jbex vs lkid1 maidens only contest

[JBEX]

Yes anytime my man, I'll of course keep going , until I get to $300 risked or pass your finished total




Great contest






Thanks

no problem



feel good I finished in the black (with today's).. that gulfstream miss early in the contest was the one I needed to make it a real nice sample but that's horse racing

maybe do something for saratoga.. one like this for the meet and another similar to the other we just started.. seems to be going well..good luck rest of the way

[Louisvillekid1]

Absolutely J

Great job, And this is far from over, Im by no means guaranteed to be in black

Im not being selective , I just miss some days here and there

your an animal lol

[JBEX]

yeah it's not a gimme .. before today 168 remaining and assuming I miss my last shot tomorrow you need about 125.. so at least you have a bit of a challenge ahead of you.. glad I could provide it lol

[Louisvillekid1]

oh you hit today!

VERY NICE!!

[JBEX]

oh you hit today!

VERY NICE!!

thanks.. yeah the belmont firster paid $26 and the other got 2nd and made me a cool 30 cents lol.. 8-1 ml and went off 2-1..probably use my last 6 tomorrow

[Louisvillekid1]

Terranova on fire

That horse had a huge bet to be 4/1 early on, i assume from the barn

I went to the store and came back to see went off 12/1

Excellet score

I was saying to myself 5% first time trainer taking 10/1 to 4/1 with joel is live


He was 2: 0-1-1 then won back to back to 4:2-1-1, and syndergard who i always fade broke through the gate

[JBEX]

thanks..wasn't aware he opened that low so as you said probably stable money..definitely fit the bill of expensive relative to ped which I like ..the value is with these mid range guys who occasionally get something better than their normal stock..if the talents their to win 1st out even guys who normally aren't good (or don't try) at it can pop one..on the brisnet stats he is low % first out over a decent size sample but reality is its still not enough..i'll go against the stats if I like the horse

[Louisvillekid1]

Excellent call j

that is the prototypical example

of what you bring that others cannot

[JBEX]

I mean if chad or todd have these types the values usually gone.. if you do the pedigree work then wait for these middle guys to get a good one you have something.. and I don't like the mega expensive ones.. the expensive relative to the specs is my favorite angle

[Louisvillekid1]

How about Cezanne 18/1 to win derby before the win today and after the Charlie injury and and failed drug test ???

honestly baffert is getting close to my feelings like servis & Navarro

and if he is...

well , those first mentioned, I want to torture

I want to go Law abiding citizen on Navarro and hang XY jet’s picture up

if you seen the movie j , you get it

[JBEX]

I glanced at cezanne (know he cost $3.65M) but didn't see the race..guess it was very impressive by the odds given to him to win the derby..have to watch the race and see what the figure is


no I didn't see the movie but the horse sounds familiar..guess that's one he got caught with

[Louisvillekid1]

It’s sad we have to factor this into our handicapping

[JBEX]

the allowance race at the same distance was about 1.5 secs faster so figure probably not out of the park

[JBEX]

It’s sad we have to factor this into our handicapping

yeah these guys are no good for the game

[JBEX]

just looked at the pedigree info on cezanne..of course any horse that costs that has to be something special and curlin of course an elite sire..but the dam info imo is just above average and not sensational by any means..so to me (unless it's also based on a fast sales workout) that price is even more impressive..horse could be a monster down the road

[JBEX]

belmont

R3 #2 life changer (10-1) 3WP winner $26.80/8.50

this firster cost a bunch relative to the pedigree specs(that always includes dam's race and production record along with stallion fee)..dam sire an oldie but he was a son of mr prospector and strictly speed.. terranova has popped with at least 1 big price msw winner before.. one of the best % sprint riders named.. and of course like the ultra positive name which I've mentioned before as being a plus factor for me

churchill

R7 #5 america's surprise (8-1) 3WP 2nd @ 2-1 (really bet) $4.20




..

52.95
6.30

281.40 +59.25



risk $294/ return $340.65

[JBEX]

OK my last play


belmont

R10 #7 amazing ride (6-1) 3WP

[Louisvillekid1]

Belmont r5

$4WP #1A River Nile (6/1)

I like these Cario Princes' and I think Breen has this one ready

[JBEX]

yeah I thought sending him a 1 turn mile a sign of confidence along with the pedigree stuff but didn't have it

[Louisvillekid1]

Risked $132 / Returned $208

Risked $162 / Returned $208

[JBEX]

OK my last play


belmont

R10 #7 amazing ride (6-1) 3WP...out @ 7-1

completely shut off in the stretch and think at least 2nd without trouble..that's it for me.. good luck kid !!


*******
risk $300/return $ 340

+13%


*******

[Louisvillekid1]

J The opener tomorrow may be the strongest MSW in this contest

#5 Zippy Baby (8/1) , value play $4WP

[Louisvillekid1]

R7

#2 Brooklyn Hieghts (20/1)

when manny rides for this barn they never miss the Super

$2W $6P

[Louisvillekid1]

The 7th is great as well

cus of late moves

the 10th solid but like the duece

[Louisvillekid1]

Belmont r5 (fri) $10 Ex Box : 1,3,13 ($60) , & $20 ex 13 w/ 1,3 ($40) Chad brown/ manny beatable (off the board ) on the #2 ... Asmussen / Jose beatable ( off the board ) on the #5 This is how value presents itself in Ny ... but mostly a hunch play TBHI'm putting this in tomorrow

[JBEX]

J The opener tomorrow may be the strongest MSW in this contest

#5 Zippy Baby (8/1) , value play $4WP

#2 wink fits my profile very well..expensive relative to the specs,even though there are more expensive horses in the field..also above avg turf,speed and first out..the other ward same sire and dam sire combo as war of will..extreme distance even though they are very capable of getting an early winner

[Louisvillekid1]

Belmont r5 (fri) $10 Ex Box : 1,3,13 ($60) , & $20 ex 13 w/ 1,3 ($40) Chad brown/ manny beatable (off the board ) on the #2 ... Asmussen / Jose beatable ( off the board ) on the #5 This is how value presents itself in Ny ... but mostly a hunch play TBHI'm putting this in tomorrow

Changed my mind want to key #13 r5 ... so $20 Ex 13 w/ 1,3 ($40) , $40 W #13 ($40) , then $2 All / 13...

[JBEX]

R7

#2 Brooklyn Hieghts (20/1)

when manny rides for this barn they never miss the Super

$2W $6P

great race and will probably be a contest play...between 4 and 9 for me..both cost a bunch relative with the latter an extraordinary multiple. .60x the stallion fee with what i would consider minor production on the bottom..linda rice good msw but below avg firsters..like to see this one played a bit..higher than ml probably dead..the 4 besides what I said castellano riding for gleaves?,who has popped at least 1 monster vs specials in a debut..working like she means it ..may play them both

[Louisvillekid1]

Risked $162 / Returned $208

Risked $178 / Returned $223.40

[Louisvillekid1]

Tomorrow bel Sat

R7 $6 W #3 Windfall Profit (6/1)

[Louisvillekid1]

#2 wink fits my profile very well..expensive relative to the specs,even though there are more expensive horses in the field..also above avg turf,speed and first out..the other ward same sire and dam sire combo as war of will..extreme distance even though they are very capable of getting an early winner

great call , put away speed as the other ward

teamed up for $100 plus Ex

[JBEX]

thanks..that one had a lot of positives going for it and got a little lost in there with the others

[Louisvillekid1]

Impressive turning away contested fractions

keep posting your thoughts j

it helps with my real money if I’m missing something

[JBEX]

will do