Racing Touts With Write-Ups

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  • Getch13
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-13-18
    • 6941

    #1
    Racing Touts With Write-Ups
    Feel free to add whomever you like.

    by Scott Shapiro
    Opening day of the fall Keeneland meeting is upon us and that means a juicy 10-race card to get things rolling in Lexington, Kentucky.There are a number of attractive wagering opportunities spread over the Friday slate, but here are a few horses that will make or break my afternoon.

    RACE 1Noble Nebraskan (#4) (3-1) debuted at Saratoga on September 1 for trainer George Weaver. The $110,000 Keeneland September 2017 purchase for Susan and Jim Hill was very green in the paddock before his initial start, off a bit slowly from the gate and ran against the flow, but still finished well to earn third.The juvenile son of Noble Mission has been given over a month off and returns to make his second start after a trio of solid works at Saratoga. In a race where none of the first-time starters get my juices flowing, and the others with experience did little to impress in their previous tries, I like his chances to get to the wire first.I will single Noble Nebraskan in the early Pick 5 and key on top of vertical wagers over Just Kitten You (#6) (10-1), Pico Entry (#7)(8-1), Life Mission (#9) (5-2) and Temple (#12) (15-1).

    RACE 3
    Saracosa (#7) (9-2) saved ground early in her last start at legendary Churchill Downs under regular rider Corey Lanerie and appeared poised to earn her second lifetime score when they turned for home, but she encountered traffic in the stretch and never had a fair shake. The sophomore daughter of Bernardini cuts back a sixteenth of a mile and returns to a surface where she finished third in her debut back in late April.The Brendan Walsh trainee takes on deserving 8-5 morning-line favorite Virginia Key (#4) who finished third when last seen in the Gazelle (G2) at Aqueduct, but that filly has been sidelined for several months and is likely to get over bet off the 99 BRIS Speed rating earned in New York.Saracosa should sit a perfect outside stalking trip. With a cleaner voyage than she got in Louisville, she has a big chance to spring the minor upset on Friday. At 7-2 or higher I will bet to win.

    RACE 9
    The first Grade 1 race of the meet is the $400,000 Alcibiades. The 1 1/16-mile contest for two-year-old fillies is a “Win & You’re In” event for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).The post-time favorite has not won this race since My Conquestadory in 2013 and I am willing to take a chance against this year’s likely chalk in Restless Rider (#3) (3-1) despite an extremely impressive victory two-back in the Debutante Stakes at Churchill Downs.In that initial try against winners, the young filly was forced to check and lost a ton of momentum during the middle stages of the six-furlong dash, but overcame the trouble and won by 11 lengths in the end. The two-year-old daughter of Distorted Humor is certainly capable of getting to the wire first, but this field is too deep to take a short price.Instead I will lean on Into Trouble (#6) (15-1). The $180,000 Keeneland September 2017 purchase has done nothing wrong so far for trainer Ben Colebrook and enters her first graded try a perfect two-for-two. I specifically like the fact she has shown versatility winning her debut at Ellis Park from just off the early pace on August 11 and then overcame a slow start to upset a field of eight the Arlington-Washington Lassie on September 8. She should have no issues getting the route of ground and offers solid value at anything near her 15-1 morning-line price.I will bet the juvenile daughter of Into Mischief to win and play her in Daily Doubles starting in RACE 8, the $250,000 Phoenix (G2), with Promises Fulfilled (#1) (8-5) and Limousine Liberal (#4) (2-1).

    Let’s get the meeting started on the right foot! Good luck!
  • Getch13
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-13-18
    • 6941

    #2
    Santa Anita
    By Frank R. Scatoni

    INTRO
    There are two nice turf races as part of today’s challenging Late Pick 4, which is a fine way to head into this bonus-racing weekend that also includes Monday racing. Let’s see if we can pad our bankroll for the extra day! (And don’t forget that the Rainbow 6 single-ticket jackpot pool is guaranteed at $500K today.)

    LEG 1 (R5):
    The first of two turf races—a $32K claiming event for older horses going a mile on the lawn—kicks off today’s Late Pick 4. The rails are at 20-feet, and there are a bunch of tactically inclined runners, so a few of these should be attending the pace, keeping things honest.
    #1 LEWIS VALE (12/1) has been very consistent since coming to California, but his best work has come against lesser competition, and it looks like the wheels fell off last time when he stalked the pace before weakening going 9-furlongs at Del Mar. In his defense, the Del Mar course was tricky this summer, so maybe he just hated it, since his try in a starter-handicap here wasn’t so bad. He’ll get the right stalking trip, but he’ll need to show he can win at this level. GRADE: X.
    #2 POINT PIPER (4/1), the first Hollendorfer trainee, is an old class horse who hasn’t been able to beat similar claimers while racing on dirt. He’s run respectably, but it looks like he’s lost the will to win. That said, the Dorf shakes things up by taking off the blinkers and putting him on turf, a surface upon which he hasn’t run in a very long time. He’s a cool horse, but he’s 8-years-old and has clearly lost a step. GRADE: C.
    #3 CIMPL MAN (7/2) is another cool horse who has run some very nice races, including a decent second last time against similar foes at Del Mar. It was a very good effort, bouncing back after a poor race at a lower level for a different trainer. Van Dyke hops aboard, which means this one must be doing okay off the brief freshening, thus making him a contender. GRADE: B.
    #4 SECRETO PRIMERO (4/1) has always looked like a horse with distance limitations, but that didn’t stop him from winning two route races at Del Mar against $25K claimers, so perhaps this 6-year-old has finally figured out how to relax and conserve energy for when it matters most. He’s another cool old boy who tries hard every time, but note that his recent try at this $32K level saw him finish a length and a half behind Cimpl Man. GRADE: C.
    #5 PLAY HARD TO GET (8/1) just lost to Secreto Primero at the $25K level, so this 7-year-old will need to do better today. There was a time when he was competitive against much tougher, so a form-reversal is not out of the question, but his success really all depends on the trip he gets, since his last win came loose on the lead, yet last time, he came from way off the pace. At least the 5-pound weight-break won’t hurt. GRADE: X.
    #6 SAXON LORD (8/1) invades from up north where he just finished a decent third at this level, going off at 5/2. He seems tractable, which will come in handy in this spot, so Pereira can give him a good tracking trip—then it remains to be seen how he’ll fare on this circuit, since his best work has come up north. GRADE: C.
    #7 ROYAL ALBERT HALL (GB) (12/1) has picked up a ton of checks, so I will never knock a runner who has finished second or third a combined 17 times in 36 career starts—but that kind of “consistency” has been his curse as well, running well but failing to cross the wire first. He couldn’t beat time-restricted $32K foes last time, so he’ll need to do better today, but his best races are certainly a fit—but he’ll need to summon the will to win. GRADE: C.
    #8 RAPID RED (10/1) was eligible for the ship-and-win bonus last time when he made his first SoCal start, putting in a decent late run to finish fourth behind a few of these. He was 16-lengths off the pace at one point, so the fact that he picked up a small check is pretty impressive. O’Neill took him out of that race, and he now brings this one back while adding blinkers and putting up Bejarano. He could turn the tables today with a better trip. GRADE: A.
    #9 THE BIG TRAIN (6/1) has a very solid stretch run, so expect him to be motoring late, especially since he’s running for this $32K tag for the first time—and we all know that Miller spots them where they can win. He also removes the hood, which is a deadly move for him. Prat takes over, and there should be a decent enough pace for this N1X dropper. GRADE: A.
    #10 UPPER ROOM (12/1), the second Hollendorfer runner, needed $25K/N2L beaten-claimers to notch his second career victory—and that came going a mile on dirt. Dorf claimed him from that race and protected him in a starter-allowance at Los Al, where he ran fifth on the dirt, checking in behind stablemate Point Piper. He’ll need a step forward today. GRADE: X.
    #11 FABOZZI (3/1) (AE) just ran third at the $50K level, so he should be pretty tough in here if he can work out the right trip from this tough post. Baze will be aggressive to get good position early, so this one will likely get a stalking journey—but that isn’t always the winning trip on turf. He seems classier than most of these, but it is a little disappointing to see this former N2X winner descending down the class ladder. GRADE: B.

    LEG 2 (R6):
    Today’s second leg is a low-level $12,500/B event contested at a mile on the main track. Note that the condition is for N2L older horses, but any 3-year-old (who can have multiple wins) can run for the tag. Oddly enough, none of the sophomores are taking advantage of the multiple-win stipulation, making this basically just an N2L.
    #1 WISE CURLIN (4/1), the first Eurton entrant, is a bit feast-or-famine. He either runs a very competitive race or he’s nowhere to be found. He was no match for Haylord last time against $16K/N2L types, so he’ll need to do a lot better—but maybe he just hated the Del Mar track. He has plenty of speed, and his two races at this level over this track are good enough to put him in the frame. GRADE: B.
    #2 SPIRIT WORLD (30/1) is 1-for-17, and he’s been racing against much weaker foes. He exits sprint races, so expect Sanchez to gun hard and hope for the best, but his stamina will be surely called into question. GRADE: X.
    #3 HAYLORD (3/1) just ran second against $16K/N2L types at Del Mar, setting a fast pace before getting overtaken by the winner. It was a solid effort that he can build on, so he’s logical right back in this spot, especially if Quinonez can get him to relax a little bit while sitting right off the rail horse. GRADE: B.
    #4 SHOENHARDT (8/1) was 9/2 in his first SoCal start for Sadler, but he failed to raise a gallop against Haylord and other $16K/N2L foes. His next race at Los Al was a bit better, but he still could only manage fourth with a 5-pound weight-break, which he loses today. I always hate to toss a Sadler runner, but this 3-year-old needs marked improvement. GRADE: X.
    #5 PLATINUM EQUITY (7/5) is a 3-year-old who is winless on this circuit, but he’s been facing much tougher competition. I hate to see the precipitous drop from $32K to today’s lowly level, so that’s a big red flag, but if he’s even a shell of his former self, he should outclass these. GRADE: A.
    #6 INDIAN GULCH (6/1), the second Eurton runner, looked good breaking his maiden going a mile at Del Mar—tracking the pace before drawing off to win easily at 7/2. His next start wasn’t so good, however, but he was facing tougher starter foes, and he was off a bit slowly that day. The drop will certainly help, but he’s a 3-year-old who will need a step forward today. GRADE: B.
    #7 HARD ARCH (6/1) is a bit of a grinder who just ran fifth, losing to Haylord while getting a 5-pound weight-break. He’ll get that advantage again today, and it’s nice to see that his lone win came over this track, but he’ll need to be a bit sharper today to get the nod here. That said, he is making the third start of his form cycle, so he’s sitting on a peak effort. GRADE: B

