GP 3/28- Florida Derby Day

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-26-20, 09:19 PM

Looking forward to your thoughts

**Jellymancan** · 03-27-20, 05:07 PM

Here are my final thoughts. Not sure how I'm gonna spread out my money yet. Will think about it now into tomorrow then post final plays. I didn't pay attention at all but Saez is going crazy again so I'll keep that in mind. Good luck all!

Race 1
#3-Woodfin- Liked what I saw from him at CD last year, off a huge layoff, I like Bravo, might have a chance if ready.
#5-Zabava- Likes the distance (3 for 7) and turning back from longer, Florent is hot/Maker on turf=things to like.
#7-Codrington- Low speed # in last, but prior turf fits.
#9-Temple City Terror- Took 9 to break maiden, but Tyler sticks, Walsh better on turf sprint than routes (18% to 13%)
#12-Enjoyitwhileyoucan (added this one on second go around)- Ahead of #7 in slop, second off layoff, Quality Road daughter, What sticks out to me...Luis jumps off #6 won 2 last 3 for this one...his first time on this one, close to 30% win clip with trainer. Lots of value here interesting to see if 12-1 sticks or goes much lower.
#14-Sweet Hitch Hiker (AE)- If he gets in, will need a clean start, won 2 out 6 on turf here, blinkers on, big value here.

Race 2
#1- Jake Rocks- Only other time 3rd off layoff won (but on turf), inside post but longshot.
#3- Brutus- Dirt first time, best jockey he’s ever gotten, cutting back in distance but longshot
#5- Beau Luminaire- Win last time was impressive, cuts back, against winners now, I fear a drop off such a good performance.
#6-Traveling Midas- Stretching out, second off layoff losing to Soldado who won yesterday at the wire, good AM workouts, Trust him more than #5.
#11- Top Seed (added this one on second go around)- Stepping up, Rosario on (Ortiz hurt), why not Javy or Johnny V (on th #10 who has had only 2 rides past year for Saffie, odd)--I might be overlooking both of his in here as the #8 is also 3-3-0-0 here.
#12- Bernin’ Thru Gold- Luis aboard, won here before, but this post is brutal.

Race 3
#3- Largent- Stretching out, was on the fast pace last time and finished well, 3rd off layoff for Pletcher and Luis, watch out.
#4- Faraway Kitten- Maker sold, lost as ⅘ fav against 40kclaim and had a bad trip, Tyler goes to the #5 (who was behind this horse 2 back) 3-0-2-0 at GP, 6-3-1-1 at this distance overall. Some warning signs here, but some positive things as well.
#8- Underleveraged- Cutting back, been fav last couple times, won off 2 year layoff, not concerned about that as Chad Brown 27% between 60-180 days, Javy has COVID-19 so maybe Rosario gets switched to this one or Leparoux gets the nod.
#10- Plus Que Parfait- Second off layoff, won UAE last year, Johnny V hops aboard a horse training well for a price. Gotta include somewhere.
#13- Award Winner (AE)- If he gets in, watch out. Weakened to finish behind the #3 and 7 last out, but he was off since Aug 19. Tough post (was in the 1 last time) but I love Manny and second time lasix, most likely #3 on top, but if this one gets in probably be my second choice.
#14- Ry’s the Guy (AE)- If he gets in, finished right before the #13 (out of 5 post) Finished in front of the #5 (who keeps improving and makes some sense in here) Ran best race ever last time, but like #13 tough post here

Race 4
#2- Captain D- Cross a line in the last on dirt,I see some good turf races here, Zayas back aboard for Saffie, good post, good value.
#3- Get smokin- Tried wiring last out, second to Fied Pass barely(Field Pass just won a gr 3 at Turfway beating fav. Invader ridden by I.Ortiz, will probably try to wire again with Jaramillo, Third off layoff didn’t go so well last year. Been firing bullets in AM on turf. Watch out, could win.
#5- Inter Miami- Good performance last out, tries turf first time, Some turf pedigree, longshot probably gets out front see what she’s got.
#6- Vitalogy- This horse is deserving favorite with Javy but since no Javy could be #10, #6 hasn’t done much wrong, turning back after winning a G3, lost to the #10 two back, but has had outside posts in many of these. We’ll see who replaces Javy, will matter in my pick.

