How to play race .....

[Dark Horse]

I thought I'd open a thread where people can share how they would play certain situations. I read somewhere that a lot of good horse cappers end up losing money because they're not so good with value, so ...

Example. I capped a race for this Thursday. Ten horses, four or five contenders. I decided on #1 (8-1) and #7 (5-2). I think either one of these horses will win, and they may finish 1 and 2.

What's the best way to bet that? Obviously, #1 has more value; #7 is the favorite, at this time. Each to win, and an exacta box? Or something else? And what bet sizing?

[Jrod124]

[jw]

#1 (8-1) and #7 (5-2)

If it were me - taking this at face value - I would probably bet

1pt win horse #1 - 2pts win horse #7

assume 1 point = $10

If #1 wins - profit = $60
If #7 wins - profit = $40

I don't normally play exacta's but if I had to I would probably do it similar.

1pt exacta 1-7
2pts exacta 7-1

Of course this will vary based on how strongly you favor one horse over the other and how much play other horses are getting in the betting pool.

[DogPlayer]

WPS on both for $2 = $12

$2 quinella = $2

$2 Exacta box $4

Total bet $18

Also are you betting with a bookie with fixed odds for all bet types? Odds at the track will vary based on pool size so quinella odds will be different than exacta odds etc..

I find one of the biggest mistakes people make is not backing up their bets. Putting all $20 hoping for a win is a mistake in my opinion jw assuming you have a small bank roll.

My way will not turn a huge profit quickly but if your bankroll is small it will allow you to play another day.

I have seen guys turn $1000 bank roll into 2 million dollars in handle by playing smart... In an industry that pays rebates its stupid to play high risk style and not back up your bets.

[BarkingToad]

$10 win and $20 place on #1 the higher price horse. Whatever you put to win, put twice that amount to place. Don't mess with the 5/2 favorite.

[INVEGA MAN]

Buy the book "Exotic Betting" by Steven Christ. The book tells you how you should bet these exotics. Very interesting book

[Dark Horse]

Thanks for the input.

I bought a program that calculates this for me, based on different risk approaches and overlays (I believe the math is taken from Bernie Meadows book "money secrets at the race track"). The program even uses the speed figures I prefer. Only problem is that the data I use, which are to 1000th of a second for each horse in QH racing, are not available in a format that the program can use. So there I am with a pretty sophisticated program and having to rely on imprecise 'lengths behind' instead. Of course this messes up the odds and everything else.

Back to the drawing board. Or rather, peppering Equibase with requests for a different data format.

[robmpink]

I don't cap. I just buy the daily racing form and play pick 4's using who all 4 or 5 pickers like.