage.
Damiano Cunego -120 vs Stephan Denifl. Now or never for Cunego if he wants to retain the blue KOM jersey.
Tanel Kangert -110 vs Giovanti Visconti. Kangert is undervalued here, will be amongst the leaders until the end.

**icecapper** · 05-27-16, 09:50 PM

Giro d'Italia Stage 20

The Cima Coppi stage was wilder than expected, with Kruijswijk crashing and losing the pink to our man Chaves. Stage 20 is a crazy one, with the entire 134km spent climbing or descending. Breakaway has a good shot with none other than Diego Ulissi.

Predictions. Our first 0-2 of the Giro, the matchup odds are pretty bad so it's best to tread lightly.
Esteban Chaves +163 vs Vincenzo Nibali. Everyone is back on Nibali's bandwagon with the strong form he showed in stage 19. Let's not forget that Chaves has been far and away the best climber in this race. So instead of hedging our future pick on Chaves, we'll let it ride from here on out. Go Columbia!

**icecapper** · 05-28-16, 10:54 PM

Giro D'Italia Stage 21

Well Nibali did what we feared, he attacked hard and gave us a superhuman performance to take pink. In the cycling world questions will be asked how does he rebound from a horrible day by smashing it the next two? You may find your answer within the dark history of cycling.

Predictions: We're sitting at 20-18 +6.4 for the Giro. We'll take that all day with the unpredictability heading into the final sprint stage.
Giacomo Nizzolo +198 vs Field. Usually don't like the field bets, but Lampre has the best sprint train and fastest man left. Nizzolo will smoke the field in the final showcase stage.

**icecapper** · 07-01-16, 12:03 PM

Tour de France 2016

Nairo Quintana +193 to win.

After 3 years of improving and getting closer, I think Quintana will defy the odds and take his first tour win. He was 4:20 behind Froome in 2013 and just 1:13 down in 2015. In between times, he won the Giro. The time is right for the Colombian to win. I know that Froome has the best helpers, but if Quintana is the strongest, he will win.