#10- Decorated Invader- Horse is a beast, No I. Ortiz but this trainer jockey combo is fine, Coming off a layoff but should be fine. I remember watching him last race in the Breeders cup losing to some good ones. Likely winner if ready.
#14- Diamonds Enjoy (AE)- If he getsin, has pedigree from Kitten’s Joy, most likely will get firm turf for the first time but huge longshot.

Race 5
#3- Network Effect- Drops from G1 in December vs. Max Security where he wasn’t humiliated, this spot makes more sense for a win but big drop, same 27% Brown stat as a previous race, Javy substitute we’ll see. Makes tons of sense.
#5- Chewing Gum- Class drop from G3 (with terrible post), I like Bill Mott who goes with Geroux who is much better than Leparoux. Probably top pick/the one I’m rooting for.
#6- Squeezeadios- He goes back to one turn, GP- 3-1-2-0 at this distance, struggled at the end of last two races with that distance, Paco better jockey (minus him looking around too much at times for me). I’m sure Paco will have him in the lead pack.
#7-Wind of Change- This one is a wildcard. Ran great in Brazil, blinks added today. Second start now in the U.S., Zayas aboard, could be ready.
#8- Musical Heart- Coming out of two tougher turf ones against many horses going later on this card, back on dirt where he’s 2-1-0-1 at this distance. His effort 3 starts ago gives him a fighting chance.

Race 6
#2- Bodexpress- Taking this one off my list.
#5- Just Whistle- Second start off a 7 month layoff. Tough trip last time with much traffic and could improve here, broke maiden second off layoff, will need to be better. Manny makes me have to play this one somehow.
#6- American Tattoo (Arg)- Drops back in distance, Pletcher 29% turf to dirt, Javy replacement, I will look elsewhere as he’s too short a price for me against a horse that will need a better speed # against these tougher horses.
#7- Eye of the Jedi- Does his best work here, will need to increase his speed #, blinks added today, and I’m a Star Wars fan so I have to play somewhere. Ha.
#8- Sir Anthony- Finished the year on a downward path, but he’s 5/12 on dirt, 3-1-1-0 at GP, finished second to a good horse in Marconi last year in a G2, won a G3, 2-1-0-1 at this distance. Geroux could go back to back in race 5 and 6.
#11- Prompt- Loves the distance 4-3-0-0, Zayas on as Geroux was on this one last time, speed numbers need to be better but a lot of value here for Mott.

Race 7
#5- Cheermeister- Beyond solid. 4-3-0-0, keeps improving,Sensible.
#7- Walk in Marrakesh (IRE)- Has done well since crossing over from IRE, two good seconds, sits a food stalking trip. Jersey Joe, I like.
#8- She’s my Type-Lost to the #5 last time out but deal with traffic, Tyler back on so will be ready
#9- Seducer- Smoked the field last time out as Rosario relaxed towards the end, this one has potential, gets lasix today, sleeper to romp again.
#12- Heir of Light- Last two were rough, jockey stayed aboard after the layoff, training ok, first time on turf with some back pedigree.

Race 8
#2 Gartner and Tie- Been away since the Spa G2, G3 before, has a lot of potential, 7f tricky distance but this one is 3-1-2-0. You never know fired a bullet 3/15.
#3-Last Judgement- Stretching out, Johnny V knows well w/Pletcher, 4th in only running at this distance, Looked good off layoff
#5- Bourbon Resolution- Long layoff, great early 2019 then up in class not so good, Off breaks has a 1st and 3rd finish so 21% +180 days, should be ready.
#7- Jackson- Loves the distance 5-2-1-1-0, just won G3 last time out, Bullet on 3/21, Jaramillo is 5-2-2-0 overall, 3-2-1-0 dirt. Really like this one.
#8- Vekemo- 10 month layoff since derby, first start of 4 year old season, won a G2 and G3 last year, third in only start here (Fountain of Youth) No Javy would like more if Manny is on board, who gets the nod on the most talented one. Weaver is crazy hot lately, we’ll see.

