2023 KY Derby - technical handicapping

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  • ChuckyTheGoat
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 04-04-11
    • 37286

    #1
    2023 KY Derby - technical handicapping
    OK. I'm a FAN of horse-racing, but I don't follow it regularly. Specifically, I enjoy the Triple Crown races. And the KY Derby is obviously the gem.

    As a boy, I read about the historical Derby winners. At one point in time, I could name MOST of the all-time winners.

    Let's start with a few technicals on how the indicators play for the KY Derby.

    1) Any value to Ragozin vs Thorograph?

    2) Any value to Brisnet vs Beyer?

    3) What about running style for this race?
    ...It's a long race. Some cappers will look for Late Speed on this race. Thought is that the big field will cancel each other out. What horse can get a good trip and steal it late?

    OK, that's my initial post.

    One observation on this year's field. I know Kingsbarns is 3-for-3. Not sure his speed figures make him worth a bet, I may throw him out.
    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
  • ChuckyTheGoat
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 04-04-11
    • 37286

    #2
    Pretty knowledgeable video:

    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
    Comment
    • JBEX
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 01-02-12
      • 23403

      #3
      I respect and have used the sheet numbers over the years ..surprised (as he was) that kingsbarns la derby earned a very good number in spite of what seemed like a slow time


      no particular opinion on whether beyer or brisnet is the better speed figure ..the video I posted in str's thread (6446) is worth a watch if you haven't ..it covers running style and other important aspects of the race
      Comment
      • ChuckyTheGoat
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 04-04-11
        • 37286

        #4
        Originally posted by JBEX
        I respect and have used the sheet numbers over the years ..surprised (as he was) that kingsbarns la derby earned a very good number in spite of what seemed like a slow time


        no particular opinion on whether beyer or brisnet is the better speed figure ..the video I posted in str's thread (6446) is worth a watch if you haven't ..it covers running style and other important aspects of the race
        I will go watch that video. Thank you, Jbex. I need all the help I can get.
        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
        Comment
        • JBEX
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 01-02-12
          • 23403

          #5
          Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
          I will go watch that video. Thank you, Jbex. I need all the help I can get.
          no problem chucky
          Comment
          • str
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-12-09
            • 11734

            #6
            Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
            OK. I'm a FAN of horse-racing, but I don't follow it regularly. Specifically, I enjoy the Triple Crown races. And the KY Derby is obviously the gem.

            As a boy, I read about the historical Derby winners. At one point in time, I could name MOST of the all-time winners.

            Let's start with a few technicals on how the indicators play for the KY Derby.

            1) Any value to Ragozin vs Thorograph?

            2) Any value to Brisnet vs Beyer?

            3) What about running style for this race?
            ...It's a long race. Some cappers will look for Late Speed on this race. Thought is that the big field will cancel each other out. What horse can get a good trip and steal it late?

            OK, that's my initial post.

            One observation on this year's field. I know Kingsbarns is 3-for-3. Not sure his speed figures make him worth a bet, I may throw him out.
            All those figures and numbers have a value but at the end of the day it will be your own interpretation and reasoning of those various numbers that will take over.

            As for looking for late speed in longer races it will come down to the pace. The phrase “Pace makes the race” is true very often.

            Trips depend on so many variables, unless it is uncontested speed or pure speed with a closer or two, it’s really hard to know for sure prior to it taking place.

            As for who wins?

            It’s the beauty of all the opinions and angles that makes it what it is.

            GL Chucky!
            Comment
            • ChuckyTheGoat
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 04-04-11
              • 37286

              #7
              Thx, str. I know my limits.

              I would say that there are only two sporting events per year where I might feel "obliged" to bet:
              *Super Bowl, and
              *KY Derby

              I won't say I bet em EVERY year. But they're events I enjoy watching. Virtually every year, I study and generate an opinion that I back with $$.

              Full respect to you guys who live and breathe horses. I know it's a lot of work. In post #1, I was acknowledging that there are Tools of the Trade.

              Of course, the KY Derby is the marquee event of the horse racing year. Always fun to break it down and get to a selection. Would love to get a piece of the Derby exotic payouts, one of these years.
              Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
              Comment
              • ChuckyTheGoat
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 04-04-11
                • 37286

                #8


                Think I got the horse I'm looking at: *Reincarnate.

                Going to look for a price. Might put in some exotics w/ Reincarnate on top.
                Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                Comment
                • ChuckyTheGoat
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 04-04-11
                  • 37286

                  #9
                  Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat


                  Think I got the horse I'm looking at: *Reincarnate.

                  Going to look for a price. Might put in some exotics w/ Reincarnate on top.
                  I was going to bet Reincarnate.

                  With the Forte scratch, however, all these Tote odds are so blurred. Not convinced I'm catching value.

                  Will likely pass the Derby, which is unusual for me.
                  Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                  Comment
                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 04-04-11
                    • 37286

                    #10
                    $20: Reincarnate to win.
                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                    Comment
                    • str
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 01-12-09
                      • 11734

                      #11
                      GL Chucky !
                      Comment
                      • ChuckyTheGoat
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 04-04-11
                        • 37286

                        #12
                        Originally posted by str
                        GL Chucky !
                        Thx, str.

                        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                        Comment
                        • str
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 01-12-09
                          • 11734

                          #13
                          Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                          Thx, str.

                          That guy is spot on.

                          Thanks Chucky.
                          Comment
                          • ChuckyTheGoat
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 04-04-11
                            • 37286

                            #14
                            Originally posted by str
                            That guy is spot on.

                            Thanks Chucky.
                            Thx for the reply, str.

                            Appreciate the tips from seasoned horse guys like you. My philosophy on Betting and Other Things is pretty simple:
                            *Respect for SPECIALIZATION.

                            So often, people give up b4 they start. If you venture into something, you should strive for expertise. Seek out an edge that most others won't figure out.

                            I used to read horse-racing books. Never went further than that for me. But it makes a lot of sense that one can interpret a horse's body-language.
                            Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                            Comment
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