Headed to Keeneland in the morning

**joeyp1222** · 10-21-10, 08:56 PM

have fun and play 50 cent triples play a top horse over 4 horses for $6 a race have fun

**Dawgfan1980** · 10-21-10, 09:01 PM

joey, help me out with some of the lingo. Are you saying to play one horse $2 across the board as opposed to playing 4 horses? Or, are you talking about some type of different exotic bet?

Thanks

**mikemca** · 10-21-10, 09:57 PM

There is a trainer who has a horse in 5 of the 9 races tomorrow named Mike Maker.If you bet his horses to win and place you should either win some or break even.I'm sure 2 or 3 of them will win if not more.This way you only have to root for 1 horse per race instead of watching the whole field.

**mikemca** · 10-21-10, 09:58 PM

It will let you have fun without getting too invested

**joeyp1222** · 10-21-10, 09:59 PM

Originally posted by Dawgfan1980

joey, help me out with some of the lingo. Are you saying to play one horse $2 across the board as opposed to playing 4 horses? Or, are you talking about some type of different exotic bet?

Thanks

exoctic bets 50 cent trifectas

for example if you like the 3 horse , use him on top as your key horse and pick 4 more horses to put under for example

3 with 1-2-5-7 with 1-2-5-7 this bet would cost you $6 per race x 9 races for $54 for the day

**mikemca** · 10-21-10, 10:01 PM

Besides that just watch the tote board because just about every favorite is winning at Keeneland

**Dawgfan1980** · 10-21-10, 10:17 PM

Does the contrarian theory work at all with handicapping these horses? Maybe pay attention to some horses that aren't getting bet down, to get some value?

Thanks for the advice guys. You do not know how much I appreciate this.

I do not mind getting invested, I just do not want to go in blindly.

**mikemca** · 10-22-10, 07:21 AM

Originally posted by Dawgfan1980

Does the contrarian theory work at all with handicapping these horses? Maybe pay attention to some horses that aren't getting bet down, to get some value? Thanks for the advice guys. You do not know how much I appreciate this. I do not mind getting invested, I just do not want to go in blindly.

It does but not profitably at Keeneland .The horses taking money have been winning at an alarming rate.

**joeyp1222** · 10-22-10, 08:06 AM

I will have my picks fr keenland up in my thread around 10 am est

**str** · 10-22-10, 08:54 AM

As the weather cools,the track will be worked ( harrows going around) more often.
A lot of tracks will need to grade the track from the rail out every few days so the surface won't all go towards the inside. They try to keep the depth of the track the same.Most tracks that deal with more severe elements of weather, will grade on Fridays with a heavy grade and again with a lighter grade( amount of cushion being pushed back up towards the outside but not over the crown ( were the track peaks before it angles off towards the outside.You do not race there, only walk to and from the paddock) on Saturday.This is because typically, the races start earlier on Saturdays and it takes to long to move all that dirt.They can not start much before 10:30 AM because horses are still on the track exercising.So they do a little more Friday to help Saturday.
With the premier races being run on Saturday's and many more eyes on the results of those races,more so than races run during the week,Saturday is a day that is quite important to have the track fast and quick.
The result is that starting in the fall and most certainly in the winter the inside will have an advantage on Fridays. Not so much speed but horses that have inside trips.
If you do the .50 cent triples watch early on for some price horses 9-1 or better that stay inside the entire way and finish stronger than there form suggests and you have found something to work with.Maybe play whoever and put long shots under like,2,1345 or whatever.
Not saying it will happen today but especially on the east coast(Md.,N.Y.,C.T.,Phila.,etc.) it will happen because it has happened for the decades. Used to do it for a living.Did it a long time.
Good Luck and enjoy a fun day at the races.