Race 9
#2- Zofelle (IRE)- Rosario instead of Geroux (who goes to the 9) only lost by a couple lengths last time, the pace will be there for her (by #10 and 12) to win at the end. In good form.
#4- Smart Shot- 3-1-1-0 at this distance, 1st and 3rd second off layoff, Lost to Starship Jubilee in a race where two came back to a win and a second.
#5-Newspaperofrecord(IRE)- Great 1st year, Inconsistent 2nd, I.Ortiz only rider but now Javy’s replacement, Brown always has his ready training well 3/15 bullet.
#6- La Signare (FR)- Improvement last race, now third time off layoff for first time, very intriguing for Walsh
#10- Jakarta- Stretching out, will probably be out front for the wire job by Zayas via Maker, Could do it but some tough closers here.

Race 10
#1- Beale Street- Always in the top 3 on turf (7 out of 8), only time not was at this distance, keeps getting better but this is a tougher field, Johnny V at a price though.
#3- Irsa (ARG)- Bad first trip in US, won four times in turf in homeland, better jockey so could help
#5- Gentle Ruler- 3-2-0-1 at this distance, 5 out of 6 at 1 mile 5/16 -1 ½, coming off a 5 months layoff but 1st and 3rd when she did before. Looks good
#6- Mean Mary- Backed up her allowance wins with G3 at 1 1/2 , Hasn’t raced much for a 4 year old, but curious to see if Luis will try to wire again, tougher her.
#9- Get Explicit- Reaching here, but this one has two races at this distance or more where she closed well, 3 starts back, decent performance, bombs away.
#12- Elizabeth Way (IRE)- Great since coming to the US,won by two different styles first from rail big behind, and G3 on leading holding on, Paco stays aboard but bad draw

Race 11
#3- Spartanka- Maker moves her up after the first win (13 times) horse she beat came back broke maiden last weekend, will need to improve to compete.
#5- Spice is Nice- Expensive horse 1 mil, Finished runner up to #9 last time, Pletcher w/ Javy replacement, bred for the distance but no value.
#6- Swiss Skydiver- Underrated, broke slow in 2 out of 4 races, should have a solid pace to stalk, Paco aboard for McPeek who I like
#8-Dream Marie- Two bullets since last race, behind #9 and #5 in the last race going 4-5 wide into stretch, but showed she belongs here. 15-1 is too high for me.
#9- Tonalist’s Shape- Unbeaten at all different distances, she has the best numbers in the field, have to include, but she is beatable.
#12- Sunset Promise- Better on the lawn, Pace will be faster than last ones (Lake Avenue and others), decent dirt pedigree but more sprint, horrible post but Geroux.

Race 12
#1- Channel Cat- Smoked by the #9 last time out, couple bullets recently, Rosario for Pletcher as I think he’ll be aggressive early and mess with the pace.
#2- Bemma’s Boy- Pacesetter probably for the #9 (Both Maker and #5) 2-1-1-o at this distance, Geroux for a price on the lawn, sure.
#3- Spooky Channel- Horse likes this distance, won here two back, bombs away.
#4- Current- Pletcher had Javy on this one, so he believes something, some talent but will need a big step up.
#7- Prince of Arabia- Panaci knows this place, horse has been in these tough races, decent run style who could make things interesting late, beneath
#9- Zulu Alpha- Horse to beat, amazing form, loves GP anything else? Rest of my picks will probably be behind him.
#10-Focus Group- Won here last year off long layoff, can close, CC not the best off claim, has back form Luis aboard

