Horse Racing partner wanted....

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  • curious
    Restricted User
    • 07-20-07
    • 9093

    #1
    Horse Racing partner wanted....
    I was bored last week so I created a database of all horse races at all tracks for the past 10 years. Then I found the average odds for all horses, then I found the standard deviation. Then I created percentile ranges for the odds from <=.5 to >=31. Then I calculated ROI for each range.

    The odds which had the top ROI was 8-1.

    So, I watch the toteboard and pick the entrant that is closest to equal to or greater than 8-1.

    I then bet this entrant with the formula $X to win $2X to place $4X to show. For example $500 to Win, $1000 to Place, $2000 to Show.

    I tried doing trifectas and superfectas but I don't know how to cap so I have to use all the other entrants and that is too many tickets, so it doesn't work out.

    I need to partner with someone who knows how to cap horse races who can help me build exactas, trifectas, and superfectas around my pick using entrants that actually have some chance of hitting the board. I don't know how to cap horses I just watch the toteboard and let the movements tell me what to do.

    After a week of doing this my pick hits the board 40-50% of the time at odds averaging >10-1.

    With odds of >10-1 and using the X, 2X, 4X ratio for WPS the pick only has to hit the board in order to make a profit. It does not have to actually win.

    I'm thinking if someone works with me who knows how to cap and can give me some other picks for exactas, tris and supers where we don't have to use the whole field, well this might be a license to print money.

    Yes, I backtested this but the backtest is not totally accurate because a lot of times the odds that the toteboard shows at 1 MTP are not the same odds that show up in the results because the odds change after the race goes off, so I can't say with certainty what the pick would have been at 1 or 2 MTP by looking at the results.

    I'm playing a hundred or so races every day and the 40-50% ratio is holding up. I'm posting some of these in a daily thread in the racing forum but I can't post them all because it moves too fast and I have to have the phone in one hand.

    Anyway, if anyone knows how to cap horses and wants to work with me just put a post in this thread.
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