Arlington's Pucker Up

**RJS** · 09-08-07, 10:02 AM

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Luna Dorada Melancon L O'Callaghan Niall M 116 L 30-1

5 races as a 2yo. It’s first 2 as a 2yo were nothing special then moved to Poly in it’s third race and she jumped up nicely. Bounced off that race 5 weeks later and then came back again nicely 5 weeks after bouncing pairing up her previous top. Came out in first race as a 3yo establishing a new top and then bounced. Switched over to turf 9 weeks later and ran another new top. Bounced back ever so slightly and now almost 3 months later is poised and ready for a nice race. Should have a ground saving trip on the rail and comes in carrying 116. If she jumps forward again, saves ground with the light weight has a chance at 30-1. Melancon/O'Callaghan 10% win clip.

2 2 Testama (FR) Nakatani C S De Roualle Jean 118 FTL 6-1

6 races a 2yo. All consistent races. In her first 6 as a 3yo she is still very consistent and is one of the faster ones in this race. A decent amount of rain in Chicago the last few days makes the softer turf more to her liking. Trainer and change and first time lasix. Definite contender at 6-1. Nakatani up.

3 3 West Coast Swing Leparoux J R Ritter Shannon 116 L 10-1

Did not race as a 2yo and currently only has 2 races under her belt both on poly and both monster races. Fastest horse in this race. Light weight, nice post. It’s last race was a monster and she might react negatively to that. But with her speed even a bounce she’s a contender and at 10-1. She is facing horses with more experience and I usually prefer consistency and experience. Her fast numbers however make this in my opinion the horse to beat. 10-1 I doubt at post. Very much live. Chicago bettors are very smart so I’ll be watching tote to see what she really does go off at.

4 4 Our Dancing Babe Campbell J M Smithwick, Jr. D. M 118 L 30-1

Very, very interesting horse. 5 races as 2yo and showed xoxox pattern. Came out as 3yo and the 4 on poly were very, very consistent xox pattern gone. 4 months later went to turf for the first time and ran a very nice race. Now 5 weeks later is in a spot where trainer hits 26% 2nd race after layoff. Should be fresh and even a pairing of last race puts her in this and at 30-1.

5 5 Ciao Emigh C A Kirby Frank J 118 L 20-1

Something sneaky imo here. Ran 3 fair races as 2yo, all on turf. Came out and ran only 3 races as a 3yo with it’s second of the 3 a fair number. Last race ran 4w4w with no urging, no response and dropped back. Possibly tanked that race. Now 7 weeks later is set up here. Has shown nothing to show it is fast enough to win but she is not that far off and throwing out that last race has been brought along slowly but consistent. Will watch the board at the start of this race. Connections known to bet large long before the race.

6 6 Lemonlime Razo E Jr Granitz Anthony J 118 L 20-1

Not that much that I like here. Did not race as a 2yo. Now in it’s 8th race as a 3yo it has improved every single time. That’s great but it has improved so much and has raced so often I do not see another jump forward possible. It is coming off 7 weeks rest but ran 4 races in 10 weeks this summer. Some think this horse might jump forward. I am not one of those.

7 7 Bel Air Beauty Guidry M Brothers Frank L 118 L 20-1

I like this horse. 3 races as a 2yo with nice numbers. Came out in June with its first race as a 3yo and did nothing special. 7 weeks later went to turf and matched his 2yo top. Lots of room for improvement here. It doesn’t take much effort for a to get back to its 2yo top so this one is ready to jump forward and at 20-1. A stalker with Guidry up. Him and Brothers connect at 14% win clip 48% ITM. Brothers wins 22% of Stakes races. Lightly raced, decent weight, the right jock I believe and poised to jump forward. Watch the tote.

8 8 You Go West Girl Theriot H J II Proctor Thomas F 116 L 6-1

This horse wouldn’t surprise me. 5 races as a 3yo all the same speed. Ran 1st race on slop, 2nd poly next 2 on turf and then back to poly but bore out. Lastrace 11-29 days category trainer hits 24% clip. 16 % win clip with this jockey. Just as fast as everyone but West Coast. Also carries only 116 but post negates that some. Definitely has a shot but 6-1.

