Kent Breeders' Cup

**Seattle Slew** · 09-01-07, 12:39 AM

Nobizlikeshowbiz figures to be even money or less off nice Saratoga win in first try on turf. I'm passing on this one.

**RJS** · 09-01-07, 09:13 AM

"Nobizlikeshowbiz figures to be even money or less off nice Saratoga win in first try on turf"

Thats who I will be trying to beat. Looks like 3 horses have a chance. Like the 3 and 5 best.

3 3 Summer Doldrums Gomez G K Violette, Jr. R A 120 LA 12-1
5 5 Strike a Deal Dominguez R A Goldberg Alan E 116 L 5-1
6 6 Soldier's Dancer Pino M G Vivian David A 118 L 15-1

**RJS** · 09-01-07, 11:49 AM

1 1 Buddy's Humor Coa E M Levine Bruce N 118 LA 6-1

This will be his eighth race as a 3yo. Very evenly spaced races all about a month apart and all very consistent. Problem is consistently slower that what will be needed to win this race. Gets little weight and benefits from the rail but I can’t see him winning. If lucky might get a check but can’t even bank on that at these odds.

2 2 Encaustic Garcia Luis Small Richard W 116 L 15-1

This horse ran its’ fastest race 11 races back as a 2yo and that was on dirt. Consistently slow and slower than the 1. I pass.

3 3 Summer Doldrums Gomez G K Violette, Jr. R A 120 LA 12-1

Four races as a 2yo with its’ third race in that campaign a very nice effort. Came out as a 3yo and improved on the dirt running 3 nice races then slightly bouncing. Came out on turf and ran 3 fairly nice races. About 10 lengths faster than the 2 above. 6 weeks rest and ready to make another forward move at 12-1. Only thing not to like is the weight.

4 4 Wheels Up At Noon Merryman Ann W 116 LA 12-1

Same type of speed as the 1 and 2. Will be its’ fifth race in about 2 months and possibly could bounce. I don’t see this horse competitive here on short rest and not fast enough as it is. At 116 a slight weight advantage.

5 5 Strike a Deal Dominguez R A Goldberg Alan E 116 L 5-1

Four races as a 2yo with 3 of those on turf. Took 5 months off and came out as a 3yo with 3 very nice turf races. With the weight advantage, he’s just as fast as the 3 gives him a slight edge but that edge evens out with the possibility of the 3 getting a ground saving trip with Gomez up. Dominguez if he plays it right should get this horse up. 6 weeks rest and only 4th race as a 3yo. Note: Dominguez/Goldberg hook up at 36% win clip 65% ITM.

6 6 Soldier's Dancer Pino M G Vivian David A 118 L 15-1

Heavily raced as a 2yo with 8 races 2 on turf. The 15-1 odds stick out but this horse is just about 3-4 lengths slower than the 3 and 5 and further out. Has 6 weeks rest and could possibly jump slightly forward here which if others bounce or fall down makes him a possibility.

7 7 Twilight Meteor Decarlo C P Pletcher Todd A 116 L 6-1

Cannot throw out this horse either. Ran 4 races as a 2yo improving in each. The real improvement was in its’ 4th race when it went to poly. Took 4 moths off and came back out on turf and ran ok. Bounced the next on poly then came back on turf ok. Bounced again on poly and then came back on turf ok. Now it’s running again on turf and could jump forward plus its’ getting weight. Decarlo/Pletcher hit 24% and it’s not impossible for Decarlo to manage a nice trip. Wish it were better odds but we’ll watch the board.

8 8 Nobiz Like Shobiz Castellano J J Tagg Barclay 120 LA 8-5

Extremely fast horse as a 2yo. 3 races all very fast but all 3 on dirt. Came out as a 3yo and ran 4 very similar races on dirt and then a monster in July at Belmont. Went to turf and bounced off that monster Belmont effort. It won but that number it ran is slower than other horses here have run on the turf. Castellano/Tagg win 25% clip. High weight, 8PP. favorite, I have to go against. Nobiz Like Shobiz is a great horse but has only 1 race on turf and that race was just ok.

9 9 Starvinsky Rose J Jackson Bruce C 118 LA 12-1

Slower than ½ the horses in this race. Concedes weight to faster horses. While he may jump forward 12-1 doesn’t seem like value from this spot, with this weight and this speed. Will watch the board. Has been vet scratched 3 times. Jockey trainer are 2 for 2.

10 10 Chaluiwitcane Alvarado R Jr Vargas Nerio 116 LA 12-1

Too many others I like that are faster. This will be 9th race as a 3yo. While it has been improving each time its still a good distance back from the others

11 11 Return the Money Fogelsonger R Tullock Timothy Jr 116 LA 20-1

Has improved a lot this year just to get to this point. Even an improvement makes him tough to like. Like odds, like weight just hard to like his speed. A couple points jump up makes him an underlay and cannot throw out completely. Just others I like more.

Have to bet around the fav. Great horse, won his only race on turf but that wasn’t that great a number. Might not like this turf. Other horses have run faster numbers on the turf (3 and 5) and the 6 is not far off. Can’t throw out the 1,7,or 9. If I have to pick one, I’ll take the 5 seems like the most talented.

**RJS** · 09-01-07, 01:57 PM

Race 7 like Lemon Drop Mom 8-1

**OrionSky** · 09-01-07, 02:40 PM

I'm with you RJS -

Strike a Deal
Summer Doldrums
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Soldier's Dancer

**OrionSky** · 09-01-07, 02:57 PM

Nice RJS - Lemon Drop Mom to win

**Seattle Slew** · 09-01-07, 11:49 PM

8 Nobiz Like Shobiz 4.20 3.20 2.10
7 Twilight Meteor 9.60 4.60
5 Strike a Deal 2.40

Nobiz wins by a nose. This horse is talented but never blows the field away like he should. Tough to take as the chalk but he always runs hard.