All things 2024 KY DERBY- Picks and Thoughts on the Big Race

[Easy-Rider 66]

Fierceness breaks from Post 17 and is 5/2 ML Fav. Sierra Leone breaks from post 2 and is 3/1 2nd choice. 15 horses 20 ML or higher. Please feel free to post your selections and thoughts on the race and the Oaks as well. THX

[Easy-Rider 66]

[Easy-Rider 66]

Above is the Time Form Pace projector for the Derby. As you can see they predict a fast pace.

[Easy-Rider 66]

[Easy-Rider 66]

[mrginandtonic]

Andy Serling likes Domestic Product ML 30-1 on top according to the video that I saw.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thx for the Info Mr. G&T. Will give Domestic Product a look later in week

[mrginandtonic]

Thx for the Info Mr. G&T. Will give Domestic Product a look later in week

He gave some good reasoning for not taking short price on Fierceness and Sierra Leone. I most likely will play against them too. Will look at more later.

[Easy-Rider 66]

He gave some good reasoning for not taking short price on Fierceness and Sierra Leone. I most likely will play against them too. Will look at more later.

yeah may cover with the 2 favs especially Fierceness. But will try and beat them for sure. thx.

[stevenash]

Good thread ER!

[BOA12]

Playing $1 EX 17-18/8111718 $6

#18- 3-5-6 $14

BOL2ALL

[Easy-Rider 66]

Good thread ER!

Thx Nash hit us up with your thoughts if you play.

[Easy-Rider 66]

playing $1 ex 17-18/8111718 $6

#18- 3-5-6 $14

bol2all

gl boa12

[JBEX]

I'm looking at 3 horses but will narrow to a minimum of 2 by thursday..as mentioned in my thread going to try and beat fierceness


1 dornoch (20-1)
7 honor marie (20-1)
11 forever young (10-1)

[Easy-Rider 66]

Ok JBEX thx for posting will give those ponies a look

[stevenash]

I'm looking at 3 horses but will narrow to a minimum of 2 by thursday..as mentioned in my thread going to try and beat fierceness


1 dornoch (20-1)
7 honor marie (20-1)
11 forever young (10-1)

How could anybody fade a Bob Dylan classic?



May God bless and keep you always
May your wishes all come true
May you always do for others
And let others do for you

May you build a ladder to the stars
And climb on every rung

And may you stay
Forever young

Forever young
Forever young
May you stay
Forever young

May you grow up to be righteous
May you grow up to be true
May you always know the truth
And see the lights surrounding you

May you always be courageous
Stand upright and be strong

And may you stay
Forever young

Forever young
Forever young
May you stay
Forever young

May your hands always be busy
May your feet always be swift
May you have a strong foundation
When the winds of changes shift

May your heart always be joyful
May your song always be sung
And may you stay
Forever young








Lyrics pretty much say it all.
Stay forever young.

[JBEX]

I wasn't even aware bob dylan did it also ..always thought it was rod stewart only ..will definitely give it a listen

[JBEX]

I wasn't even aware bob dylan did it also ..always thought it was rod stewart only ..will definitely give it a listen

obviously a bob dylan song

[JBEX]

I'm looking at 3 horses but will narrow to a minimum of 2 by thursday..as mentioned in my thread going to try and beat fierceness


1 dornoch (20-1)
7 honor marie (20-1)
11 forever young (10-1)

one way to use all 3 especially with 2 low priced favorites (5-2/3-1 is low in a 20 horse field)

123 ..my three
45 .. 2 favorites

1 tri box 123 $6

probably (being kind lol) not but have for $1



123/45/123 .. $12
123/123/45 .. $12

saying you have to beat the favorite but if 2 of the 3 come in the money along with 1 of the favorites you have the triple

1/4 (6/24) ratio about right factoring what payoffs would be

[JBEX]

one way to use all 3 especially with 2 low priced favorites (5-2/3-1 is low in a 20 horse field)

123 ..my three
45 .. 2 favorites

1 tri box 123 $6

probably (being kind lol) not but have for $1



123/45/123 .. $12
123/123/45 .. $12

saying you have to beat the favorite but if 2 of the 3 come in the money along with 1 of the favorites you have the triple

1/4 (6/24) ratio about right factoring what payoffs would be

of course with above you'd be wise to add $1 ex box 123 also

[JBEX]

I think it's a good strategy if you're trying to beat the favorites with whatever 3 horses you like

[Pigpen]

Hey gang!!!! I like Thorpedo Anna in the Oaks and I am going to single her with about 4 in the Oaks/Derby Double. I am not going to play Sierra Leone with his closing style. He may beat me but I think the traffic will give him too much to do in this race. Will post my plays later in the week. Having a Derby party at my house Saturday. Good luck everyone!!!!!