    LEG 3 (R7):
    Today’s main event is a really neat $75K optional-claiming/N1X for 3-year-olds going 9-furlongs on the lawn with the rails at 20-feet. Like the other turf race, there are a few tactical runners in here, so assuming the jocks don’t try new tactics, the pace should be fair.
    #1 ANDESH (IRE) (4/1) attracts Prat after a dull run in the Del Mar Derby (G2) when he was sent off at 11/1. I liked him that day because he kept some decent company overseas (and had actually beaten River Boyne [Ire], who was favored in that race)—but he just never kicked on the way he did in his first U.S. start, where he ran on through the lane to finish fourth at this level and losing to Epical. He’s better than those starts, and he should be sitting on a peak effort, third start in the States—but D’Amato has been very chilly the last few months, so we’ll see if he can work some magic today. GRADE: A.
    #2 EXTRAORDINARY JERRY (12/1), the first O’Neill runner, was 20/1 at this level last time, and he was outkicked after a wide journey. He can move forward today, but note that his maiden win came loose on the lead against $100K maidens, so he will need a decent step forward. He does have tactical speed, so Roman should be aggressive here to give this one his best chance, since he’s not likely to outkick the classier stretch-runners in here. GRADE: X.
    #3 JIMMY CHILA (8/1), the second O’Neill charge, has speed, so he should be in the vanguard early. That speed helped him to victory three back when he beat age-restricted $40K claimers going a mile at Del Mar. Then he almost cleared this hurdle in his next start, losing by a nose. The wheels fell off last time with a more honest pace, so if things get a little hot up front, his stamina will be called into question. He’ll get the right trip, but he’ll have to fend off Shadow Sphinx, who beat him easily last time. GRADE: X.
    #4 MAGIC MUSKETIER (8/1) was a top pick for me last time because I thought he’d get a great set-up to show off his stretch run. Well, he did get a great set-up, but he was only good enough for third, losing to Shadow Sphinx. Hollendorfer is no fool—he knows this guy can’t win at this level on the square, so he legs up bug-boy Espinoza for the 5-pound weight-break. That should be good enough for a length, but he’ll need more than that to turn the tables on a few of these today. Expect him late. GRADE: C.
    #5 RISKY PROPOSITION (12/1) was 17/1 against a few of these last time, but he was outkicked and finished fourth. That was his first start for Spawr, who took him for $50K and has now protected him twice in a row. He’s eligible to improve, but he’ll need Shadow Sphinx to run a dud to get the measure of him. GRADE: X.
    #6 SHADOW SPHINX (4/1) uncorked a nice run last time to run second at this level after beating age-restricted $50K claimers two back. A repeat of his last race is good enough here—but keep in mind that the Del Mar turf course was strange this summer: some horses loved it; others hated it; so this guy will have to show he can bring his Del Mar game to the Great Race Place. GRADE: A.
    #7 MOVE OVER (GB) (7/2) has flashed ability in a bunch of his starts, but after two even runs against stakes foes, Sadler drops him into this AOC and runs him for the $75K tag. I don’t like that he’s for sale, but I’m guessing Sadler thinks no one will take him, so he’ll gamble here. His best makes him a contender, but note that all three of his wins have come going shorter. GRADE: B.
    #8 EPICAL (5/1) beat a very nice horse in his debut, but he’s been an in-and-outer ever since. His best race did come going today’s 9-furlongs, where he finished second at 31/1 at Del Mar in early summer. You can toss his poor run in the Del Mar Derby (G2), and I like the fact that he has a win over this course. He’s not impossible here. GRADE: B.
    #9 KYLEMORE (6/1) makes his second start for Baltas, who took him for $40K two back and then protected him to win a starter-allowance in wire fashion at Del Mar. His speed will come in handy from this outside post, but he’s not a need-the-lead type, so Van Dyke will have options. Prat sticks with the rail horse, unfortunately, and this guy has had a few tries at this level to no avail—but those races were for a different trainer. GRADE: B.

    LEG 4 (R8):
    Today’s proceedings end with a low-level $20K maiden-claimer contested at 8.5-furlongs on the main track. There are several stretch-out sprinters in here, so there should be a decent early clip.
    #1 ROYAL REBEL (15/1) is a one-paced grinder who can be used in your Super High-5, but he’s 0-for-20, having shown no real win to win. GRADE: X.
    #2 GAME OF ROANS (20/1) has been double-digits in all three of his starts at this level, and he’s run to those odds. Much more is needed today. GRADE: X.
    #3 OBSCURE BREW (8/1) comes off a 483-day layoff after failing to raise a gallop against Cal-bred MSWs when he was trained by Marty Jones. Powell takes over duties now, and he’s solid with new acquisitions and these types of comebackers. Still, he’ll need to be fit and ready for this one. GRADE: B.
    #4 ARMED WALL (15/1) debuts for Hofmans, who can have them ready to roll at first-asking. He can also get them to win going long for the first time, so this firster isn’t impossible here against such a weak group—but this is no easy task. GRADE: C.
    #5 ELEVATE (3/1) was 23/1 last time when dropping to this level for the first time after two horrendous races against tougher—but he showed he could run a little bit, finishing a good second despite a troubled start. He’s obvious. GRADE: B.
    #6 LAW BREAKER (6/1) was 51/1 in his debut, checking in fifth going 5.5-furlongs at Del Mar. He’s eligible for normal second-out improvement, but will that be good enough? GRADE: C.
    #7 JUNE TWO FOUR (6/1) attended the pace but was outfinished by the top two in the lane. He was 5/2 in that Los Al race after just being 17/1 at Del Mar, where he finished fifth while sprinting. He’ll need to move forward off that Los Al performance. GRADE: X.
    #8 ACTIVATED (12/1) dropped to this level for the first time last time and got going too late in a 7-furlong event at Del Mar. Seemingly he can improve off that while going two turns today, but improve he must. GRADE: X.
    #9 SEVERIN (50/1) has been beaten double-digits in all six of his starts, so a total form-reversal will be needed today. GRADE: X.
    #10 IRONIC RON (12/1) was 63/1 last time while dropping in from the MSW ranks, so no one cared that he was getting class-relief. He ran a respectable fifth after a slow start, grinding away through the lane, looking like a horse who would appreciate more ground at this low level. Gallagher adds the blinks to get this guy involved early. GRADE: B.
    #11 BANK WALKER (2/1) ran third at this level two back while sprinting at Del Mar. Then a tough trip from the rail derailed his chances against tougher $40K foes at Los Al. He has a two-turn MSW race from 2017 that would destroy this field, so if Miller can get him to fire today, he will prove very tough—but Elliott will have to work out the right trip from a very difficult post. GRADE: A.
    Comment
    • Getch13
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 07-13-18
      • 6941

      #3
      RACE 1
      Noble Nebraskan (#4) (3-1) debuted at Saratoga on September 1 for trainer George Weaver. The $110,000 Keeneland September 2017 purchase for Susan and Jim Hill was very green in the paddock before his initial start, off a bit slowly from the gate and ran against the flow, but still finished well to earn third.
      The juvenile son of Noble Mission has been given over a month off and returns to make his second start after a trio of solid works at Saratoga. In a race where none of the first-time starters get my juices flowing, and the others with experience did little to impress in their previous tries, I like his chances to get to the wire first.
      I will single Noble Nebraskan in the early Pick 5 and key on top of vertical wagers over Just Kitten You (#6) (10-1), Pico Entry (#7)(8-1), Life Mission (#9) (5-2) and Temple (#12) (15-1).

      1st:
      7
      Pico Entry $32.00 $14.40 $9.00
      2nd:
      12
      Temple $18.00 $10.60
      3rd:
      4
      Noble Nebraskan $4.00
      4th:
      9
      Life Mission
      5th:
      1
      A. K. Safari
      • $1.00 EXACTA 7-12 $266.20
      • $0.50 TRIFECTA 7-12-4 $920.40
      • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 7-12-4-9 $520.07
      • - SUPERHIGHFIVE CarryOver $563.60

      Comment
      • Getch13
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 07-13-18
        • 6941

        #4
        RACE 3
        Saracosa (#7) (9-2) saved ground early in her last start at legendary Churchill Downs under regular rider Corey Lanerie and appeared poised to earn her second lifetime score when they turned for home, but she encountered traffic in the stretch and never had a fair shake. The sophomore daughter of Bernardini cuts back a sixteenth of a mile and returns to a surface where she finished third in her debut back in late April.
        The Brendan Walsh trainee takes on deserving 8-5 morning-line favorite Virginia Key (#4) who finished third when last seen in the Gazelle (G2) at Aqueduct, but that filly has been sidelined for several months and is likely to get over bet off the 99 BRIS Speed rating earned in New York.
        Saracosa should sit a perfect outside stalking trip. With a cleaner voyage than she got in Louisville, she has a big chance to spring the minor upset on Friday. At 7-2 or higher I will bet to win.

        1st:
        4
        Virginia Key $3.80 $3.00 $2.20
        2nd:
        1
        Aerial Assets $4.20 $2.80
        3rd:
        6
        Clever Serve $2.20
        4th:
        2
        Mo Justice
        5th:
        7
        Saracosa
        • $1.00 EXACTA 4-1 $7.30
        • $0.50 TRIFECTA 4-1-6 $9.40
        • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 4-1-6-2 $6.43
        • $1.00 SUPERHIGHFIVE 4-1-6-2-7 $256.80
        • $1.00 DAILY DOUBLE 7/4 $5.40
        • $0.50 PICK 3 3 OF 3 7/10/4 $16.55
        • $0.50 PICK 3 3 OF 3 7/7/4 $74.55


        Comment
        • Getch13
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 07-13-18
          • 6941

          #5
          RACE 9
          The first Grade 1 race of the meet is the $400,000 Alcibiades. The 1 1/16-mile contest for two-year-old fillies is a “Win & You’re In” event for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).
          The post-time favorite has not won this race since My Conquestadory in 2013 and I am willing to take a chance against this year’s likely chalk in Restless Rider (#3) (3-1) despite an extremely impressive victory two-back in the Debutante Stakes at Churchill Downs.
          In that initial try against winners, the young filly was forced to check and lost a ton of momentum during the middle stages of the six-furlong dash, but overcame the trouble and won by 11 lengths in the end. The two-year-old daughter of Distorted Humor is certainly capable of getting to the wire first, but this field is too deep to take a short price.
          Instead I will lean on Into Trouble (#6) (15-1). The $180,000 Keeneland September 2017 purchase has done nothing wrong so far for trainer Ben Colebrook and enters her first graded try a perfect two-for-two. I specifically like the fact she has shown versatility winning her debut at Ellis Park from just off the early pace on August 11 and then overcame a slow start to upset a field of eight the Arlington-Washington Lassie on September 8. She should have no issues getting the route of ground and offers solid value at anything near her 15-1 morning-line price.
          I will bet the juvenile daughter of Into Mischief to win and play her in Daily Doubles starting in RACE 8, the $250,000 Phoenix (G2), with Promises Fulfilled (#1) (8-5) and Limousine Liberal (#4) (2-1).

          1st:
          3
          Restless Rider $4.60 $3.20 $2.80
          2nd:
          1
          Reflect $9.40 $6.00
          3rd:
          2
          Meadow Dance $6.20
          4th:
          133
          Chocolate Kisses
          5th:
          7
          Boujie Girl
          • $1.00 EXACTA 3-1 $16.60
          • $0.50 TRIFECTA 3-1-2 $67.35
          • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 3-1-2-13 $168.92
          • - SUPERHIGHFIVE CarryOver $5,101.09
          • $1.00 DAILY DOUBLE 1/3 $3.80
          • $0.50 PICK 3 3 OF 3 1/1/3 $37.80

          Comment
          • Getch13
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 07-13-18
            • 6941

            #6
            LEG 1 (R5):
            The first of two turf races—a $32K claiming event for older horses going a mile on the lawn—kicks off today’s Late Pick 4. The rails are at 20-feet, and there are a bunch of tactically inclined runners, so a few of these should be attending the pace, keeping things honest.
            #1 LEWIS VALE (12/1) has been very consistent since coming to California, but his best work has come against lesser competition, and it looks like the wheels fell off last time when he stalked the pace before weakening going 9-furlongs at Del Mar. In his defense, the Del Mar course was tricky this summer, so maybe he just hated it, since his try in a starter-handicap here wasn’t so bad. He’ll get the right stalking trip, but he’ll need to show he can win at this level. GRADE: X.
            #2 POINT PIPER (4/1), the first Hollendorfer trainee, is an old class horse who hasn’t been able to beat similar claimers while racing on dirt. He’s run respectably, but it looks like he’s lost the will to win. That said, the Dorf shakes things up by taking off the blinkers and putting him on turf, a surface upon which he hasn’t run in a very long time. He’s a cool horse, but he’s 8-years-old and has clearly lost a step. GRADE: C.
            #3 CIMPL MAN (7/2) is another cool horse who has run some very nice races, including a decent second last time against similar foes at Del Mar. It was a very good effort, bouncing back after a poor race at a lower level for a different trainer. Van Dyke hops aboard, which means this one must be doing okay off the brief freshening, thus making him a contender. GRADE: B.
            #4 SECRETO PRIMERO (4/1) has always looked like a horse with distance limitations, but that didn’t stop him from winning two route races at Del Mar against $25K claimers, so perhaps this 6-year-old has finally figured out how to relax and conserve energy for when it matters most. He’s another cool old boy who tries hard every time, but note that his recent try at this $32K level saw him finish a length and a half behind Cimpl Man. GRADE: C.
            #5 PLAY HARD TO GET (8/1) just lost to Secreto Primero at the $25K level, so this 7-year-old will need to do better today. There was a time when he was competitive against much tougher, so a form-reversal is not out of the question, but his success really all depends on the trip he gets, since his last win came loose on the lead, yet last time, he came from way off the pace. At least the 5-pound weight-break won’t hurt. GRADE: X.
            #6 SAXON LORD (8/1) invades from up north where he just finished a decent third at this level, going off at 5/2. He seems tractable, which will come in handy in this spot, so Pereira can give him a good tracking trip—then it remains to be seen how he’ll fare on this circuit, since his best work has come up north. GRADE: C.
            #7 ROYAL ALBERT HALL (GB) (12/1) has picked up a ton of checks, so I will never knock a runner who has finished second or third a combined 17 times in 36 career starts—but that kind of “consistency” has been his curse as well, running well but failing to cross the wire first. He couldn’t beat time-restricted $32K foes last time, so he’ll need to do better today, but his best races are certainly a fit—but he’ll need to summon the will to win. GRADE: C.
            #8 RAPID RED (10/1) was eligible for the ship-and-win bonus last time when he made his first SoCal start, putting in a decent late run to finish fourth behind a few of these. He was 16-lengths off the pace at one point, so the fact that he picked up a small check is pretty impressive. O’Neill took him out of that race, and he now brings this one back while adding blinkers and putting up Bejarano. He could turn the tables today with a better trip. GRADE: A.
            #9 THE BIG TRAIN (6/1) has a very solid stretch run, so expect him to be motoring late, especially since he’s running for this $32K tag for the first time—and we all know that Miller spots them where they can win. He also removes the hood, which is a deadly move for him. Prat takes over, and there should be a decent enough pace for this N1X dropper. GRADE: A.
            #10 UPPER ROOM (12/1), the second Hollendorfer runner, needed $25K/N2L beaten-claimers to notch his second career victory—and that came going a mile on dirt. Dorf claimed him from that race and protected him in a starter-allowance at Los Al, where he ran fifth on the dirt, checking in behind stablemate Point Piper. He’ll need a step forward today. GRADE: X.
            #11 FABOZZI (3/1) (AE) just ran third at the $50K level, so he should be pretty tough in here if he can work out the right trip from this tough post. Baze will be aggressive to get good position early, so this one will likely get a stalking journey—but that isn’t always the winning trip on turf. He seems classier than most of these, but it is a little disappointing to see this former N2X winner descending down the class ladder. GRADE: B.

