"Dry Martini to shake and stir up a win in Belmont’s Jockey Club Gold Cup"
by "Reload" Joe Freda
A competitive seven horse field will hit the track at Belmont Park today for the $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup. Back on July 4, Dry Martini won the Suburban Handicap at Belmont at 10-1 odds and will look for another upset today on the same dirt against Belmont and Travers Stakes winner Summer Bird.
With Breeders Cup weekend a month away, that means it is time for some big prep races and Jockey Club Gold Cup day at Belmont has a rich card lined up. The main event will pit Summer Bird (#3), one of 2009’s leading three year olds, facing perhaps his most competitive field yet in going against older horses for the first time in big stakes action. His last three races have not only included Belmont and Travers Stakes victories but a solid second place finish to Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell Invitational.
Although Summer Bird is clearly the one to beat today, I feel the low 2-1 morning line odds have to make me pass and find some better value. When you look at the loaded lineup of contenders in this field, it will answer a question of how good this year’s three year olds really were and how Summer Bird can stack up against older horses heading into the Breeders Cup. Summer Bird’s value at the betting windows has flown down the chart and it may even be a challenge to finish in the money today.
Dry Martini (#6) is my choice as the best value in today’s Jockey Club Gold Cup field at an 8-1 morning line and I am going with him to win with Edgar Prado aboard. This race is at the same 1 ¼ mile distance as the victory obtained in the Suburban Handicap and I am looking for him to be right at the finish line again today. Although Dry Martini is off a disappointing fifth place finish in the Whitney coming into this one, a nearly two month layoff is likely to help erase that memory and trainer Barclay Tagg must feel good about the chances here.
Should Dry Martini fail to close in for an upset, two other contenders at higher odds are also worth a few bucks in Tizway (#4) and Asiatic Boy (#5). Tizway at 15-1 is going way up in class here compared to what this colt has faced in the last couple of years but hit a career-high speed figure of 102 at Belmont in a one mile race back in July. Trainer Harold James Bond may get his own “shaken not stirred” upset here and could have a late blooming star heading into the Breeders Cup if a big showing happens today.
Asiatic Boy has faced some solid competition this year since coming over to the United States from Dubai and should get a better trip today than in the 4th place finish at the Woodward last month. No Rachel Alexandra to tower over this field today as there was that day and Asiatic Boy could be right there in the money at an 8-1 morning line today. Alan Garcia stays aboard who was in the saddle for a second place finish in the Suburban Handicap and the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs – it will just be a case to day of if a leap forward can happen to get past the victors Dry Martini and Macho Again this time.
Rounding out the field are a few choices I am avoiding today in Sette E Mezzo (#1), Macho Again (#2), and Quality Road (#7). Sette E Mezzo is paying nice odds but is taking too high of a jump here in class and loses Kent Desormeaux aboard who has been there for most races that the colt has been a part of this year. Macho Again was a split second away from upsetting Rachel Alexandra in the Travers and is a solid closer, but there might only be regression from here with as big of an effort as we saw that day – it is not worth taking a chance to find out at a lower 7-2 morning line today. Quality Road has not raced enough at long distances to warrant a low 5-2 morning line and may not even finish in the money here.
The Beldame: Older ladies going 1 1/8 miles
Four big stakes races lead up to the main event today and the first of which is the Beldame which features older fillies going 1 1/8 miles on dirt for a share of $600,000. I am avoiding the odds-on chalk Music Note(#2) at a 2-5 morning line here and feel a couple of others are worth a look in small field with only four betting interests.
Captain’s Lover (#1) and Unbridled Belle (#1A) make up an entry with both trained by Todd Pletcher and would be my tag-team choice here. Although a 2-1 morning line is still low, having two horses for the price of one in a five horse field will have its advantages. Unbridled Belle won the Beldame back in 2007 with Ramon Dominguez aboard and gets him back in the saddle today for the first time in a year hoping for some déjà vu.
The Vosburgh: Three year olds and up hit Belmont for some sprint action
A small five horse field will go six furlongs in the Vosburgh and it could be time for a cold exacta as even money morning line favorite, Fabulous Strike (#5) looks for an easy explosion here. Ramon Dominguez has won two of three starts this year aboard Fabulous Strike against big competition, including a six furlong win in June at Belmont, and lost by only a head in the other mount.
One choice at some better odds is Munnings (#3) at a morning line of 7-2 and I would look to hook him up with Fabulous Strike in an exacta here. Munnings is off a couple of third place finishes in a row but faced some of the best competition possible there – including Rachel Alexandra and Summer Bird in the Haskell Invitational. Prior to that, Munnings had two big wins in a row at Belmont and cuts back a furlong from those today which could make it even easier to finish in the top two.
The Flower Bowl Invitational: Wide open filly field takes to the inner turf
With a purse of $600,000 on the line, some talented turf ladies hit Belmont going 1 ¼ miles in the Flower Bowl Invitational. Although it could be anyone’s race in this stretch, I am going with British invader Moneycantbuymelove (#7) at 4-1 morning line odds to win this one.
