top speed figures heading into the Derby

[JBEX]

was not able to post the link that I wanted but what I wrote is fine without it..ignore the title of thread


biggest thing of note to me is how much faster on scale brisnet thinks the wood memorial is than beyer does.. I have not seen this calculated but I would say bris's have it 9-10 lengths faster based on lengths behind values and pars.. I do not know the beyer par for grade 1 routes this time of year
but I'm guessing low 100's.. if that's the case I believe my estimate is ballpark

if anybody knows what it is please post.. it will be on the derby past performances page of the drf.. I use the brisnets


handicapping is hard enough without having to deal with this.. guess you stick with who you use which would be a lot easier if it was only a few lengths



not commiting but I think it's going to be MESSIER for me.. He finished behind Taiba in the Santa Anita Derby but because he was closer to the pace earned a higher timeform (which factors in pace)
.. they both have run the best timeform's of all the horse's entering the Kentucky Derby


I often talk about running lines.. his line in the Los Alamitos Futurity on 12/11, which he followed up with a 15 length win in the Bob Lewis, is very similar to his line last out in the SAD.. Expensive horse with classy distance pedigree top and bottom (Empire Maker out of a Smart Strike mare).. Biggest concern is he was competing against small fields and has run only in So Cal..His figures on the brisnets have improved every race from his debut to finishing 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby last out

[JBEX]

was not able to post the link that I wanted but what I wrote is fine without it..ignore the title of thread


biggest thing of note to me is how much faster on scale brisnet thinks the wood memorial is than beyer does.. I have not seen this calculated but I would say bris's have it 9-10 lengths faster based on lengths behind values and pars.. I do not know the beyer par for grade 1 routes this time of year
but I'm guessing low 100's.. if that's the case I believe my estimate is ballpark

if anybody knows what it is please post.. it will be on the derby past performances page of the drf.. I use the brisnets


handicapping is hard enough without having to deal with this.. guess you stick with who you use which would be a lot easier if it was only a few lengths



not commiting but I think it's going to be MESSIER for me.. He finished behind Taiba in the Santa Anita Derby but because he was closer to the pace earned a higher timeform (which factors in pace)
.. they both have run the best timeform's of all the horse's entering the Kentucky Derby


I often talk about running lines.. his line in the Los Alamitos Futurity on 12/11, which he followed up with a 15 length win in the Bob Lewis, is very similar to his line last out in the SAD.. Expensive horse with classy distance pedigree top and bottom (Empire Maker out of a Smart Strike mare).. Biggest concern is he was competing against small fields and has run only in So Cal..His figures on the brisnets have improved every race from his debut to finishing 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby last out

also worth noting is Taiba may have been a little sharper coming into the SAD off 5 weeks rest while MESSIER was coming off 9 weeks rest

[Pigpen]

Messier may get lost in the huge pools and go off as an overlay after his 2nd in the SAD. They draw the post positions tomorrow early afternoon.

[JBEX]

Messier may get lost in the huge pools and go off as an overlay after his 2nd in the SAD. They draw the post positions tomorrow early afternoon.

there's nothing subtle about how good he is ,at least in the brisnet pp's..as you said pigpen definitely a good thing he finished 2nd there and I don't think it's out of the realm that extra 4 weeks meant he was a little less fit..possible they'll also draw the conclusion how will he get the derby distance when he couldn't hang in at a furlong less. ..I could see him going off 6 or 7-1

[JBEX]

obviously hope he doesn't draw an extreme post

[BOA12]

was not able to post the link that I wanted but what I wrote is fine without it..ignore the title of thread


biggest thing of note to me is how much faster on scale brisnet thinks the wood memorial is than beyer does.. I have not seen this calculated but I would say bris's have it 9-10 lengths faster based on lengths behind values and pars.. I do not know the beyer par for grade 1 routes this time of year
but I'm guessing low 100's.. if that's the case I believe my estimate is ballpark

if anybody knows what it is please post.. it will be on the derby past performances page of the drf.. I use the brisnets


handicapping is hard enough without having to deal with this.. guess you stick with who you use which would be a lot easier if it was only a few lengths



not commiting but I think it's going to be MESSIER for me.. He finished behind Taiba in the Santa Anita Derby but because he was closer to the pace earned a higher timeform (which factors in pace)
.. they both have run the best timeform's of all the horse's entering the Kentucky Derby


I often talk about running lines.. his line in the Los Alamitos Futurity on 12/11, which he followed up with a 15 length win in the Bob Lewis, is very similar to his line last out in the SAD.. Expensive horse with classy distance pedigree top and bottom (Empire Maker out of a Smart Strike mare).. Biggest concern is he was competing against small fields and has run only in So Cal..His figures on the brisnets have improved every race from his debut to finishing 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby last out

I'll let you know J when get The Form. May actually buy the hard copy, my buddy at the newsstand misses me. I'm leaning Taiba/ M E Smith.

[JBEX]

I'll let you know J when get The Form. May actually buy the hard copy, my buddy at the newsstand misses me. I'm leaning Taiba/ M E Smith.

yeah something nice about getting it in paper form..pun unintended ..be curious what the par is ..
..I'm guessing around 102 and if anything a couple of points higher

he'd be my other but I liked what pigpen said about the 2nd place (to Taiba) finish offering value along with some of the other things I mentioned .. could be a 50 yo + jock exacta

[JBEX]

was not able to post the link that I wanted but what I wrote is fine without it..ignore the title of thread


biggest thing of note to me is how much faster on scale brisnet thinks the wood memorial is than beyer does.. I have not seen this calculated but I would say bris's have it 9-10 lengths faster based on lengths behind values and pars.. I do not know the beyer par for grade 1 routes this time of year
but I'm guessing low 100's.. if that's the case I believe my estimate is ballpark

if anybody knows what it is please post.. it will be on the derby past performances page of the drf.. I use the brisnets


handicapping is hard enough without having to deal with this.. guess you stick with who you use which would be a lot easier if it was only a few lengths



not commiting but I think it's going to be MESSIER for me.. He finished behind Taiba in the Santa Anita Derby but because he was closer to the pace earned a higher timeform (which factors in pace)
.. they both have run the best timeform's of all the horse's entering the Kentucky Derby


I often talk about running lines.. his line in the Los Alamitos Futurity on 12/11, which he followed up with a 15 length win in the Bob Lewis, is very similar to his line last out in the SAD.. Expensive horse with classy distance pedigree top and bottom (Empire Maker out of a Smart Strike mare).. Biggest concern is he was competing against small fields and has run only in So Cal..His figures on the brisnets have improved every race from his debut to finishing 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby last out

will be on

#6 messier (7-1) current odds





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