            1st:
            3
            Cimpl Man $5.00 $3.20 $2.60
            2nd:
            8
            Rapid Red $4.40 $3.40
            3rd:
            9
            The Big Train $3.40
            4th:
            4
            Secreto Primero
            5th:
            5
            Play Hard To Get
            • $1.00 EXACTA 3-8 $12.60
            • $0.50 TRIFECTA 3-8-9 $22.65
            • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 3-8-9-4 $16.16
            • $1.00 SUPERHIGHFIVE 3-8-9-4-5 $157.00
            • $2.00 DAILY DOUBLE 2/3 $20.40
            • $0.50 PICK 3 3 OF 3 3/2/3 $11.20
            • $0.50 PICK 4 4 OF 4 3/3/2/3,11 $83.55
            • $0.50 PICK 5 5 OF 5 7/3/3/2/3,11 $181.85

            Last edited by Getch13; 10-05-18, 06:32 PM.
            Comment
            • Getch13
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 07-13-18
              • 6941

              #7
              LEG 2 (R6):
              Today’s second leg is a low-level $12,500/B event contested at a mile on the main track. Note that the condition is for N2L older horses, but any 3-year-old (who can have multiple wins) can run for the tag. Oddly enough, none of the sophomores are taking advantage of the multiple-win stipulation, making this basically just an N2L.
              #1 WISE CURLIN (4/1), the first Eurton entrant, is a bit feast-or-famine. He either runs a very competitive race or he’s nowhere to be found. He was no match for Haylord last time against $16K/N2L types, so he’ll need to do a lot better—but maybe he just hated the Del Mar track. He has plenty of speed, and his two races at this level over this track are good enough to put him in the frame. GRADE: B.
              #2 SPIRIT WORLD (30/1) is 1-for-17, and he’s been racing against much weaker foes. He exits sprint races, so expect Sanchez to gun hard and hope for the best, but his stamina will be surely called into question. GRADE: X.
              #3 HAYLORD (3/1) just ran second against $16K/N2L types at Del Mar, setting a fast pace before getting overtaken by the winner. It was a solid effort that he can build on, so he’s logical right back in this spot, especially if Quinonez can get him to relax a little bit while sitting right off the rail horse. GRADE: B.
              #4 SHOENHARDT (8/1) was 9/2 in his first SoCal start for Sadler, but he failed to raise a gallop against Haylord and other $16K/N2L foes. His next race at Los Al was a bit better, but he still could only manage fourth with a 5-pound weight-break, which he loses today. I always hate to toss a Sadler runner, but this 3-year-old needs marked improvement. GRADE: X.
              #5 PLATINUM EQUITY (7/5) is a 3-year-old who is winless on this circuit, but he’s been facing much tougher competition. I hate to see the precipitous drop from $32K to today’s lowly level, so that’s a big red flag, but if he’s even a shell of his former self, he should outclass these. GRADE: A.
              #6 INDIAN GULCH (6/1), the second Eurton runner, looked good breaking his maiden going a mile at Del Mar—tracking the pace before drawing off to win easily at 7/2. His next start wasn’t so good, however, but he was facing tougher starter foes, and he was off a bit slowly that day. The drop will certainly help, but he’s a 3-year-old who will need a step forward today. GRADE: B.
              #7 HARD ARCH (6/1) is a bit of a grinder who just ran fifth, losing to Haylord while getting a 5-pound weight-break. He’ll get that advantage again today, and it’s nice to see that his lone win came over this track, but he’ll need to be a bit sharper today to get the nod here. That said, he is making the third start of his form cycle, so he’s sitting on a peak effort. GRADE: B

              1st:
              1
              Wise Curlin $15.00 $6.40 $4.40
              2nd:
              3
              Haylord $4.60 $3.60
              3rd:
              6
              Indian Gulch $4.20
              4th:
              5
              Platinum Equity
              5th:
              7
              Hard Arch
              • $1.00 EXACTA 1-3 $32.00
              • $0.50 TRIFECTA 1-3-6 $88.70
              • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 1-3-6-5 $34.47
              • $1.00 SUPERHIGHFIVE 1-3-6-5-7 $677.40
              • $2.00 DAILY DOUBLE 3/1 $42.00
              • $0.50 PICK 3 3 OF 3 2/3/1 $68.40
              Comment
              • Getch13
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 07-13-18
                • 6941

                #8
                LEG 3 (R7):
                Today’s main event is a really neat $75K optional-claiming/N1X for 3-year-olds going 9-furlongs on the lawn with the rails at 20-feet. Like the other turf race, there are a few tactical runners in here, so assuming the jocks don’t try new tactics, the pace should be fair.
                #1 ANDESH (IRE) (4/1) attracts Prat after a dull run in the Del Mar Derby (G2) when he was sent off at 11/1. I liked him that day because he kept some decent company overseas (and had actually beaten River Boyne [Ire], who was favored in that race)—but he just never kicked on the way he did in his first U.S. start, where he ran on through the lane to finish fourth at this level and losing to Epical. He’s better than those starts, and he should be sitting on a peak effort, third start in the States—but D’Amato has been very chilly the last few months, so we’ll see if he can work some magic today. GRADE: A.
                #2 EXTRAORDINARY JERRY (12/1), the first O’Neill runner, was 20/1 at this level last time, and he was outkicked after a wide journey. He can move forward today, but note that his maiden win came loose on the lead against $100K maidens, so he will need a decent step forward. He does have tactical speed, so Roman should be aggressive here to give this one his best chance, since he’s not likely to outkick the classier stretch-runners in here. GRADE: X.
                #3 JIMMY CHILA (8/1), the second O’Neill charge, has speed, so he should be in the vanguard early. That speed helped him to victory three back when he beat age-restricted $40K claimers going a mile at Del Mar. Then he almost cleared this hurdle in his next start, losing by a nose. The wheels fell off last time with a more honest pace, so if things get a little hot up front, his stamina will be called into question. He’ll get the right trip, but he’ll have to fend off Shadow Sphinx, who beat him easily last time. GRADE: X.
                #4 MAGIC MUSKETIER (8/1) was a top pick for me last time because I thought he’d get a great set-up to show off his stretch run. Well, he did get a great set-up, but he was only good enough for third, losing to Shadow Sphinx. Hollendorfer is no fool—he knows this guy can’t win at this level on the square, so he legs up bug-boy Espinoza for the 5-pound weight-break. That should be good enough for a length, but he’ll need more than that to turn the tables on a few of these today. Expect him late. GRADE: C.
                #5 RISKY PROPOSITION (12/1) was 17/1 against a few of these last time, but he was outkicked and finished fourth. That was his first start for Spawr, who took him for $50K and has now protected him twice in a row. He’s eligible to improve, but he’ll need Shadow Sphinx to run a dud to get the measure of him. GRADE: X.
                #6 SHADOW SPHINX (4/1) uncorked a nice run last time to run second at this level after beating age-restricted $50K claimers two back. A repeat of his last race is good enough here—but keep in mind that the Del Mar turf course was strange this summer: some horses loved it; others hated it; so this guy will have to show he can bring his Del Mar game to the Great Race Place. GRADE: A.
                #7 MOVE OVER (GB) (7/2) has flashed ability in a bunch of his starts, but after two even runs against stakes foes, Sadler drops him into this AOC and runs him for the $75K tag. I don’t like that he’s for sale, but I’m guessing Sadler thinks no one will take him, so he’ll gamble here. His best makes him a contender, but note that all three of his wins have come going shorter. GRADE: B.
                #8 EPICAL (5/1) beat a very nice horse in his debut, but he’s been an in-and-outer ever since. His best race did come going today’s 9-furlongs, where he finished second at 31/1 at Del Mar in early summer. You can toss his poor run in the Del Mar Derby (G2), and I like the fact that he has a win over this course. He’s not impossible here. GRADE: B.
                #9 KYLEMORE (6/1) makes his second start for Baltas, who took him for $40K two back and then protected him to win a starter-allowance in wire fashion at Del Mar. His speed will come in handy from this outside post, but he’s not a need-the-lead type, so Van Dyke will have options. Prat sticks with the rail horse, unfortunately, and this guy has had a few tries at this level to no avail—but those races were for a different trainer. GRADE: B.

                1st:
                1
                Andesh (Ire) $6.00 $4.00 $2.80
                2nd:
                5
                Risky Proposition $15.00 $7.00
                3rd:
                8
                Epical $3.00
                4th:
                3
                Jimmy Chila
                5th:
                2
                Extrordinary Jerry
                • $1.00 EXACTA 1-5 $64.60
                • $0.50 TRIFECTA 1-5-8 $210.50
                • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 1-5-8-3 $177.67
                • - SUPERHIGHFIVE CarryOver $2,743.59
                • $2.00 DAILY DOUBLE 1/1 $71.40
                • $0.50 PICK 3 3 OF 3 3/1/1 $37.40


                Comment
                • Getch13
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 07-13-18
                  • 6941

                  #9
                  LEG 4 (R8):
                  Today’s proceedings end with a low-level $20K maiden-claimer contested at 8.5-furlongs on the main track. There are several stretch-out sprinters in here, so there should be a decent early clip.
                  #1 ROYAL REBEL (15/1) is a one-paced grinder who can be used in your Super High-5, but he’s 0-for-20, having shown no real win to win. GRADE: X.
                  #2 GAME OF ROANS (20/1) has been double-digits in all three of his starts at this level, and he’s run to those odds. Much more is needed today. GRADE: X.
                  #3 OBSCURE BREW (8/1) comes off a 483-day layoff after failing to raise a gallop against Cal-bred MSWs when he was trained by Marty Jones. Powell takes over duties now, and he’s solid with new acquisitions and these types of comebackers. Still, he’ll need to be fit and ready for this one. GRADE: B.
                  #4 ARMED WALL (15/1) debuts for Hofmans, who can have them ready to roll at first-asking. He can also get them to win going long for the first time, so this firster isn’t impossible here against such a weak group—but this is no easy task. GRADE: C.
                  #5 ELEVATE (3/1) was 23/1 last time when dropping to this level for the first time after two horrendous races against tougher—but he showed he could run a little bit, finishing a good second despite a troubled start. He’s obvious. GRADE: B.
                  #6 LAW BREAKER (6/1) was 51/1 in his debut, checking in fifth going 5.5-furlongs at Del Mar. He’s eligible for normal second-out improvement, but will that be good enough? GRADE: C.
                  #7 JUNE TWO FOUR (6/1) attended the pace but was outfinished by the top two in the lane. He was 5/2 in that Los Al race after just being 17/1 at Del Mar, where he finished fifth while sprinting. He’ll need to move forward off that Los Al performance. GRADE: X.
                  #8 ACTIVATED (12/1) dropped to this level for the first time last time and got going too late in a 7-furlong event at Del Mar. Seemingly he can improve off that while going two turns today, but improve he must. GRADE: X.
                  #9 SEVERIN (50/1) has been beaten double-digits in all six of his starts, so a total form-reversal will be needed today. GRADE: X.
                  #10 IRONIC RON (12/1) was 63/1 last time while dropping in from the MSW ranks, so no one cared that he was getting class-relief. He ran a respectable fifth after a slow start, grinding away through the lane, looking like a horse who would appreciate more ground at this low level. Gallagher adds the blinks to get this guy involved early. GRADE: B.
                  #11 BANK WALKER (2/1) ran third at this level two back while sprinting at Del Mar. Then a tough trip from the rail derailed his chances against tougher $40K foes at Los Al. He has a two-turn MSW race from 2017 that would destroy this field, so if Miller can get him to fire today, he will prove very tough—but Elliott will have to work out the right trip from a very difficult post. GRADE: A.