Although Moneycantbuymelove will be making her first start on United States ground today, she has come in the money three times at this distance on turf in England and will get to carry only 115 pounds compared to higher weights overseas. The field today also has less than half of the participants as Moneycantbuymelove’s last victory and it should generally be an easier trip for jockey J.P. Spencer who is making the trip for this one today.
The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational: Gio Ponti returns to Belmont
Gio Ponti (#1) leads a favored entry today with Winchester (#1A) for trainer Chris Clement and will be a very tough team to beat in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at a 1 ½ mile distance. Although only paying a 6-5 morning line, Ramon Dominguez stays aboard Gio Ponti today where he was victorious at Belmont going a 1 3/8 mile distance in the Man O’War back in July. Gio Ponti has won 4 out of 5 races on the Belmont turf in his career with the only second place finish being by less than a length.
Should the Clement entry not come through, I will have a few bucks on Presious Passion (#7). I took Presious Passion the last two times out and still think back to his blazing victory at Monmouth back on July 4 at the United Nations Handicap – it is a race to watch if you still have not seen it. But last time it was the Arlington Million in Chicago where a weak clunker happened and I would say it’s do or die today. At the very least, some value in the odds happens here at a 6-1 morning line thanks to being off a disappointing effort.
More big money action around the country today
Although the Jockey Club Gold Cup card is huge in purses, some other rich big Breeders Cup prep races happen today around the country as well. Philadelphia Park hosts the Fitz Dixon Cotillon Stakes with a $750,000 purse featuring one of the best fillies this year in Careless Jewel. The Hawthorne Gold Cup and Indiana Derby have purses of $500,000 each and will also be worth checking out.
Next weekend: Oak Tree and Keeneland take the spotlight
Oak Tree is where the Breeders Cup will be next month, but before that a big prep race card is featured there next weekend as some contenders get ready for the synthetic surface there. The turf will also have action as the Yellow Ribbon Stakes will have the ladies going 1 ¼ miles for $400,000.
Keeneland will have big action on both Saturday and Sunday next weekend including the $600,000 Shadwell Turf Mile. A couple of $500,000 races will also occur with the Dixiana Breeders Futurity and the Juddmonte Spinster Stakes.
I will be back next Saturday and Sunday with a further look at these cards as action keeps heating up in the fall’s horse racing world. Good luck at the betting windows until then.
by "Reload" Joe Freda
A competitive seven horse field will hit the track at Belmont Park today for the $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup. Back on July 4, Dry Martini won the Suburban Handicap at Belmont at 10-1 odds and will look for another upset today on the same dirt against Belmont and Travers Stakes winner Summer Bird.
With Breeders Cup weekend a month away, that means it is time for some big prep races and Jockey Club Gold Cup day at Belmont has a rich card lined up. The main event will pit Summer Bird (#3), one of 2009’s leading three year olds, facing perhaps his most competitive field yet in going against older horses for the first time in big stakes action. His last three races have not only included Belmont and Travers Stakes victories but a solid second place finish to Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell Invitational.
Although Summer Bird is clearly the one to beat today, I feel the low 2-1 morning line odds have to make me pass and find some better value. When you look at the loaded lineup of contenders in this field, it will answer a question of how good this year’s three year olds really were and how Summer Bird can stack up against older horses heading into the Breeders Cup. Summer Bird’s value at the betting windows has flown down the chart and it may even be a challenge to finish in the money today.
Dry Martini (#6) is my choice as the best value in today’s Jockey Club Gold Cup field at an 8-1 morning line and I am going with him to win with Edgar Prado aboard. This race is at the same 1 ¼ mile distance as the victory obtained in the Suburban Handicap and I am looking for him to be right at the finish line again today. Although Dry Martini is off a disappointing fifth place finish in the Whitney coming into this one, a nearly two month layoff is likely to help erase that memory and trainer Barclay Tagg must feel good about the chances here.
Should Dry Martini fail to close in for an upset, two other contenders at higher odds are also worth a few bucks in Tizway (#4) and Asiatic Boy (#5). Tizway at 15-1 is going way up in class here compared to what this colt has faced in the last couple of years but hit a career-high speed figure of 102 at Belmont in a one mile race back in July. Trainer Harold James Bond may get his own “shaken not stirred” upset here and could have a late blooming star heading into the Breeders Cup if a big showing happens today.
Asiatic Boy has faced some solid competition this year since coming over to the United States from Dubai and should get a better trip today than in the 4th place finish at the Woodward last month. No Rachel Alexandra to tower over this field today as there was that day and Asiatic Boy could be right there in the money at an 8-1 morning line today. Alan Garcia stays aboard who was in the saddle for a second place finish in the Suburban Handicap and the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs – it will just be a case to day of if a leap forward can happen to get past the victors Dry Martini and Macho Again this time.
