I wanted to make a forum thread no just for “best bets” or “opinions on tracks”. I wanted to make this like a tutor/coach forum. I hope it can gain traction and offer some knowledge to help the casual bettor out.
-
-
Ok, background info….
I’ve been playing the ponies for almost 28 years and I suck.
I tried research, I’ve tried tip sheets, hell I’ve even paid people for picks and I still can’t turn a profit.
I’ve tried to quit many times but I’ve grown up on the sport and been betting since I was 15.
So my next effort is to get better, so at least I won’t lose so much as quickly.
Looking forward to the conversations.Comment -
You a weekend warrior or daily player? Gimmicks can make a good capper bad. Happy to see fresh a fresh face in horses. Welcome, will be happy to assist in your quest to limit losses, the name of the game. Do you have a favorite track, distance or surface you prefer? Passion, action and winning the perfect day, 4me.Last edited by BOA12; 08-15-21, 02:54 PM.Comment -
couple thoughts. #1 Start Laying. Laying is my most profitable wager over the last few years. Also on Win bets use an exchange esp if you play chaks as they are much better priced. #2 When playing the USA tote and gimicks chase carryovers and play 15% take out pick 4 and 5's. You most likely will lose long run so might as well play exotics that if you hit will make your month....Comment -
Makes little or no sense not to have Sunday racing. PM me if you go again, meet you at the finish line. And yes, an expensive entry fee. Not a fan of poly, why I don't play AP anymore, though always love live racing. Hit Hawthorne last year for the first time in along time.Comment -
Daily if my bankroll allows.
I’ll play any track and distance but not a fan of Quarter horses. Too fast and too much wrong can hinder the race.
My go to(not necessarily winning) bet is Trifecta:
1st: Favorite
2nd: 2,3,4 pick
3rd: All
I mean sometimes it comes in but unless a bomb comes in 3rd I’m not getting paid well.Last edited by BT RayRay; 08-17-21, 11:02 AM.Comment -
not to be a critic but betting Tri's like that is a losing proposition. For me I like trying to outsmart the ML. Remember the ML is what the guy thinks the IDIOT betting public will make not who he likes or thinks will win. I like multi race bets like pick 4 and 5's because I can try to find the vulnerable 8/5 ML that people key on toss them. I'd say 75% of people who play pick 4 and pick 5's use the ML as a guage for picks and that is the biggest mistake ever. You need to find more price shots then your tri ticket as betting a A/AB/ABC ticket is wasteComment -
Hey Ray: I would recommend PP's that institutes Pace figures.Comment -
this is a bad strategy..you're doing what everybody else is..I think the best strategy is keying longshots in 3rd and 4th..where they are most likely to finish
A 8-5
B 7-2
C 4-1
D 6-1
X 15-1
for triples
A/BCD/X (2-3x)
BCD/A/X (1x)
there is value when you get the 6th or higher odds horse in 3rd cause too many people box the top 3 or4..I have found over a long period of time that these pay more than they should ..I believe it overcomes the vig..focus on longshots to come in 3rd or 4th
.Comment -
tomorrow I'll do what the odds payoff should be in a triple at saratoga where the 3rd place horse is 15-1 or higher.. 4 lowest odds have to comprise top two spots..may not happen and won't necessarily be an overlay but they often areComment -
Just combine Harthebar BkofAma and JBEX picks into a pic 3/4/5 that's my tip...thats a allstar ticketComment -
Been busy last few days, do want to respond and would be happy to Handicap a card one day and show you my method; beware, no guarantees other than action and passion. Not a fan of Quarter horses, love tri's, though trying 2go back to basics, picking winners. Consider myself a speed handicapper, though combine many different methods and angles to split horses. My father taught me how to read the form, taught by the best. Many fine cappers much wiser and smarter than I, so this is a fine thread even 4me. BOL til we meet again BT. I like BT, was my late bookies name. 99% of 'em named Tony, great guys.Comment -
OK so I’m is subject to pick threes and pick fours, if the each race only has 5 to 6 horses each is it really worth it? Or would it be better just to load up on a couple different combinations and hope it hits?Comment -
Pick 3's need some value, meaning chalk/chalk/All $6. Used to go overboard on P3 (don't play P4 much) combos hit a lot P3 that I lost money. Bottom line, try to pick the winner and surround it with contenders. Had the greatest horse racing book ever circa 1960 called "Smart Handicapping Made Easy"
Richard Baumon the author I believe. Lent to a buddy is history, otherwise I send it to you. That being said, Picking Winners and all contenders the goal. Today I have Saratoga R3 DD 45/2 $2. P3 145/12/2 $6. Bet my picks all WP in my thread. I'll be around til 2:00 CST if you have any questions or comments. BOL glad to have another horse racing brother.Comment -
saratoga R3 a good example
R9 was close to trying this strategy but this was the 1st one I did the math on
* 7.50 (27% pool)
winner
73% remaining
* 8-5 .. (38% pool)
2nd
73/38 =1.9 ×7.50 $14.25 exacta
* 20-1 .. 5%
3rd
27% 38% 100 -65 =35% remaining
35/5 =7 × 14.25 =99.75
$2 tri should pay $99.75
actually paid $128
not bad in an 8 horse field with 2 clear favorites..bigger fields usually leads to bigger overlay payoffs
3rd choice was 9-2 so probably an A/BC/X and BC/A/X triple would've made sense.. $8 investment ..4 combosLast edited by JBEX; 08-18-21, 08:06 PM.Comment -
and not to be lost in this is if you liked the 20-1 to run well going into the race this is the much more likely scenario than win or 2nd..with a .50 base triple you could also have a few combos with him in 2nd or if you really like him that much weigh it even heavier for 2nd..feel if he wins you lose as you don't want any hedge money on a $40 winner..just keeping in mind how many more bets you cashed over the long haul takes the sting out of it imoComment -
Adding one other side note to what JBEX has said, which I feel is extremely on point, I don't know if the form, or the program shows the jockey standings for 1sts, 2nds, and 3rds but I used to be able to find it whenever I wanted to.