                  1st:
                  7
                  June Two Four $15.00 $7.00 $4.40
                  2nd:
                  5
                  Elevate $5.00 $3.40
                  3rd:
                  3
                  Obscure Brew $4.00
                  4th:
                  1
                  Royal Rebel
                  5th:
                  2
                  Game Of Roans
                  • $1.00 EXACTA 7-5 $42.60
                  • $0.50 TRIFECTA 7-5-3 $191.30
                  • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 7-5-3-1 $320.97
                  • - SUPERHIGHFIVE CarryOver $15,018.99
                  • $2.00 DAILY DOUBLE 1/7 $80.40
                  • $0.50 PICK 3 3 OF 3 1/1/7 $176.60
                  • $0.50 PICK 4 4 OF 4 3,11/1/1,9/7 $429.15
                  • $0.50 PICK 5 5 OF 5 2/3,11/1/1,9/7 $1,839.35
                  • $0.20 PICK 6 6 OF 6 3/2/3,11/1/1,9/7 $1,571.86
                  • - PICK 6 CarryOver $184,808.29

                  Comment
                  • Getch13
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 07-13-18
                    • 6941

                    #10
                    Belmont Picks & Plays for Saturday, October 6

                    by David Aragona

                    TOP PLAYS


                    RACE 2: MALTHAEL (#1)
                    Of those with experience, Hubba Bubba brings the best credentials to this affair. He handled the turf well in his initial try over the surface last time, while just getting passed by the talented Spirit Animal in the late stages. He’s going to be a much shorter price this time, but I don’t want to dismiss him since he fits the likely race flow very well. It’s difficult to predict how much pace there will be in the early stages, and he figures to be forwardly placed, if not on the lead, from this inside post position. That could be a significant advantage over a rail-biased Widener course. I’m using him prominently, but I prefer the runner posted just to his inside. Malthael’s turf debut last time out was a little disappointing. Better was expected out of him – at least by me – given how well he trained in the mornings and his excellent pedigree, as a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 winner A. P. Indian. I still think this son of Noble Mission has some ability, and I want to give him another chance. The pace never materialized in that Sep. 8 affair and he really had no chance to close in a race where few horses did any passing. Now he gets Lasix for his second turf try. Over the past five years, Christophe Clement is 16 for 68 (24 percent, $2.25 ROI) with maidens adding Lasix for the first time in turf races. I like his inside draw, and I would expect to see him show a bit more early speed this time. All of the other horses that I would consider are first time starters. North Dakota is obviously bred to be a nice horse as a half-brother to top sire War Front. I would also use Traveling and Tintoretto, who both may get ignored in the wagering.
                    Win: 1
                    Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5,9

                    RACE 5: BLUEGRASS JAMBOREE (#6)
                    Satisfy is likely to go off as the prohibitive favorite as she seeks her fourth win in five career starts while stepping up in class. This filly has looked great thus far, losing only to the Grade 1-placed Still There on a sloppy track. On the other hand, she’s yet to run so fast as to suggest that she is deserving of the support she is likely to receive. I acknowledge that she is the most likely winner based on consistency and upside, but I just think she’s going to offer bad value in this spot. I’m not too fond of the filly drawn directly to her outside. Big Birthday was visually impressive when winning her maiden last time, but that was a very weak field for the level, and I’m just not convinced that she possesses the talent to beat this group. Piedi Bianchi is more interesting. She actually ran fine in her return back in June, but it’s pretty weird that they ran her in the Alabama. She’s back in the right spot, but Todd Pletcher doesn’t have the best record of getting horses like this back on the right path. I’m taking a shot against these with Bluegrass Jamboree. She’s not the most reliable runner in this field, but I think she’s good enough to win on her best day, and she’s going to be an inviting price. She finished behind Piedi Bianchi two back, but that was also her return from a lengthy layoff, and she was actually right in contention until the late stages. I thought she took a big step forward last time against what was arguably a tougher field than this one. The slight cutback to six furlongs helps her, and she has historically run her best races at Belmont Park.
                    Win: 6
                    Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4,5

                    RACE 7: BLIND AMBITION (#2)
                    Disco Partner is likely to go off as the favorite once again despite disappointing at short prices in each of his last two starts. You can make excuses for both of those performances. A mile against top competition is just a bit too much for him to handle, and then he clearly didn’t handle the soft turf course in the Troy last time. The inner turf course should be somewhere between “good” and “yielding” on Saturday, and that’s still a minor concern. This horse has done his best work over very firm courses in the past and I’m somewhat concerned that we may not see the best version of him in this spot. Some give in the ground is less of a concern for his uncoupled stablemate Pure Sensation, who seems to run over anything. The biggest question for him is the stretch-out, since he does his best work at 5 furlongs. His last race would appear to indicate that he’s back in top form, so I think he’s dangerous here. However, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, as he is likely to receive early pressure from Pocket Change and Gidu. I’m taking a shot against this pair with Blind Ambition. This Todd Pletcher trainee has failed to find the winner’s circle since his impressive win in the Elusive Quality back in the spring. He was no match for a few of today’s rivals in the Jaipur in June, but that race was run over a very firm course. Blind Ambition is one of the few in this race that has proven his affinity for less than firm ground. He was arguably best in the Troy two back when he was the only horse to make a late run after loose on the lead winner Sandy’z Slew. I won’t hold his Kentucky Downs race against him, since that’s a tricky course to navigate. He figures to sit a great trip just in behind the dueling leaders and he’s going to be a much more inviting price than his two main rivals.
                    Win: 2
                    Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,6
                    Trifecta: 2 with 1,5 with 1,5,6,7,8

                    RACE 8: DREAMCALL (#1)
                    Wow Cat is going to be favored based more on reputation than on performance. That’s not to say that she hasn’t run well. She was pretty game to soldier on for second in the Shuvee off a long layoff this summer, and she was never going to be any match for Abel Tasman or Elate last time. On the other hand, it’s not as if she showed significant improvement in that Personal Ensign, so she’s yet to establish that she’s actually faster than her rivals. Do you really want to accept a short price on her given that she probably will need to improve again? Divine Miss Grey is the most talented alternative, but I worry about her getting the nine-furlong distance. This Danny Gargan trainee is incredibly versatile, and she’s been well managed this year. However, she is going to have to deal with other speeds in this race since Come Dancing and Farrell are basically committed to be sent to the front. If this turns into a demanding test of stamina, she’s in trouble. I have no problem with Verve’s Tale, who just barely missed behind Wow Cat two back in the Shuvee. I’m using her, but I actually prefer another closer who figures to go off at an even bigger price. Dreamcall made her New York debut in the Royal Delta last time and was uncompetitive against a pair of today’s rivals. However, I don’t think circumstances were in her favor that day. That sloppy track was favoring speed, and she clearly didn’t handle her first start over a wet surface. She’s going to get a fast track on Saturday, so I’m willing to forgive that last effort. Earlier this summer, she had been improving quickly, and she should appreciate this stretch-out to nine furlongs more than her rivals. A horse like her is supposed to be well suited to Belmont Park, and she should get a fair pace to close into.
                    Win/Place: 1
                    Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5,6
                    Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with 2,3,5,8

                    RACE 10: AURELIUS MAXIMUS (#9)
                    This Champagne drew a stellar field. The horse with the strongest black-type credentials is Call Paul, but he won a soft edition of the Sanford and is a dubious prospect to handle the stretch-out. I’m most interested in those coming off maiden wins, and that crew is led by Complexity. He was arguably the most impressive 2-year-old debut winner at Saratoga, as he drew off powerfully despite having to rush up to contest the pace after a poor start. He has to stretch his speed to a mile here, but he gets the pedigree to do so from his female family. A bigger concern is that the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. He figures to get early company from Trophy Chaser and Call Paul, who also are stretching out. He’s a formidable presence, but he’s also a short price in a competitive race. Endorsed and Code of Honor won their debuts on the same day at Saratoga. Both got very good trips, and Endorsed may have defeated the tougher field while running slightly faster. I think he’s a candidate to improve with added distance, but I don’t want to just discount the chances of Code of Honor. Shug McGaughey rarely has horses cranked to win first time out, and I think this one may have real talent. I’m using all of these runners, but my top pick is Aurelius Maximus. He’s yet to run quite as fast as his stablemate, but I loved the ease with which he won his maiden going this distance last month. He’s versatile enough to come from off the pace, and I get the sense that he still has room for improvement.
                    Win: 9
                    Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,3,4,8
                    Trifecta: 4,9 with 4,9 with 1,2,3,5,8

                    RACE 11: WANTAGH QUEEN (#3)
                    Recent maiden winner Something Joyful may go favored off her visually impressive score during the opening weekend of this meet. The effort was better than it appears, since she broke awkwardly and squeezed back at the start. Considering that she led most of the way in her only prior start, it was encouraging that she was able to change her running style so effectively. On the other hand, that was an unusually weak maiden field and the speed figure is merely mediocre. Beaux Arts is an intriguing alternative, since her early speed should be especially dangerous in this spot. The Widener turf course has been especially conducive to horses that can ride the rail, and she figures to secure the lead and cross over early. She does have a tendency to drift out late in her races, which is a concern, but she’s clearly talented enough to compete here if she shows up with her best effort. I’m using both of these fillies, but the one that I want to bet is Wantagh Queen. Trainer Mike Dini does an excellent job with the runners he brings to the NYRA circuit, and he appears to have this 7-year-old mare back in top form. She failed to get involved in a race at Belmont in July, but she rebounded with a very strong effort last time at Saratoga. That Aug. 30 race was dominated on the front end by Stonefactor, and it was run at a time when saving ground on the turf course was imperative while the rails were at 0 feet. Wantagh Queen raced 3-wide for most of her journey and was spun out into the 6-path coming into the stretch as she attempted to rally around horses. Considering that loss of momentum, she ran a remarkable race to get up for second. If she repeats that effort here, I think she’s going to be awfully tough to hold off. It also doesn’t hurt that she’s drawn an inside post position and gets another chance over a turf course with some give to it.
                    Win: 3
                    Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,7,9,10

                    Comment
                    • Getch13
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 07-13-18
                      • 6941

                      #11
                      Thoughts on the All-Stakes Pick 5 at Keeneland

                      By: Vance Hanson on October 6, 2018



                      Race 6 -- Woodford (G2)
                      #10 WILL CALL (4-1) tends to bounce back from uninspiring tries, which his last at Ellis Park definitely was. Still, poor showing over this course in April gives cause for pause as similar conditions may exist here. #11 ANGASTON (6-1) is only three, but gave Will Call plenty to handle as early as late June over at Churchill. Encountered interference in his lone disappointing effort since joining the Wiggins barn. Also meeting trouble recently was #6 ROCKET HEAT (8-1), who is capable of far better than what was seen last time. Early foot and ability to handle testing conditions a plus given how forward placement often helped on the course opening day.
                      Race 7 -- Thoroughbred Club of America (G2)
                      #3 MISS SUNSET (3-1) won the Raven Run (G2) and narrowly missed in the Madison (G1) in lone outings over this track, and only recent losses have been to a couple of the leading sprinting mares in the country. #9 CHALON (4-1) was second in both the TCA and Raven Run at three last year and has done little wrong in an abbreviated campaign this term. Enters fresh for dangerous barn. #5 AWESTRUCK (15-1) concedes something in the way of relative class, but loves this track and backing up to one turn should help a lot.
                      Race 8 -- First Lady (G1)
                      #3 QUIDURA (2-1) handles this track and wet conditions just fine, and is far from a need-the-lead type. Back to her very best form since joining the Chad Brown stable. Godolphin homebred #4 CROWN WALK (4-1) enters with solid French form, including a Group 3 score at Chantilly and a second in the Prix Rothschild (G1) at Deauville last time.