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey gang!!!! I like Thorpedo Anna in the Oaks and I am going to single her with about 4 in the Oaks/Derby Double. I am not going to play Sierra Leone with his closing style. He may beat me but I think the traffic will give him too much to do in this race. Will post my plays later in the week. Having a Derby party at my house Saturday. Good luck everyone!!!!!

OK Pigpen good deal. Will check out Thorpedo Anna in the Oaks. GL. Have a great Sat.

[stevenash]

*Off Topic*

Somebody said last month to keep an eye on Barksdale as that pony runs like he's on jet fuel.
I watched this race last week, Barksdale obliterated this field, 1:15, missing a course record by a fraction.
One of the most impressive runs I've seen in a month.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Trainer Brad Cox told Churchill Downs' publicity team on Tuesday that his Grade 3 Lexington Stakes winner Encino will not run in the Kentucky Derby.

The defection allows the first also-eligible, Epic Ride, to draw into the field. The 3-year-old son of Blame is trained by Kentucky Derby first-timer John Ennis, the former exercise rider of Hall of Fame racehorse Wise Dan.

[Easy-Rider 66]

The last 9 consecutive Kentucky Derby winners have posted a final workout of 5 furlongs or longer the week before the race. You have to go back to 2014 (California Chrome) to find a winner that worked a shorter distance. This year, there are 9 entrants with a 4 furlong or shorter final workout, including the favorite, Fierceness, who posted a 4F workout on April 26 at Churchill Downs in 48.80.

[JBEX]

really don't get why #3 where's my ring (15-1) ml is so high in the oaks ..part of it is probably a middle of the road socal trainer and not a premier "national" level jock aboard ..jose lezcano just a cut below the best in the game imo

[Easy-Rider 66]

really don't get why #3 where's my ring (15-1) ml is so high in the oaks ..part of it is probably a middle of the road socal trainer and not a premier "national" level jock aboard ..jose lezcano just a cut below the best in the game imo

Yeah Agree with your take JBEX. Based on the BRIS highest last out speed rating and solid pace figures as well. Not sure if Battaglia still the ML maker but maybe whoever it is is using DRF and they have a lower last out figure.

[JBEX]

Yeah Agree with your take JBEX. Based on the BRIS highest last out speed rating and solid pace figures as well. Not sure if Battaglia still the ML maker but maybe whoever it is is using DRF and they have a lower last out figure.

that's more than likely what it is

[JBEX]

that race (gazelle) ran in the same time as the wood memorial 2 races later..has to be an indicator it was a good time ..generally speaking 1:50 + is solid for 9f @ aqueduct

[Jellymancan]

really don't get why #3 where's my ring (15-1) ml is so high in the oaks ..part of it is probably a middle of the road socal trainer and not a premier "national" level jock aboard ..jose lezcano just a cut below the best in the game imo

Agree. Was probably my pick but I see down to 8-1 now. We’ll see.

[JBEX]

Agree. Was probably my pick but I see down to 8-1 now. We’ll see.

I wasn't even aware betting was open..looked at how much in the win pool and I would say with a high degree of certainty it's less than 1% of what will be bet..still,it's an early indicator of what the public is thinking but have a hunch she'll end up between 10-12


.

[Jellymancan]

I wasn't even aware betting was open..looked at how much in the win pool and I would say with a high degree of certainty it's less than 1% of what will be bet..still,it's an early indicator of what the public is thinking but have a hunch she'll end up between 10-12



.

Oh yeah, it’s super early. Derby day brings big money and I’d say 10-14 would be my guess.

[Easy-Rider 66]

[Easy-Rider 66]

the above is updated Time form pace projector with the #21 drawing in.