So with that said, find where you can see it at the track you are playing. Look for the rider somewhere down the standings that is NOT a big name rider, that has a bunch more 3rds than wins. Something like, 6-7 wins, 7-8 seconds and 15-20 thirds. Every rider colony at every track has one almost every meet. That rider is hungry, trying his or her butt off to get a piece for the owners and riding all the way to the wire every time.
While the leading riders are winning a lot, when they lose, often times they are wrapping up late to preserve the horse for next time, or, they have lost interest late in the race knowing they can't win. But that hungry rider is doing everything they can do to get 3rd in hopes of satisfying the owner and the trainer and getting that mount back and maybe a couple more from that trainer.
This rider is typically on longer priced horses, and scratching for mounts. Also see if that rider is sitting in the room for 3-4 races to ride a 20-1 in the last race. You can bet that rider is going to get every ounce out of that horse.
In triples, they get overlooked a lot, especially the last race as bettors that are down are gravitating towards the favorites. I promise you this works. Totally worth the extra dollar on your ticket in the 3rd spot. And this angle is rarely talked about. Everybody is chasing the leading riders that are over bet while you chase the guy that has a bunch of 3rds and you know will try like hell to get everything they can out of that 20-1 shot to be 3rd.
This can produce a payout that is more than the 10X the exacta payoff. All I can say is I never hear people talk about it, but I have watched this go on for a very long time.
Hope this helps someone. But I really don't need to hope, as I know it will.Comment -
excellent addition str..like you said these are the types of jockeys who wind up on a lot of 20-1 + horses so goes together well..so if you see some signs of life ,so to speak,having this type of jockey on board is a plus
here are the saratoga jockey standings..would say dylan davis and eric cancel fit the part pretty well..castellano losing a lot of luster overall (not just here) but he's still too big of a name imo..cancel and davis I believe excel at aqueduct when all the biggies go to florida but maybe this time of year they appreciate getting their itm finishes
Comment -
think david cohen wouldn't be a bad addition eitherComment -
WOW. You guys and/or girls being a lot to digest. I appreciate it. Thank youComment -
Don't let it overwhelm you.
See the logic mathematically with what JBEX wrote. It makes sense and shows the value of doing something like that.
As for what I explained, keep it as simple as you like. Just use those 3 riders on longshots in the 3rd position for triples.
If you don't play Saratoga, wherever you play I am sure you will find over achievers that are struggling for mounts that have many more 3rds than wins and don't get many favorites. If so, use those type of riders in the 3rd spot for triples at your track of choice.
Even if its the favorite on top of the 2nd and 3rd choices. Just be sure and use those types of riders on longshots in the 3rd spot.
So play : Favorite/ 2nd choice and 3rd choice( or whoever you want, I'm not recommending a favorite or 2nd and 3rd choice), and then use the 3rd running riders at big prices.
That type of 1.00 ticket is 4.00 with two longshots in the third spot. Beats the heck out of putting much more in for a lesser return IMO.
Good Luck BT !
Follow up if you have any questions.Comment -
Man some good stuff here! Eric Cancel outside of the winter NYRA meets is a good longshot jock....speaking of overbet jockeys i was thinking Russell Baze has to be #1 all time in NoCal tracksComment -
OK I got a new question/topic:
The 3rd race at Saratoga had a 1/9 shot, I didn’t know how to bet it or if I should bet it at all?
The only theory I ever had was it would be a good single in a pick three or pick four but it does take away some of the value.
What do you think?
Also why do people bet to win on a 1/9 shot?Comment -
playing in p3's or 4's basically like playing 1 leg less..personally I'm turned off by playing them in horizontals..if you see a flaw and you play these bets for multiple times the base bet (50 cents p3 for $ 2-3) play it with an upsetter for the base bet..maybe you get lucky and likely the ticket will be a big overlay
don't get why people would bet to win..I have read in the distant past before simulcasting that 2/5 and lower actually showed a 2-3% roi over a huge sample set..I understand the theory on why that was so (don't think it's true anymore) but it's not worth getting into.Comment -
Last question first. I have no idea what would prompt someone to bet a price like that.
Only way to deal with a race like that is if you think the horse can lose, then bet against.
Or, if there is a show pool, you can play all the others if the itch to bet is great, assuming 4 or 5 horses and know you lose roughly 5.80 or win maybe 150.00+/- but you have to check the show pool and see if the money is there as well.
But for the most part, that race is an auto throw out. I get it though if you just want the action. Just don't bet much at all in a race like that. And there is rarely any value to singling that horse in pick whatever's.
That's my opinion.Comment