                      Race 9 -- Breeders' Futurity (G1)
                      #5 DREAM MAKER (5-1) looked a strong prospect winning first out by three lengths going five furlongs in June. Decent fifth in the Hopeful (G1) after two-month spell and bred to get a lot better around two turns. #3 FLUMINENSE (10-1), third to Dream Maker first out after a rough trip, came back to win handsomely next out and might not have been in preferred conditions trying turf at Woodbine last out. Adds blinkers and bred to get the extended trip. #1 SIGNALMAN (15-1) is another who debuted early in the season at Churchill. Battle tested winning Spa maiden narrowly and has same trainer-jockey combo as Alcibiades (G1) heroine Restless Rider. General Quarters colt showing fast breezes here.
                      Race 10 -- Shadwell Turf Mile (G1)
                      Chad Brown has a capable pair in #11 ALMANAAR (9-2) and the three-year-old #9 ANALYZE IT (9-2). The former, narrowly second in the Arlington Million (G1), hasn't run this short in awhile but appears one of the leading lights in the division despite just two starts this season. Analyze It gave up the ghost twice to Catholic Boy and to the outsider Carrick in three consecutive efforts. Can he avoid waiting on (older) rivals this time? New jock Johnny V might have the answers.
                      Here's the 50-cent ticket:6,10,11 with 3,5,9 with 3,4 with 1,3,5 with 9,11 = $54

                      Comment
                      • Getch13
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 07-13-18
                        • 6941

                        #12
                        Belmont

                        RACE 2: MALTHAEL (#1)

                        Of those with experience, Hubba Bubba brings the best credentials to this affair. He handled the turf well in his initial try over the surface last time, while just getting passed by the talented Spirit Animal in the late stages. He’s going to be a much shorter price this time, but I don’t want to dismiss him since he fits the likely race flow very well. It’s difficult to predict how much pace there will be in the early stages, and he figures to be forwardly placed, if not on the lead, from this inside post position. That could be a significant advantage over a rail-biased Widener course. I’m using him prominently, but I prefer the runner posted just to his inside. Malthael’s turf debut last time out was a little disappointing. Better was expected out of him – at least by me – given how well he trained in the mornings and his excellent pedigree, as a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 winner A. P. Indian. I still think this son of Noble Mission has some ability, and I want to give him another chance. The pace never materialized in that Sep. 8 affair and he really had no chance to close in a race where few horses did any passing. Now he gets Lasix for his second turf try. Over the past five years, Christophe Clement is 16 for 68 (24 percent, $2.25 ROI) with maidens adding Lasix for the first time in turf races. I like his inside draw, and I would expect to see him show a bit more early speed this time. All of the other horses that I would consider are first time starters. North Dakota is obviously bred to be a nice horse as a half-brother to top sire War Front. I would also use Traveling and Tintoretto, who both may get ignored in the wagering.
                        Win: 1
                        Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5,9

                        1st:
                        12
                        Empire Of War $8.00 $5.00 $3.80
                        2nd:
                        1
                        Malthael $6.40 $4.40
                        3rd:
                        8
                        Ian Glass $5.40
                        4th:
                        7
                        Justcallmenorman
                        • $1.00 QUINELLA 1-12 $14.20
                        • $1.00 EXACTA 12-1 $23.50
                        • $0.50 TRIFECTA 12-1-8 $159.25
                        • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 12-1-8-7 $138.15
                        • $1.00 DAILY DOUBLE 3/12 $253.50

                        Comment
                        • Getch13
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 07-13-18
                          • 6941

                          #13
                          Belmont

                          RACE 5: BLUEGRASS JAMBOREE (#6)

                          Satisfy is likely to go off as the prohibitive favorite as she seeks her fourth win in five career starts while stepping up in class. This filly has looked great thus far, losing only to the Grade 1-placed Still There on a sloppy track. On the other hand, she’s yet to run so fast as to suggest that she is deserving of the support she is likely to receive. I acknowledge that she is the most likely winner based on consistency and upside, but I just think she’s going to offer bad value in this spot. I’m not too fond of the filly drawn directly to her outside. Big Birthday was visually impressive when winning her maiden last time, but that was a very weak field for the level, and I’m just not convinced that she possesses the talent to beat this group. Piedi Bianchi is more interesting. She actually ran fine in her return back in June, but it’s pretty weird that they ran her in the Alabama. She’s back in the right spot, but Todd Pletcher doesn’t have the best record of getting horses like this back on the right path. I’m taking a shot against these with Bluegrass Jamboree. She’s not the most reliable runner in this field, but I think she’s good enough to win on her best day, and she’s going to be an inviting price. She finished behind Piedi Bianchi two back, but that was also her return from a lengthy layoff, and she was actually right in contention until the late stages. I thought she took a big step forward last time against what was arguably a tougher field than this one. The slight cutback to six furlongs helps her, and she has historically run her best races at Belmont Park.
                          Win: 6
                          Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4,5

                          1st:
                          2
                          Satisfy $4.10 $2.70 $2.20
                          2nd:
                          5
                          Piedi Bianchi $3.60 $2.70
                          3rd:
                          6
                          Bluegrass Jamboree $3.40
                          4th:
                          4
                          Wisconsin Night
                          • $1.00 EXACTA 2-5 $8.40
                          • $0.50 TRIFECTA 2-5-6 $12.62
                          • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 2-5-6-4 $7.80
                          • $1.00 DAILY DOUBLE 2/2 $6.10
                          • $1.00 PICK 3 3 OF 3 2/2/2 $43.25
                          • $0.50 PICK 4 4 OF 4 6,12/2/2/2 $205.50
                          • $0.50 PICK 5 5 OF 5 3/6,12/2/2/2 $33,634.00

                          Comment
                          • Getch13
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 07-13-18
                            • 6941

                            #14
                            Belmont

                            RACE 7: BLIND AMBITION (#2)

                            Disco Partner is likely to go off as the favorite once again despite disappointing at short prices in each of his last two starts. You can make excuses for both of those performances. A mile against top competition is just a bit too much for him to handle, and then he clearly didn’t handle the soft turf course in the Troy last time. The inner turf course should be somewhere between “good” and “yielding” on Saturday, and that’s still a minor concern. This horse has done his best work over very firm courses in the past and I’m somewhat concerned that we may not see the best version of him in this spot. Some give in the ground is less of a concern for his uncoupled stablemate Pure Sensation, who seems to run over anything. The biggest question for him is the stretch-out, since he does his best work at 5 furlongs. His last race would appear to indicate that he’s back in top form, so I think he’s dangerous here. However, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, as he is likely to receive early pressure from Pocket Change and Gidu. I’m taking a shot against this pair with Blind Ambition. This Todd Pletcher trainee has failed to find the winner’s circle since his impressive win in the Elusive Quality back in the spring. He was no match for a few of today’s rivals in the Jaipur in June, but that race was run over a very firm course. Blind Ambition is one of the few in this race that has proven his affinity for less than firm ground. He was arguably best in the Troy two back when he was the only horse to make a late run after loose on the lead winner Sandy’z Slew. I won’t hold his Kentucky Downs race against him, since that’s a tricky course to navigate. He figures to sit a great trip just in behind the dueling leaders and he’s going to be a much more inviting price than his two main rivals.
                            Win: 2
                            Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,6
                            Trifecta: 2 with 1,5 with 1,5,6,7,8

                            1st:
                            1
                            Disco Partner $4.20 $3.20 $2.30
                            2nd:
                            2
                            Blind Ambition $6.60 $3.70
                            3rd:
                            5
                            Pure Sensation $2.70
                            4th:
                            6
                            Proforma
                            • $1.00 EXACTA 1-2 $11.70
                            • $0.50 TRIFECTA 1-2-5 $14.75
                            • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 1-2-5-6 $7.55
                            • $1.00 DAILY DOUBLE 4/1 $10.30
                            • $1.00 PICK 3 3 OF 3 2/4/1 $24.50

                            Comment
                            • Getch13
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 07-13-18
                              • 6941

                              #15
                              Belmont
                              RACE 8: DREAMCALL (#1)

                              Wow Cat is going to be favored based more on reputation than on performance. That’s not to say that she hasn’t run well. She was pretty game to soldier on for second in the Shuvee off a long layoff this summer, and she was never going to be any match for Abel Tasman or Elate last time. On the other hand, it’s not as if she showed significant improvement in that Personal Ensign, so she’s yet to establish that she’s actually faster than her rivals. Do you really want to accept a short price on her given that she probably will need to improve again? Divine Miss Grey is the most talented alternative, but I worry about her getting the nine-furlong distance. This Danny Gargan trainee is incredibly versatile, and she’s been well managed this year. However, she is going to have to deal with other speeds in this race since Come Dancing and Farrell are basically committed to be sent to the front. If this turns into a demanding test of stamina, she’s in trouble. I have no problem with Verve’s Tale, who just barely missed behind Wow Cat two back in the Shuvee. I’m using her, but I actually prefer another closer who figures to go off at an even bigger price. Dreamcall made her New York debut in the Royal Delta last time and was uncompetitive against a pair of today’s rivals. However, I don’t think circumstances were in her favor that day. That sloppy track was favoring speed, and she clearly didn’t handle her first start over a wet surface. She’s going to get a fast track on Saturday, so I’m willing to forgive that last effort. Earlier this summer, she had been improving quickly, and she should appreciate this stretch-out to nine furlongs more than her rivals. A horse like her is supposed to be well suited to Belmont Park, and she should get a fair pace to close into.
                              Win/Place: 1
                              Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5,6
                              Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with 2,3,5,8

                              1st:
                              6
                              Wow Cat (Chi) $4.60 $2.80 $2.30
                              2nd:
                              3
                              Divine Miss Grey $4.00 $3.00
                              3rd:
                              5
                              Verve's Tale $2.90
                              4th:
                              2
                              Teresa Z
                              • $1.00 EXACTA 6-3 $9.50
                              • $0.50 TRIFECTA 6-3-5 $16.87
                              • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 6-3-5-2 $13.82
                              • $1.00 DAILY DOUBLE 1/6 $6.20
                              • $1.00 PICK 3 3 OF 3 4/1/6 $32.50
                              Comment
                              • Getch13
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 07-13-18
                                • 6941

                                #16
                                Keeneland

                                Race 6 -- Woodford (G2)#10 WILL CALL (4-1) tends to bounce back from uninspiring tries, which his last at Ellis Park definitely was. Still, poor showing over this course in April gives cause for pause as similar conditions may exist here. #11 ANGASTON (6-1) is only three, but gave Will Call plenty to handle as early as late June over at Churchill. Encountered interference in his lone disappointing effort since joining the Wiggins barn. Also meeting trouble recently was #6 ROCKET HEAT (8-1), who is capable of far better than what was seen last time. Early foot and ability to handle testing conditions a plus given how forward placement often helped on the course opening day.