Rounding out the field are a few choices I am avoiding today in Sette E Mezzo (#1), Macho Again (#2), and Quality Road (#7). Sette E Mezzo is paying nice odds but is taking too high of a jump here in class and loses Kent Desormeaux aboard who has been there for most races that the colt has been a part of this year. Macho Again was a split second away from upsetting Rachel Alexandra in the Travers and is a solid closer, but there might only be regression from here with as big of an effort as we saw that day – it is not worth taking a chance to find out at a lower 7-2 morning line today. Quality Road has not raced enough at long distances to warrant a low 5-2 morning line and may not even finish in the money here.
The Beldame: Older ladies going 1 1/8 miles
Four big stakes races lead up to the main event today and the first of which is the Beldame which features older fillies going 1 1/8 miles on dirt for a share of $600,000. I am avoiding the odds-on chalk Music Note(#2) at a 2-5 morning line here and feel a couple of others are worth a look in small field with only four betting interests.
Captain’s Lover (#1) and Unbridled Belle (#1A) make up an entry with both trained by Todd Pletcher and would be my tag-team choice here. Although a 2-1 morning line is still low, having two horses for the price of one in a five horse field will have its advantages. Unbridled Belle won the Beldame back in 2007 with Ramon Dominguez aboard and gets him back in the saddle today for the first time in a year hoping for some déjà vu.
The Vosburgh: Three year olds and up hit Belmont for some sprint action
A small five horse field will go six furlongs in the Vosburgh and it could be time for a cold exacta as even money morning line favorite, Fabulous Strike (#5) looks for an easy explosion here. Ramon Dominguez has won two of three starts this year aboard Fabulous Strike against big competition, including a six furlong win in June at Belmont, and lost by only a head in the other mount.
One choice at some better odds is Munnings (#3) at a morning line of 7-2 and I would look to hook him up with Fabulous Strike in an exacta here. Munnings is off a couple of third place finishes in a row but faced some of the best competition possible there – including Rachel Alexandra and Summer Bird in the Haskell Invitational. Prior to that, Munnings had two big wins in a row at Belmont and cuts back a furlong from those today which could make it even easier to finish in the top two.
The Flower Bowl Invitational: Wide open filly field takes to the inner turf
With a purse of $600,000 on the line, some talented turf ladies hit Belmont going 1 ¼ miles in the Flower Bowl Invitational. Although it could be anyone’s race in this stretch, I am going with British invader Moneycantbuymelove (#7) at 4-1 morning line odds to win this one.
Although Moneycantbuymelove will be making her first start on United States ground today, she has come in the money three times at this distance on turf in England and will get to carry only 115 pounds compared to higher weights overseas. The field today also has less than half of the participants as Moneycantbuymelove’s last victory and it should generally be an easier trip for jockey J.P. Spencer who is making the trip for this one today.
The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational: Gio Ponti returns to Belmont
Gio Ponti (#1) leads a favored entry today with Winchester (#1A) for trainer Chris Clement and will be a very tough team to beat in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at a 1 ½ mile distance. Although only paying a 6-5 morning line, Ramon Dominguez stays aboard Gio Ponti today where he was victorious at Belmont going a 1 3/8 mile distance in the Man O’War back in July. Gio Ponti has won 4 out of 5 races on the Belmont turf in his career with the only second place finish being by less than a length.
Should the Clement entry not come through, I will have a few bucks on Presious Passion (#7). I took Presious Passion the last two times out and still think back to his blazing victory at Monmouth back on July 4 at the United Nations Handicap – it is a race to watch if you still have not seen it. But last time it was the Arlington Million in Chicago where a weak clunker happened and I would say it’s do or die today. At the very least, some value in the odds happens here at a 6-1 morning line thanks to being off a disappointing effort.
More big money action around the country today
Although the Jockey Club Gold Cup card is huge in purses, some other rich big Breeders Cup prep races happen today around the country as well. Philadelphia Park hosts the Fitz Dixon Cotillon Stakes with a $750,000 purse featuring one of the best fillies this year in Careless Jewel. The Hawthorne Gold Cup and Indiana Derby have purses of $500,000 each and will also be worth checking out.
Next weekend: Oak Tree and Keeneland take the spotlight
Oak Tree is where the Breeders Cup will be next month, but before that a big prep race card is featured there next weekend as some contenders get ready for the synthetic surface there. The turf will also have action as the Yellow Ribbon Stakes will have the ladies going 1 ¼ miles for $400,000.
Keeneland will have big action on both Saturday and Sunday next weekend including the $600,000 Shadwell Turf Mile. A couple of $500,000 races will also occur with the Dixiana Breeders Futurity and the Juddmonte Spinster Stakes.
I will be back next Saturday and Sunday with a further look at these cards as action keeps heating up in the fall’s horse racing world. Good luck at the betting windows until then.