**str** · 10-24-10, 06:41 PM

Originally posted by str

As the weather cools,the track will be worked ( harrows going around) more often.
A lot of tracks will need to grade the track from the rail out every few days so the surface won't all go towards the inside. They try to keep the depth of the track the same.Most tracks that deal with more severe elements of weather, will grade on Fridays with a heavy grade and again with a lighter grade( amount of cushion being pushed back up towards the outside but not over the crown ( were the track peaks before it angles off towards the outside.You do not race there, only walk to and from the paddock) on Saturday.This is because typically, the races start earlier on Saturdays and it takes to long to move all that dirt.They can not start much before 10:30 AM because horses are still on the track exercising.So they do a little more Friday to help Saturday.
With the premier races being run on Saturday's and many more eyes on the results of those races,more so than races run during the week,Saturday is a day that is quite important to have the track fast and quick.
The result is that starting in the fall and most certainly in the winter the inside will have an advantage on Fridays. Not so much speed but horses that have inside trips.
If you do the .50 cent triples watch early on for some price horses 9-1 or better that stay inside the entire way and finish stronger than there form suggests and you have found something to work with.Maybe play whoever and put long shots under like,2,1345 or whatever.
Not saying it will happen today but especially on the east coast(Md.,N.Y.,C.T.,Phila.,etc.) it will happen because it has happened for the decades. Used to do it for a living.Did it a long time.
Good Luck and enjoy a fun day at the races.

Does anyone read charts?
Hello?

**zebra58** · 10-25-10, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by str

Does anyone read charts?
Hello?

str are you suggesting a track bias took place on fri or sat? if so please point out suspected races

thanks

**str** · 10-27-10, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by zebra58

str are you suggesting a track bias took place on fri or sat? if so please point out suspected races

thanks

Without watching the races and the replays all I have is the charts.Friday was the only day I even paid attention.
If you go race by race and read where the horses were throughout the race it reads to me that horses that spent more time inside than outside did very well.
Further,the horses that spent more time outside seemed to struggle more.
Not completely,but over all.
Go race by race and see if you agree .
Obviously, not Turf.
Lastly,IMO a horse does not need to finish on the rail or stay on the rail the entire time to benefit from uneven surfaces.The same can be said in reverse if the rail seems dead.What I look for is if they spent 2/3 or 3/4 of the race on the advantageous portion of the surface.
Also, crazy exactas ( 6th race) that pay four figures do not happen in most cases without the long shots benefiting from something ,be it a torrid early pace or an advantageous trip.
Hope that helps.

**zebra58** · 10-27-10, 08:33 PM

track bias more likely on dirt tracks, track seemed fair sat, seen a few strange ones friday but that happens and the rail is the shortest way home, not saying you're wrong but i see no value playing into minor track bias on poly, but if you see anything please post, good luck in the bcup

**sportscardheaven** · 10-27-10, 08:53 PM

Very cool. A horse racing forum on this site.

**str** · 10-28-10, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by zebra58

track bias more likely on dirt tracks, track seemed fair sat, seen a few strange ones friday but that happens and the rail is the shortest way home, not saying you're wrong but i see no value playing into minor track bias on poly, but if you see anything please post, good luck in the bcup

I used to keep a daily chart of any bias or no bias at my home track.Once you have a grading system in place ,it is easy to grade each day on it's own .
As horses run back several weeks later you can go back and note the dates of there previous races on your racing form.It is info that you have created that no one else has.Being as you are playing into parimutuel it becomes an edge.
When you see that a 5-2 shot that ran poorly with no viable excuse on the form is, this time, 5-1 against similar, most others caulk the race up to a bounce or just was not his day.Indeed ,you know that the horse took the worst of it,surface wise.
The best plays for me were not bias days because it is often difficult to figure out who gets the inside trip, but days when certain horses ran back on even surfaces after running against the bias.Also helps explain horses that jump up at 10-1 or whatever and run well.Will they continue to over achieve? Probably not, if the positive move forward was aided with a dream trip with a bias. Better yet, they run against 2 or 3 times and then are with.Like I said previously,rare to get these when the weather is manageable, but in the N.E. in the winter ,biases are everywhere.
I took into account everything from slight to heavy biases both dirt and turf and while I left the game before poly existed,to me, I wouldn't care if they were running down the street .
My thought is, that if the fastest guy in the world and I raced ,and he ran on the beach in loose sand and I ran on pavement , I would keep it close or win . And you could time me running with a sun dial.

Best of luck. Don't forget to enter Reloads contest for BC if you already have not.