                                1st:
                                2
                                Bucchero $8.40 $4.40 $3.20
                                2nd:
                                10
                                Will Call $6.20 $3.80
                                3rd:
                                4
                                Extravagant Kid $4.00
                                4th:
                                111
                                Angaston
                                5th:
                                7
                                Win Lion Win
                                • $1.00 EXACTA 2-10 $29.30
                                • $0.50 TRIFECTA 2-10-4 $61.80
                                • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 2-10-4-11 $102.48
                                • - SUPERHIGHFIVE CarryOver $3,466.06
                                • $1.00 DAILY DOUBLE 3/2 $37.90
                                • $0.50 PICK 3 3 OF 3 5/3/2 $72.90


                                Comment
                                • Getch13
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 07-13-18
                                  • 6941

                                  #17
                                  Keeneland

                                  Race 7 -- Thoroughbred Club of America (G2)#3 MISS SUNSET (3-1) won the Raven Run (G2) and narrowly missed in the Madison (G1) in lone outings over this track, and only recent losses have been to a couple of the leading sprinting mares in the country. #9 CHALON (4-1) was second in both the TCA and Raven Run at three last year and has done little wrong in an abbreviated campaign this term. Enters fresh for dangerous barn. #5 AWESTRUCK (15-1) concedes something in the way of relative class, but loves this track and backing up to one turn should help a lot.

                                  1st:
                                  7
                                  Golden Mischief $11.00 $6.00 $3.60
                                  2nd:
                                  9
                                  Chalon $5.40 $4.00
                                  3rd:
                                  4
                                  Vertical Oak $4.80
                                  4th:
                                  3
                                  Miss Sunset
                                  5th:
                                  6
                                  Happy Like A Fool
                                  • $1.00 EXACTA 7-9 $31.60
                                  • $0.50 TRIFECTA 7-9-4 $87.20
                                  • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 7-9-4-3 $45.73
                                  • $1.00 SUPERHIGHFIVE 7-9-4-3-6 $1,169.90
                                  • $1.00 DAILY DOUBLE 2/7 $21.10
                                  • $0.50 PICK 3 3 OF 3 3/2/7 $114.40


                                  Comment
                                  • Getch13
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 07-13-18
                                    • 6941

                                    #18
                                    Keeneland

                                    Race 8 -- First Lady (G1)
                                    #3 QUIDURA (2-1) handles this track and wet conditions just fine, and is far from a need-the-lead type. Back to her very best form since joining the Chad Brown stable. Godolphin homebred #4 CROWN WALK (4-1) enters with solid French form, including a Group 3 score at Chantilly and a second in the Prix Rothschild (G1) at Deauville last time.

                                    1st:
                                    2
                                    A Raving Beauty (Ger) $8.40 $4.80 $3.60
                                    2nd:
                                    7
                                    Dona Bruja (Arg) $11.40 $7.40
                                    3rd:
                                    5
                                    Indian Blessing (Gb) $8.80
                                    4th:
                                    4
                                    Crown Walk (Gb)
                                    5th:
                                    8
                                    Valadorna
                                    • $1.00 EXACTA 2-7 $50.00
                                    • $0.50 TRIFECTA 2-7-5 $214.90
                                    • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 2-7-5-4 $288.00
                                    • - SUPERHIGHFIVE CarryOver $2,210.43
                                    • $1.00 DAILY DOUBLE 7/2 $25.50
                                    • $0.50 PICK 3 3 OF 3 2/7/2 $66.70


                                    Comment
                                    • Getch13
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 07-13-18
                                      • 6941

                                      #19
                                      Keeneland

                                      Race 9 -- Breeders' Futurity (G1)#5 DREAM MAKER (5-1) looked a strong prospect winning first out by three lengths going five furlongs in June. Decent fifth in the Hopeful (G1) after two-month spell and bred to get a lot better around two turns. #3 FLUMINENSE (10-1), third to Dream Maker first out after a rough trip, came back to win handsomely next out and might not have been in preferred conditions trying turf at Woodbine last out. Adds blinkers and bred to get the extended trip. #1 SIGNALMAN (15-1) is another who debuted early in the season at Churchill. Battle tested winning Spa maiden narrowly and has same trainer-jockey combo as Alcibiades (G1) heroine Restless Rider. General Quarters colt showing fast breezes here.

                                      1st:
                                      7
                                      Knicks Go $142.00 $50.40 $18.00
                                      2nd:
                                      1
                                      Signalman $12.60 $7.20
                                      3rd:
                                      144
                                      Standard Deviation $4.40
                                      4th:
                                      2
                                      Sombeyay
                                      5th:
                                      12
                                      Derby Date
                                      • $1.00 EXACTA 7-1 $688.90
                                      • $0.50 TRIFECTA 7-1-14 $2,658.20
                                      • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 7-1-14-2 $2,764.82
                                      • - SUPERHIGHFIVE CarryOver $4,010.02
                                      • $1.00 DAILY DOUBLE 2/7 $413.70
                                      • $0.50 PICK 3 3 OF 3 7/2/7 $847.35


                                      Comment
                                      • Getch13
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 07-13-18
                                        • 6941

                                        #20
                                        Belmont

                                        RACE 10: AURELIUS MAXIMUS (#9)

                                        This Champagne drew a stellar field. The horse with the strongest black-type credentials is Call Paul, but he won a soft edition of the Sanford and is a dubious prospect to handle the stretch-out. I’m most interested in those coming off maiden wins, and that crew is led by Complexity. He was arguably the most impressive 2-year-old debut winner at Saratoga, as he drew off powerfully despite having to rush up to contest the pace after a poor start. He has to stretch his speed to a mile here, but he gets the pedigree to do so from his female family. A bigger concern is that the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. He figures to get early company from Trophy Chaser and Call Paul, who also are stretching out. He’s a formidable presence, but he’s also a short price in a competitive race. Endorsed and Code of Honor won their debuts on the same day at Saratoga. Both got very good trips, and Endorsed may have defeated the tougher field while running slightly faster. I think he’s a candidate to improve with added distance, but I don’t want to just discount the chances of Code of Honor. Shug McGaughey rarely has horses cranked to win first time out, and I think this one may have real talent. I’m using all of these runners, but my top pick is Aurelius Maximus. He’s yet to run quite as fast as his stablemate, but I loved the ease with which he won his maiden going this distance last month. He’s versatile enough to come from off the pace, and I get the sense that he still has room for improvement.
                                        Win: 9
                                        Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,3,4,8
                                        Trifecta: 4,9 with 4,9 with 1,2,3,5,8


                                        1st:
                                        4
                                        Complexity $7.00 $4.40 $3.50
                                        2nd:
                                        8
                                        Code Of Honor $13.20 $8.10
                                        3rd:
                                        5
                                        Call Paul $5.30
                                        4th:
                                        9
                                        Aurelius Maximus
                                        • $1.00 EXACTA 4-8 $42.00
                                        • $0.50 TRIFECTA 4-8-5 $122.12
                                        • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 4-8-5-9 $104.80
                                        • $1.00 DAILY DOUBLE 1/4 $48.25
                                        • $1.00 GRAND SLAM 4 OF 4 1,2,3,4,5/3,5,6/1,2,7/4 $80.00
                                        • $1.00 PICK 3 3 OF 3 6/1/4 $104.75
                                        Comment
                                        • Getch13
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 07-13-18
                                          • 6941

                                          #21
                                          Keeneland

                                          Race 10 -- Shadwell Turf Mile (G1)Chad Brown has a capable pair in #11 ALMANAAR (9-2) and the three-year-old #9 ANALYZE IT (9-2). The former, narrowly second in the Arlington Million (G1), hasn't run this short in awhile but appears one of the leading lights in the division despite just two starts this season. Analyze It gave up the ghost twice to Catholic Boy and to the outsider Carrick in three consecutive efforts. Can he avoid waiting on (older) rivals this time? New jock Johnny V might have the answers.Here's the 50-cent ticket:6,10,11 with 3,5,9 with 3,4 with 1,3,5 with 9,11 = $54

                                          1st:
                                          1
                                          Next Shares $48.80 $22.20 $13.00
                                          2nd:
                                          3
                                          Great Wide Open (Ire) $58.60 $26.60
                                          3rd:
                                          7
                                          Qurbaan $7.40
                                          4th:
                                          9
                                          Analyze It
                                          5th:
                                          13
                                          Big Score
                                          • $1.00 EXACTA 1-3 $984.10
                                          • $0.50 TRIFECTA 1-3-7 $3,878.00
                                          • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 1-3-7-9 $12,284.02
                                          • - SUPERHIGHFIVE CarryOver $7,026.62
                                          • $1.00 DAILY DOUBLE 7/1 $1,477.30
                                          • $1.00 DAILY DOUBLE 7/2 $92.50
                                          • $0.50 PICK 3 3 OF 3 2/7/2 $111.35
                                          • $0.50 PICK 3 3 OF 3 2/7/1 $2,230.10
                                          • $0.50 PICK 4 4 OF 4 7/2/7/1 $19,350.15
                                          • $0.50 PICK 5 5 OF 5 2,5/7/2/7/1 $131,533.65
                                          • $0.50 PICK 5 4 OF 5 2,5/7/2/7/1 $439.10
                                          • $1.00 PICK 6 4 OF 6 3/2,5/7/2/7/1 $122.70
                                          • - PICK 6 CarryOver $20,280.37


                                          Comment
                                          • Getch13
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 07-13-18
                                            • 6941

                                            #22
                                            Belmont

                                            RACE 11: WANTAGH QUEEN (#3)

                                            Recent maiden winner Something Joyful may go favored off her visually impressive score during the opening weekend of this meet. The effort was better than it appears, since she broke awkwardly and squeezed back at the start. Considering that she led most of the way in her only prior start, it was encouraging that she was able to change her running style so effectively. On the other hand, that was an unusually weak maiden field and the speed figure is merely mediocre. Beaux Arts is an intriguing alternative, since her early speed should be especially dangerous in this spot. The Widener turf course has been especially conducive to horses that can ride the rail, and she figures to secure the lead and cross over early. She does have a tendency to drift out late in her races, which is a concern, but she’s clearly talented enough to compete here if she shows up with her best effort. I’m using both of these fillies, but the one that I want to bet is Wantagh Queen. Trainer Mike Dini does an excellent job with the runners he brings to the NYRA circuit, and he appears to have this 7-year-old mare back in top form. She failed to get involved in a race at Belmont in July, but she rebounded with a very strong effort last time at Saratoga. That Aug. 30 race was dominated on the front end by Stonefactor, and it was run at a time when saving ground on the turf course was imperative while the rails were at 0 feet. Wantagh Queen raced 3-wide for most of her journey and was spun out into the 6-path coming into the stretch as she attempted to rally around horses. Considering that loss of momentum, she ran a remarkable race to get up for second. If she repeats that effort here, I think she’s going to be awfully tough to hold off. It also doesn’t hurt that she’s drawn an inside post position and gets another chance over a turf course with some give to it.
                                            Win: 3
                                            Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,7,9,10

                                            1st:
                                            1
                                            Saratoga Treasure $14.60 $7.10 $3.90
                                            2nd:
                                            100
                                            Spa Treatment $12.60 $6.90
                                            3rd:
                                            2
                                            Hollywood Cat $3.70
                                            4th:
                                            4
                                            Truly Courageous
                                            • $1.00 EXACTA 1-10 $67.25
                                            • $0.50 TRIFECTA 1-10-2 $139.00
                                            • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 1-10-2-4 $422.25
                                            • $1.00 DAILY DOUBLE 4/1 $25.50
                                            • $1.00 PICK 3 3 OF 3 1/4/1 $326.00
                                            • $0.50 PICK 4 4 OF 4 6/1/4/1 $407.50
                                            • $2.00 PICK 6 5 OF 6 4,13,14,15,16/1,3,4/6/1/4/1 $133.50
                                            • $2.00 PICK 6 6 OF 6 4,13,14,15,16/1,3,4/6/1/4/1 $8,213.00

                                            Comment
                                            • Getch13
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 07-13-18
                                              • 6941

                                              #23
                                              Belmont Picks & Plays for Monday, October 8

                                              by David Aragona


                                              RACE 4: GENTLE ANNIE (#8)
                                              This race features the rematch of Zecha and Tequila Sunday, who finished a head apart when they last met on Sep. 19. Zecha arguably ran the better race that day, as she set a contested pace and repelled multiple challenges before just succumbing to a closer in the final strides. Tequila Sunday looked like a winner turning for home, but she did her usual act, and just hung in the final eighth of a mile. Perhaps the addition of blinkers will help to focus her, but I finally have to divorce myself from this filly. Zecha is the most likely winner, but she’s going to be a short price this time, and I think she faces some legitimate rivals. One of those is Big Expense, but I worry about the 4-month layoff into this race. I’m instead going to take a shot with Gentle Annie. At first glance, she looks inferior to the aforementioned runners, but I think there’s a strong case to be made for this filly. She ran a couple of competitive speed figures back in the early summer behind superior rivals like Shanghai Glory and Reata’s Reward. I can excuse her sloppy track effort on July 27, and her two most recent efforts are actually decent. She was hindered by a wide trip on Aug. 20 where she closed well to nearly get up for third. Then last time she ran a race that could certainly beat this field. Seven furlongs is probably too far for her, yet she hung in gamely to only lose to Thirsty Gal by a couple of lengths, and that filly would almost certainly be favored in this race.
                                              Win: 8
                                              Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,6,7