9 9 Touch My Soul (FR) Douglas R R Schiergen Peter 118 9-2

2 races as a 2yo (both ok) and 3 as a 3yo. Only 1 of those 5 races was fast enough to put her in contention here. But she has run fast enough to contend and also is lightly raced. Trainer change but a bit outside which could cause ground loss. Might use but not on top.

10 10 Dreaming of Anna Baird E T Catalano Wayne M 122 L 5-2

4 races as a 2yo and had an awesome pattern. Nice number first time out. 2 months later in July switched to turf and ran very good race who’s speed of that race would put him in this. There were questions as to whether he was held back in that race. In his 3rd race as a 2yo he ran another quality turf race jumped forward slightly, this time in a route. In her 4th race in November she ran a monster number that if she duplicates today she runs away with this. Came out as a 3yo in February and ran 2 so-so races, one dirt one turf route. Went backwards slightly in May but over a muddy track. Came back with an ok turf race and then back with a nicer turf race in July. That same number in July duplicated should be good enough here. Now running on 7 weeks rest as a 3yo and she has not yet reached her 2yo top. But that top was on dirt. Not much speed inside of her that would prevent her from getting the rail and another 1w1w trip. Trainer Catalano is 30% win clip in the 30-89 day category. 38% win clip with Baird the mount. 66% ITM. High weight an issue but lots of pluses. Could (maybe should) win but so could others at better odds.

11 11 Ric Rac Perez E E Williamson Brian 116 L 50-1

Can’t see this one so I won’t waste my time.

12 12 Katerbug Graham J Arnold George R II 118 L 20-1

Currently a little slow but lightly raced and could move forward. Like the fact that she has been 1w1w last 2 despite bad posts. Others inside her that are faster and better odds. I think by post she’ll be real long which could give her value as an underlay.

13 13 Pitamakan Albarado R J Mott William I 118 L 6-1

Lots of positives here. Mott,, only 5th race of career. Came out with 1 race last August as a 2yo and showed nothing. Took 10 months off and ran a turf route, and a very decent number and jump. Improved her second time out as a 3yo with a number slightly forward that puts her within range of this. Month later on poly duplicated that effort. Last race 11-29 days Mott is 21%. With this jock 23%. At AP 29%. Both the previous mention 53% ITM. Has speed but most likely will be outside Dreaming of Anna 2w. Weight she is getting 4 from Dreaming of Anna. This horse could move forward nicely here and is one of many that could win.

Rushed Analysis – Lots that can win here. If Dreaming of Anna returns moves forward, with the trip might just win. West Coast Swing extremely fast might burn this field but inexperienced and turf first time. Horses that do well on poly usually also do well on turf but what will truf conditions be today. Looks like a nice day here but has rained the last few. Not betting this I’ll be on the golf course but below a quick attempt at finish. Would advise watching odds boards and sometimes the Arlington board will give something away.

3 3 West Coast Swing Leparoux J R Ritter Shannon 116 L 10-1 ( 2 huge ?)
10 10 Dreaming of Anna Baird E T Catalano Wayne M 122 L 5-2 (4-5)
4 4 Our Dancing Babe Campbell J M Smithwick, Jr. D. M 118 L 30-1 (5.5)
7 7 Bel Air Beauty Guidry M Brothers Frank L 118 L 20-1 (5-6)
13 13 Pitamakan Albarado R J Mott William I 118 L 6-1 (5-6)
8 8 You Go West Girl Theriot H J II Proctor Thomas F 116 L 6-1 (6)
5 5 Ciao Emigh C A Kirby Frank J 118 L 20-1 (6.5)
2 2 Testama (FR) Nakatani C S De Roualle Jean 118 FTL 6-1 (6.5 maybe bounce)
1 1 Luna Dorada Melancon L O'Callaghan Niall M 116 L 30-1 (7.5)
9 9 Touch My Soul (FR) Douglas R R Schiergen Peter 118 9-2 (7.5)
12 12 Katerbug Graham J Arnold George R II 118 L 20-1 (7.5)
6 6 Lemonlime Razo E Jr Granitz Anthony J 118 L 20-1 (8.5)
11 11 Ric Rac Perez E E Williamson Brian 116 L 50-1 (8)