Race 13
#1- English Bee- Race should have the same pace as last and Manny takes over for a horse that just ran his best race ever. 6-3-0-1 at this distance.
#3- March to Arch- Consistent as ever, Beyer’s over 97 last 7 out of last 8, Tyler very familiar with this one should be off the pace with a chance.
#5- Maraud- Hasn’t won in long time but can compete in here with a 5-2-0-3 at GP, but 5-0-0-4 at distance
#10- Sombeyay- Current form is solid, Prat made a great rally G3 Canadian Turf, 2-1-1-0 at GP, 3-1-2-0 at this distance, great chance probably one to beat.
#11- Mr. Dumas- Bet him last time out with Franco, who made move but flattened in stretch run,, gets Reyes, I’m not counting him out yet even though Manny goes to the #1.
#12- El Tormenta- Ran decent last time out at BC, has a lot of class, won G1 last year, makes sense.

Race 14
#1- As Seen on TV- Prior two starts before last were good, two turns first time was yuck, maybe gets used to distance with a good post.
#5- Gouverneur Morris- Impressive one,last won at Tampa to prep for this, Johnny V aboard, Pletcher has won this race 5 times, best shot to beat #7
#7- Tiz The Law- Horse is a beast. My favorite horse of the day with no value and I don’t care. Manny in the saddle, encountered trouble last time and prevailed. One of the tops plays. The rest in here is wishful thinking, but he isn't a lock.
#8- My First Grammy- Horse keeps getting better and better, has good breeding, most likely in the speed and near lead at stretch...then the fun begins. Bombs away.
#9- Independence Hall- Lost last time out as 3-5, horse he lost to sucked in last race in Tampa, was undefeated before last with equipment issues as well.

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-27-20, 05:54 PM

Really enjoyed that

thank you for sharing

**Easy-Rider 66** · 03-27-20, 05:57 PM

Get em Jelly Man

**Jellymancan** · 03-28-20, 10:36 AM

P5. Gp
$.50 3,5,7,12/5,6,11/3,5/2,6,10/3 $36.00

**Jellymancan** · 03-28-20, 10:36 AM

GP R1

Exbox $2.. 3/12

**Jellymancan** · 03-28-20, 11:06 AM

GP R2

ExBox $2.. 2/6

**Jellymancan** · 03-28-20, 11:35 AM

GP R3---Going against the #3.

ExBox $2..8,10

**Jellymancan** · 03-28-20, 12:00 PM

GP R4

ExBox $2..2,3

**mrginandtonic** · 03-28-20, 12:02 PM

GL Jellyman...

**Jellymancan** · 03-28-20, 12:05 PM

Thanks. Fading favorites and go with all value when I play this small. GL to you as well.

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-28-20, 12:27 PM

get 'em!

**Jellymancan** · 03-28-20, 12:36 PM

GP R5

ExBox $2..6,7

**Jellymancan** · 03-28-20, 01:07 PM

GP R6

ExBox $2..8,11

**Jellymancan** · 03-28-20, 01:40 PM

gp r7-10 p4

3,5,8,11/2,3,5,7,8/2,6/3,6

Pasting over and the font is different so my edit isn't me changing anything after the race goes off it's me editing the font. Trust me, I've lost all so far, but under $100 so yippie. Ha.

**Jellymancan** · 03-28-20, 03:03 PM

Lost track of time, and didn't get P6 in so that sucks. Still alive p4.

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-28-20, 03:11 PM

hope you get it

**Jellymancan** · 03-28-20, 03:28 PM

GP p5 10-14

$0.50

3,6,7,9/5,7,8,12/9/1,3,10/1,5,7

**Jellymancan** · 03-28-20, 03:46 PM

GP p4 11-14

$0.50

7,8/2,4,9/8,11/5,7,10

**Jellymancan** · 03-28-20, 04:40 PM

GP R12

Exbox $5...2,3