                                              RACE 5: PERFECT KIND (#4)
                                              I’ve been a fan of Perfect Kind, and I think this filly finds herself in an ideal situation today. She got a fast pace to close into in her debut at Saratoga, but she dropped far back and was making an impressive late rally through the lane despite appearing hopelessly beaten at the top of the stretch. She showed plenty of ability on that occasion and was justifiably made a heavy favorite in her second start at Kentucky Downs. While it was disappointing that she lost, I thought she ran well within the context of that race, as Jose Ortiz may have sent her for home a bit too soon. She opened up a large lead with a quarter-mile to go and just got leg weary in the final furlong. I think she’s going to benefit from that race. Furthermore, she should be able to work out an ideal trip setting the pace over a course that has been strongly favoring inside runners. Chad Brown once again has a pair of entrants in this second division of the earlier maiden race. Joe Allen’s homebred Peaceful Feeling makes her debut after shipping up from Monmouth, and she is certainly bred to have turf ability. Her dam was a turf-stakes winner in France who is a half-sister to Danceland, who is stakes-placed on turf for these same connections. I wouldn’t be surprised if she has some ability, but I actually prefer her more-experienced stablemate. Multi Strategy was meant for turf in her debut and didn’t run that badly when it got rained off. She got onto the surface for which she was intended last time, and I think she ran much better than her running line suggests. That race got a very slow speed figure, but I’m somewhat skeptical that the race was as poor as that number suggests. Multi Strategy appeared to be struggling with the conditions around the far turn and into the stretch, looking like she was going to be uncompetitive. However, once Tyler Gaffalione really set her down in the final three-sixteenths of a mile, she came with a strong rally and was moving best of all late. I think she will appreciate a firmer course on Monday, and I believe she’s the biggest threat to my top selection.
                                              Win: 4
                                              Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,6,8,9

                                              RACE 8: PEGASUS RED (#1)
                                              Perhaps I’m making this race too complicated by picking against Charming Indy, but something about this drop in class just doesn’t sit well with me. This gelding has been competitive against tougher company very recently and was still capable of running speed figures that would make him a major player at the $25,000 level, or in protected spots at Finger Lakes, where Chris Englehart runs many of his cheaper horses. So why are they suddenly trying to pass him off to another barn for $12,500? He may win if he runs his typical race, but I’m a little skeptical. Looking beyond him, this race is wide open, and many of the other short prices don’t appeal to me. Proud Zip’s recent form is dubious, and Marriage Fever appeared to benefit from a wet track last time. Therefore, I want to get a bit more creative. I’m taking a shot with Pegasus Red on the stretch-out. This gelding went off form when initially claimed by A. C. Avila, but he’s since gotten things back on track since getting a freshening over the summer. He earned a competitive speed figure two back and then had no real chance last time when he actually closed decently in a tougher spot that was dominated by the front-runner. Some may be concerned about the stretch-out in distance, but I think you can make an argument that his one-mile races are actually some of his best performances. This horse has never been the type that loves to win races, but I think he’s going to fly under the radar in this spot and he’s a top contender if he steps forward at all on the stretch-out.
                                              Win: 1
                                              Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,6,8,9


                                              RACE 9: LONELY ROAD (#2)
                                              Entirely is the horse to beat as she cuts back in distance for Jonathan Thomas after winning a stakes at Gulfstream last time. The filly who finished just behind her that day, A Bit Special, is pretty talented, and Entirely ran well to hold her off after making a wide, premature move to the lead. This filly has been very impressive in both of her turf starts, and I think she is a very deserving favorite in this spot. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will get a fast pace to close into, but Javier Castellano is going to have to work out a trip for her. As I’ve said many times over the past several days, the turf courses are favoring horses with rail positions, so I wouldn’t want to see her making another wide sweep around the field. Beyond her, I think this race is wide-open. Monette is somewhat interesting as she makes her U.S. debut for Graham Motion, but her wide draw is a concern. Wesley Ward’s Egoli was impressive in her debut, but she gets a significant class test in this race. I’m using them, but I want to take a shot with longshot Lonely Road in her turf debut. I’ve been waiting for this filly to switch surfaces ever since she was unveiled this spring. She won a weak maiden race at Belmont two back, at least confirming that she has some speed. Christophe Clement is getting ambitious for this grass debut, but she’s bred to love the ground since her dam was a pretty talented turf horse. David Cohen has done a great job of saving ground on the turf recently, so she figures to work out a good trip. Another filly that figures to go off at a big price that I want to throw into the mix is Questionoftheday. She's yet to run a particularly fast race on the dirt, but this daughter of The Factor is a half-sister to 5 turf winners, so she has a right to improve significantly with this surface switch.
                                              Win/Place: 2
                                              Exacta Box: 2,6,7
                                              Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,12



                                              Comment
                                              • Getch13
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 07-13-18
                                                • 6941

                                                #24
                                                Belmont

                                                RACE 4: GENTLE ANNIE (#8)

                                                This race features the rematch of Zecha and Tequila Sunday, who finished a head apart when they last met on Sep. 19. Zecha arguably ran the better race that day, as she set a contested pace and repelled multiple challenges before just succumbing to a closer in the final strides. Tequila Sunday looked like a winner turning for home, but she did her usual act, and just hung in the final eighth of a mile. Perhaps the addition of blinkers will help to focus her, but I finally have to divorce myself from this filly. Zecha is the most likely winner, but she’s going to be a short price this time, and I think she faces some legitimate rivals. One of those is Big Expense, but I worry about the 4-month layoff into this race. I’m instead going to take a shot with Gentle Annie. At first glance, she looks inferior to the aforementioned runners, but I think there’s a strong case to be made for this filly. She ran a couple of competitive speed figures back in the early summer behind superior rivals like Shanghai Glory and Reata’s Reward. I can excuse her sloppy track effort on July 27, and her two most recent efforts are actually decent. She was hindered by a wide trip on Aug. 20 where she closed well to nearly get up for third. Then last time she ran a race that could certainly beat this field. Seven furlongs is probably too far for her, yet she hung in gamely to only lose to Thirsty Gal by a couple of lengths, and that filly would almost certainly be favored in this race.
                                                Win: 8
                                                Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,6,7


                                                1st:
                                                8
                                                Gentle Annie $14.60 $5.70 $4.90
                                                2nd:
                                                6
                                                Zecha $3.60 $3.10
                                                3rd:
                                                4
                                                Ramblin' Ma'am $6.30
                                                4th:
                                                2
                                                Aly's All Out
                                                • $1.00 QUINELLA 6-8 $9.10
                                                • $1.00 EXACTA 8-6 $24.20
                                                • $0.50 TRIFECTA 8-6-4 $74.25
                                                • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 8-6-4-2 $89.65
                                                • $1.00 DAILY DOUBLE 4/8 $27.50
                                                • $1.00 PICK 3 3 OF 3 9/4/8 $102.50
                                                Comment
                                                • Getch13
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 07-13-18
                                                  • 6941

                                                  #25
                                                  Belmont

                                                  RACE 5: PERFECT KIND (#4)

                                                  I’ve been a fan of Perfect Kind, and I think this filly finds herself in an ideal situation today. She got a fast pace to close into in her debut at Saratoga, but she dropped far back and was making an impressive late rally through the lane despite appearing hopelessly beaten at the top of the stretch. She showed plenty of ability on that occasion and was justifiably made a heavy favorite in her second start at Kentucky Downs. While it was disappointing that she lost, I thought she ran well within the context of that race, as Jose Ortiz may have sent her for home a bit too soon. She opened up a large lead with a quarter-mile to go and just got leg weary in the final furlong. I think she’s going to benefit from that race. Furthermore, she should be able to work out an ideal trip setting the pace over a course that has been strongly favoring inside runners. Chad Brown once again has a pair of entrants in this second division of the earlier maiden race. Joe Allen’s homebred Peaceful Feeling makes her debut after shipping up from Monmouth, and she is certainly bred to have turf ability. Her dam was a turf-stakes winner in France who is a half-sister to Danceland, who is stakes-placed on turf for these same connections. I wouldn’t be surprised if she has some ability, but I actually prefer her more-experienced stablemate. Multi Strategy was meant for turf in her debut and didn’t run that badly when it got rained off. She got onto the surface for which she was intended last time, and I think she ran much better than her running line suggests. That race got a very slow speed figure, but I’m somewhat skeptical that the race was as poor as that number suggests. Multi Strategy appeared to be struggling with the conditions around the far turn and into the stretch, looking like she was going to be uncompetitive. However, once Tyler Gaffalione really set her down in the final three-sixteenths of a mile, she came with a strong rally and was moving best of all late. I think she will appreciate a firmer course on Monday, and I believe she’s the biggest threat to my top selection.
                                                  Win: 4
                                                  Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,6,8,9

                                                  1st:
                                                  9
                                                  Multi Strategy $9.60 $5.70 $3.90
                                                  2nd:
                                                  3
                                                  Lucky Lips $8.60 $5.50
                                                  3rd:
                                                  2
                                                  Blue Jean Kitten $4.20
                                                  4th:
                                                  7
                                                  Here Comes Jackie
                                                  • $1.00 EXACTA 9-3 $36.75
                                                  • $0.50 TRIFECTA 9-3-2 $139.25
                                                  • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 9-3-2-7 $181.00
                                                  • $1.00 DAILY DOUBLE 8/9 $39.75
                                                  • $1.00 PICK 3 3 OF 3 4/8/9 $188.25
                                                  • $0.50 PICK 4 4 OF 4 1,2,5,6,7,9/4/8/9 $167.50
                                                  • $0.50 PICK 5 5 OF 5 4/1,2,5,6,7,9/4/8/9 $460.25

                                                  Last edited by Getch13; 10-08-18, 03:45 PM.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Getch13
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 07-13-18
                                                    • 6941

                                                    #26
                                                    Santa Anita

                                                    LEG 1 (R7):
                                                    We kick things off with a $50K starter-allowance for fillies and mares going 6-furlongs on the main track—and while the top few look solid, this isn’t exactly the most exciting group.
                                                    #1 TIZ TOFFEE (6/5) was 3/5 at this level last time despite still being a maiden, yet she won impressively, beating winners while getting a five-pound weight break. She retains that advantage while racing right back at the same level—but now she’ll have to break from the rail while shortening up a little, which means Espinoza will have to hustle from the gate. GRADE: A.
                                                    #2 LEMON CRUSH (5/1) was 19/10 at this level last time at Los Al, and she lost by a neck while going 6.5-furlongs. She had the lead in the lane and was edged late, so seemingly the slight cutback today will help—but her races on this circuit have been a bit grindy, so we’ll see if she can pass some sharper foes. GRADE: C.
                                                    #3 MISS UNUSUAL (12/1) was 12/1 at this level three back in her first try versus winners, and she ran half a race down the hill. Her subsequent starts haven’t been much better, but she does make her first start for Machowsky, who saw fit to take her out of a $25K age-restricted claimer. Expect this sophomore to be pushing the early pace. GRADE: C.
                                                    #4 GYPSY BLU (8/1) was 16/1 at this level last time in her first try versus winners as well, and she failed to make an impact. She’ll have to do much better—and note that she’s a 4-year-old with only two career starts, so she’s had some physical issues to overcome to boot. That said, she got a “Razor”-sharp work from OptixWORKS. GRADE: B.
                                                    #5 SAUCE ON SIDE (5/2) was creeping toward Tiz Toffee last time when they squared off at this level at Del Mar. She ran out of room in that 6.5-furlong race, so she’ll need to be more engaged early while going shorter. She can turn the tables, but she will need a step forward to get the job done today. GRADE: B.
                                                    #6 D D’S LUTE (12/1) needed $20K maidens at Los Al to graduate, which she did in start number-twelve. That race came at 5-furlongs, so she’ll have to show she can stay an extra furlong today against much tougher runners. GRADE: C.
                                                    #7 SMITTEN KITTEN (6/1) broke her maiden back in 2017 against Cal-bred $50K maidens, looking good doing it over this track while going 5.5-furlongs. Spawr took her out of that race, but she hasn’t been seen since. Normally, I’d say that’s a bad thing—but Spawr is a master when it comes to the claim game, and I especially like when he brings them back up in class (and this gal is protected today). She should also get the right stalking trip. GRADE: A.

