Betting the next to longest odds horse blindly

[curious]

Hello,
I know nothing about horse racing in terms of handicapping. I don't know who the jockeys are or the trainers or the owners.

I do know how to find patterns in data.

I have been tracking the horses that finish in the win / place / show the past several weeks at Saratoga and Mountaineer. No particular reason why I picked those two tracks.

Here is a pattern I found.

If you bet the next to longest odds horse blindly in every race with X on the win, 2X on the place and 4X on the show, and if you put the next to longest odds horse in a perfecta and trifecta with the crowd favorites, the win / place / show, perfecta and trifecta hit often enough that this is a positive expectation bet.

Is there something about Saratoga or Mountaineer this time of year that would cause this? A few weeks of races is not enough data to predict anything.

I thought maybe this is working because the quality of the entrants at Saratoga is so high that any of them have a shot at winning.

Mountaineer is said to be a "fixed" track, and has always favored longshots. I don't know if there is any truth to that or not.

Anyway, I am thinking about putting some money into testing this live instead of just testing it on paper.

[kdmfox]

I'm not an advocate of blind betting on the horses but if you want to test a system like you describe, Saratoga would be a place to try it ... Certainly tossing the fave out there makes sense ... Lots of longshots there and plenty of them showing up in the top 3 ... Good luck

[kdmfox]

curious ... I quickly went over the last week of Saratoga ... There was 56 races and the 2nd priced longshot finished in the top 3 on 7 races, 1 win, 3 places and 3 shows for a total of 12 winning tickets out of 168 tickets bet (56x3)

The payoffs were 1 win for 22.00 ... 4 places for 17.60, 6.10, 10.40, 20.40 ... 7 shows for 8.50, 7.40, 5.50, 7.30, 4.20, 6.10, 11.00

You can figure what you bet on 156 tickets and cashes on 12 using your theory ... Right off the top of my head, 1 win in 56 races doesn't get it done.

[Seattle Slew]

A guy at OTB used to bet blindly at the big tracks. He was a loudmouth, so you always knew who he had. He always tossed the first two favorites and always bet a horse that was 5 to 8-1.

Sometimes he cashed, most of the time he made an ass of himself during the racecall. I saw him for about a year and then he disappeared forever.

I'm sure during losing streaks we've all played blindly at some track at the OTB. I've done it in frustration. Hit a few but mostly lost.

[thezbar]

As a general rule I feel betting horses in the blind is a losing prop.
However I do and have done blind betting in the past.Sometimes I play a horse based on the name. I've bet horses based solely on their appearance in the post parade.If I'm looking for a win bet I will play the fifth betting choice. MY favorite blind bet when I'm chasing is a cold exacta second choice to the favorite. These plays are few and far between.I've learned the hard way about that.

[imgv94]

Horrible way to play the horses..

Want to play something blind? Play a .10 cent superfecta or mess around with some Doubles or Pick 3s.

What you are doing is throwing away $$.

[curious]

I'm up for the week > $500. But it is a grind, and most of the payoffs come from trifectas. Easier ways to make money.

This isnt' totally blind betting, it is based on a pattern I saw in the results data. Of course, previous outcomes don't mean much in such a small data set.

[OrionSky]

Nice Curious, i enjoy the horses more than any other sport - well maybe not football, (Go Eagles).