Is there any type of systems that have been working for anybody?
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if you find one let us all know
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Well, I'm working on something but was just curious if there was anything else out thereComment -
There are a few out there but nothing real good from what I've foundComment -
Yeah I could see that! I've been working on a few but its just so hard to get the % of bank roll you need to bet each time because you can't predict the horses post time oddsComment -
The other thing you can do is look for patterns of winners by odds, and post position.
Even the 4 at hollywood r9 on Thurs was a good winner just by profile.Comment -
the trick is not to play all selections from any handicapper. handicap your own, or choose someone to follow and pick your spots plays and you may win a few and be ahead. i myself have developed my own system that i use but only play a few races per day. one of them is my best bet which the top horse hits at high %, exoctics, when but foolishly, will kill ya and betting chalks every race will kill ya.
good luck to all in your choicesComment -
thanks for all the reply's!Comment -
very tough to find such a system. These are animals running.Comment -
There are NO systems that work.
Best advice I can give is to follow 1 racetrack and get to know it and the horses,trainers and jockeys that work there.
Watch replays. Look for a track bias. It is not a coincidence when 4 or 5 #11s win in a day on dirt. See May 1st @ Churchill Downs.More importantly, see April 30th. The track was in desperate need of grading for an even surface on the 29th but you cannot grade mud.So because of gravity and the pitch in the track the inside was deeper than the outside.The result was that every duel that took place was won by the outside horse on the 30th.
They were able to grade the track on the morning of May 1st but they were only able to get it to the point where the inside was not certain defeat.
It was still closers and mainly outside and Borel was the only guy to stay near the rail and win.( 3 times)
Everything else was way outside.
Can't explain the Borel thing.Weird.Comment -
Str is right.
There is no quick and easy system - it's the old cliche - what you put in - you get out.
I always work with Gary Player in my ear - he always said "The harder I work - the luckier I get !"
And that is racing handicapping - the more hours you get to know and concentrate on 1 or 2 tracks - the luckier you will get.
I have an infant system at the moment and it's pulling these stats - don't know if they are good.
I concentrate on the top tracks and just the little lower ones.
So far my smaple size is
Races 547
My tips have hit
Win 251 = 46%
Place 360 = 66%
Show 417 = 76%
The problem is that they are usually at the front end of the market - so show dividends are normally 2.10 !
Will never become a millionaire betting on those !
But does my research sound promising to the usual yankee tipsters and stats ?Comment -
Thanks for all of theses statements! I have no clue about horse racing! I have systems I use for Professional Sports but was wanting to get into this because of the races starting @ 12 pm everyday! ThanksComment -
Get rid of the show stats - unless you have tens of thousands to play with - you're never going to get rich betting anything to show. Especially at the top end of the market ... and at 2.10 returns ... you should be hitting closer to 95% to profit from those .... If the horses were priced around 4-1 - 6-1 you would probably make something betting win/place ... but without much more info ... its impossible to see if you have something here or not ... you do seem to be beating the "Blindly bet the favorite" stat of around 30-35% .. so you may have something ... how many days is the sample size from ... ? Are you betting every race or just a few from each card ... ? what is the average win payout from those selections ? What is the basis for the system .. is it speed based, form based, trainer/jockey based ... with another one or two rules you may be able to craft something that could show a small grinding profit.
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the best tip is stay away from horses... and dogs even worse. i did this last year i did one week of handicapping dog races.. i lost 300 that week playing every day.. then i did the old i played 10 races and box 1,3,5,7 cost me 240 dollars for a 10 race daay i did that every day for a week and came out 1400 ahead, so i decided then that i suck at handicapping dogs..Comment -
Hi, started on 30th April - the avg win odds to $2 stake is $3.80 = 9/10favs.
I also break my stats down by type of races - so I break down via allowances, aoc, maiden claimers, claimers, stater allowances, maiden special weights.
At the moment, I seem to be hitting:-
Allowances 46% WIN
AOC 60%
Claimers 50%
MSW 49%
Stakes Races 56%
So, I am only into a 1 month trial - the one thing I like about US Racing is that nearly all the tracks are similar 1 mile ovals - so the ratings I use - you can trust when comparing different performances to 1mile tracks, the bullring 5f tracks against each other.
Yankee racing is a better product to gamble on than Brit racing as every raccourse in UK is completely different - so it's harder to compare data.
I feel I need to trial this for at least 3 months and get about 1,500 or 2,000 races in the book - to iron out any statistical freak results before I can declare my system and stats are dependable.Comment -
If you have them all wrote down ..... i strongly suggest you go back over past results and exclude any meetings where the track was "sloppy" or "muddy" and see what that does to your results .... just that one simple step may push you into profit ...
Getting the horses on an exchange rather than using the tote will also probably push you into profit .. the fav of the majority of US races can be backed on betfair for around 2.3 - 2.5 on the morning of the race to small stakes .... if you are based in the us - use ehorsex ... you can often get a price of 2.20 or more about a 1.8 horse ....
If the ratings are speed based (byer or bris or whatever) also look at discounting any horse that won last time out with a speed figure that was 1. at least 10-15 points higher than his previous run. 2. Was the horses highest ever speed figure (I generally discount maiden races as lots of horses can and do improve each race)
A couple of things to look at for ya .... hope they help ...Comment -
Dear Jw, That's a great help.
As I am a stupid Brit - I have been monitoring Betfair and have been thinking about a martingale system on any of the class of races that give me a 50%+ win strike rate.
By the old martingale system of 1-2-4-8-16-32 - so far after analysing my small sample size - losing streaks are small - so if you have 100 units and only use up 65 of those units - a long term profit could look realistic.
One thing I like about Betfair is if you know which horse you want to get at about 2.3 - you can sit and wait as normally these horses hit that price before crashing down to near Tote prices when Brit TV concentrates on the race.
As I say, I think I need 1000 races before I can start throwing money at it !
Before, my job got into the way - I did try to couple 2 sets of ratings - the one I use and Ultimate Brisnet PPS - when the horse has an advantage of 6pts + - but it took a lot of time to put the data in and to cross reference the 2 sets of data.
But, if both sets of independent ratings suggested that the same horse would run well - it normally did - I would have to get all my old ratings out and back check.
So, due to my time restraints - just using 1 set of ratings I trust and have used on & off for 10 years - it helps me get a good picture of the races and my tips.
But, I like US Racing as you can quickly build a good sample size and you can really get some good consistent results with the data.
many thanks for the kind wordsComment -
Me too ....
I'd avoid Martingale though .... this is interesting reading ...
If you have a system with a strike rate of 50% ... you can expect a losing run at some point over the course of 1000 selections of 10 losses in a row ....
If you are using martingale .. and assuming you want to be able to still bet after your first 10-in-a-row loss ...
You will need ...
1+2+4+8+16+32+64+128+256+512 = $1023 to cover a losing run of 10 .... double this to be able to do it all again ....
and remember - this is all to win just $1 from an even money shot ...
If you want to win $100 per shot ... you will need a bank of around $210,000
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