                                                    LEG 2 (R8):
                                                    Today’s second leg is the $100K Zuma Beach, a one-mile turf affair for 2-year-olds. The rails are at 20-feet, and there should be an honest pace. I thought this was a tough race to handicap with such little info to go on, as most of these have only raced a few times.
                                                    #1 RIJEKA (IRE) (4/1) looked terrific when breaking his maiden two back in his first U.S. start, but he wasn’t able to replicate that effort in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf, where he stalked the pace before weakening badly. Clearly, he’s better when he can sit off the pace and produce late, so perhaps new rider Franco—who is a terrific grass rider—can employ those tactics today? GRADE: B.
                                                    #2 SHIP OF THE LINE (6/1) invades from Ellis Park for O’Neill’s former assistant who struck out on his own several months ago. His charge is coming off a dominating maiden win, where he beat 11 other runners, including his coupled stablemate, in wire fashion. Surprisingly, those Ellis maiden races have produced some decent runners, so don’t let the “class” issue bother you too much. GRADE: B.
                                                    #3 MUCH BETTER (7/2) looked good breaking his maiden going 6.5-furlongs at Del Mar in his debut for Baffert. He was 4/5 that day and ran to those odds, but now Baffert tries him on turf, which is usually a last-resort move for the white-haired Hall of Famer. Clearly, there is a ton of ability here, but we’ll see if this guy can transfer his main-track form to the lawn (and while stretching out for the first time). GRADE: B.
                                                    #4 SPIN LIGHTNING (4/1) came from off the pace to break his maiden at first-asking for a trainer who doesn’t usually have them fully cranked. Because of that, he tried much tougher foes in the Futurity (G1), but he showed he wasn’t in that league. I like that Mullins now switches him to the turf, since he’s bred top and bottom to handle the lawn—and I like that he showed he could pass horses in his debut. GRADE: A.
                                                    #5 KING OF SPEED (4/1) lost to Rijeka (Ire) two back at the maiden level, launching a late bid to get the place as the 3/1 favorite—but he made amends last time when breaking his maiden in impressive fashion in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf, winning at 15/1. He’s logical if he gets the right pace set-up to flatter his stretch run. GRADE: B.
                                                    #6 TAKEO SQUARED (8/1) was 12/1 in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf, and he too came on for a late run, finishing third while in tight. Before that, he showed tactical speed beating Cal-bred MSWs to graduate, so he has a little versatility—but he will have to turn the tables on King of Speed today. GRADE: C.
                                                    #7 HONCHO (12/1) was 20/1 in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf, where he stalked the pace before getting outfinished by a few of these. He certainly has the look of one who will continue to improve with racing, but he will need a step forward today. That said, his trainer has been on fire lately, so a big step forward is certainly possible. GRADE: C.
                                                    #8 MORE ICE (6/1) stalked a very slow pace last time before kicking home to get up and win at 10/1, breaking his maiden with a 5-pound weight-break. He loses that advantage today against stakes foes, so we’ll see how he performs on the square and from this outside post. Note that two back King of Speed beat him fairly easily. GRADE: C.

                                                    LEG 3 (R9):
                                                    Today’s third leg doesn’t get easier: a $40K optional-claiming/N1X for older horses going 8.5-furlongs on the main track. There should be a quick pace in here, but it’s always a tricky proposition backing off-the-pace runners in dirt races in California!
                                                    #1 PADDOCK PICK (5/1) has tactical speed, so it will be interesting to see what Pereira does with this stretch-out sprinter who looks like he finally figured out how to relax last time when running third at this level in a 6-furlong dash at Del Mar. His one route try saw him make the running before weakening to finish fourth. He fits on figures, but the race shape isn’t the greatest for him. GRADE: B.
                                                    #2 CROATIAN (20/1), the first Baffert entrant, looks like the weaker of the two, but when has that mattered before, as the “other Baffert” wins its fair share of races? That said, this one has never really taken “Baffert” money, and he needed MSWs at Los Al to finally graduate, which he did last time while attending a slow pace. He needs to pick it up, but that work two back is pretty sharp. GRADE: C.
                                                    #3 LORD GUINNESS (8/1) is a 3-year-old who has shown he can sit off the pace and run on through the lane, a skill that should come in handy today with today’s anticipated quick pace. The 5-pound weight-break can’t hurt nor can the added ground today, since he was grinding away last time going a mile. He’ll need to run a little bit faster today, but that’s not impossible. GRADE: B.
                                                    #4 ITALIANO (12/1) has sprint speed, so he should be attending the pace, but then we’ll see how much stamina he shows, since he gave up the ghost pretty easily last time when facing age-restricted N1X types while going a mile on turf (and getting a 5-pound weight-break, which he loses today). Note that he beat age-restricted $50K claimers two back, so perhaps he’ll need a softer spot after this. GRADE: X.
                                                    #5 MASTER SINGER (15/1) has two wins to his credit, and that’s a positive since he’s facing N1X foes—but both of those wins came overseas while racing on synth and racing much farther. His first U.S. start saw him put in a mild late bid to split the field while racing on turf. He should be super-fit, but it remains to be seen how he handles the dirt today. GRADE: C.
                                                    #6 LONGDEN (GB) (4/1) will be the more fancied Baffert runner, but he took a while to break his maiden, so he’s no cinch in here, even though he did just miss at this level last time when facing age-restricted runners back in May. He’s been freshened since then, so we’ll see how he comes back to the races after training mostly at Los Al (before a pedestrian work over this track on September 30). GRADE: B.
                                                    #7 AIR STRIKE (3/1) made his first SoCal start a winning one, destroying MSWs at Del Mar as the 7/5 favorite. Can this 3-year-old move forward off that maiden-breaker in his first try versus winners? He’s never run a bad race, so why not? But it’s always a tough assignment to beat winners in your first try at the N1X level. GRADE: B.
                                                    #8 SHANE ZAIN (12/1) was thrown to the wolves off just an okay maiden-breaker at Oaklawn Park, which he won in forwardly placed fashion. Those subsequent races against tougher certainly took their toll, since O’Neill was more than happy to lose him for $50K last time when Baltas took the bait. Now he returns off a brief freshening, newly gelded and removing the blinkers. I like that Baltas is protecting him here, so perhaps he can get this one to fire a good one today—but it’s not like this 3-year-old was lighting the world on fire before he dropped in for a tag. GRADE: B.
                                                    #9 MAJOR CABBIE (6/1) wired maidens to graduate two back, and then he came from the clouds to run third in his first try at this level. I’m not sure what running style he’ll exhibit today, but it would behoove him to track the pace before running on through the lane. He’s a 3-year-old who can certainly continue to improve, but I do think he got favorable set-ups in each of his last two races, so I’m having a hard time figuring out his true ability today. GRADE: B.
                                                    #10 SHEER FLATTERY (9/2) has already won at this level (after many attempts), so he’s in for the tag. He’s rarely run a bad race over this track, so I’m willing to toss his last start against tougher at Del Mar over a track that some horses just hated, and he might have been one of them. I like that he’s versatile and proven at the level, but I’ve always thought he was best at a mile, so Conner will have to get the most out of him in here going 8.5-panels. GRADE: A.

                                                    LEG 4 (R10):
                                                    We close out the race week with another competitive race, this one a $40K maiden-claimer for fillies and mares going a mile on the lawn. These maiden-claimers on turf are always tricky because it’s tough to get a true class gauge since several of these types have been racing on dirt.
                                                    #1 SOLARIUM (10/1), the first Cassidy entrant, was 19/1 in her debut at this level while going 6.5-furlongs on dirt, and a brutal start cost her all chance. She did run on a bit late, so she’s eligible to improve today with a good start—but we’ll see if she takes to the turf. GRADE: C.
                                                    #2 GRECIAN FORT (50/1) is 0-for-10 and hasn’t really been competitive while racing on dirt. I’m not sure the move to the lawn is going to help. GRADE: X.
                                                    #3 SENSIBLE THOUGHTS (2/1) is super-obvious in here off a few decent races against tougher, including an okay fourth against $62.5K maidens two back while trying the lawn for the first time. She should be tough in here. GRADE: A.
                                                    #4 WEATHER MARKET (12/1) ran third against Cal-bred MSWs in her second career start when trying a mile on turf for the first time. It was a nice effort, but she clearly has some physical issues, which is why Gaines decided to run her for a tag a few times—including last time when she was offered for $20K. Pender took her and switches her back to turf. I’ve always said: Gaines doesn’t give anything away, but OptixWORKS seems to like the training pattern here. GRADE: C.
                                                    #5 EXES N OHS (10/1) was just claimed for $20K off Baffert, and that’s not usually a ringing endorsement. She was beaten double-digits in each of her dirt starts, so new trainer Greenman will look to shake things up by switching her to turf and taking off the blinkers. I’ll watch one here. GRADE: X.
                                                    #6 POINT TO POINT (6/1), the second Cassidy runner, was 22/1 in her debut against $62.5K maidens while going today’s distance on turf. She had an eventful journey, so don’t be so harsh on her poor finish. She can move forward today, especially with the class-relief and with that experience run under her belt. GRADE: B.
                                                    #7 CRACKLING BREAD (8/1) was taken off Cerin for $20K in her first SoCal start, so I’m skeptical about whether Periban can move her up, since I have to think Cerin had her fully cranked for the ship-and-win bonus at Del Mar. That said, she does have East Coast turf form that isn’t bad, so it’s nice to see Periban move her back to the lawn—but there’s a reason Cerin placed her at the $20K level. GRADE: X.
                                                    #8 TIZ GOLDILUX (5/1) hasn’t been able to string races together, and that’s something I never like to see. She’s also been racing down the hill, so maybe this is a leg-stretcher off a May layoff for a downhill race later on? She does drop from the $75K level, but there are plenty of question marks surrounding this 4-year-old. GRADE: C.
                                                    #9 CHALKY (IRE) (5/2) is a bit of a grinder who needs everything to go her way for the victory. She got a perfect set-up two back, but she lacked the necessary oomph to get the job done at Del Mar, losing to a classier horse. She gets slight class-relief today, so she’s obvious on that count alone, but she doesn’t exactly have the eye of the tiger, so I’m a bit wary about making her a top contender today. GRADE: B.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Getch13
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 07-13-18
                                                      • 6941

                                                      #27
                                                      Belmont

                                                      RACE 8: PEGASUS RED (#1)

                                                      Perhaps I’m making this race too complicated by picking against Charming Indy, but something about this drop in class just doesn’t sit well with me. This gelding has been competitive against tougher company very recently and was still capable of running speed figures that would make him a major player at the $25,000 level, or in protected spots at Finger Lakes, where Chris Englehart runs many of his cheaper horses. So why are they suddenly trying to pass him off to another barn for $12,500? He may win if he runs his typical race, but I’m a little skeptical. Looking beyond him, this race is wide open, and many of the other short prices don’t appeal to me. Proud Zip’s recent form is dubious, and Marriage Fever appeared to benefit from a wet track last time. Therefore, I want to get a bit more creative. I’m taking a shot with Pegasus Red on the stretch-out. This gelding went off form when initially claimed by A. C. Avila, but he’s since gotten things back on track since getting a freshening over the summer. He earned a competitive speed figure two back and then had no real chance last time when he actually closed decently in a tougher spot that was dominated by the front-runner. Some may be concerned about the stretch-out in distance, but I think you can make an argument that his one-mile races are actually some of his best performances. This horse has never been the type that loves to win races, but I think he’s going to fly under the radar in this spot and he’s a top contender if he steps forward at all on the stretch-out.
                                                      Win: 1
                                                      Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,6,8,9

                                                      1st:
                                                      9
                                                      Halloween Horror $17.60 $7.70 $5.80
                                                      2nd:
                                                      7
                                                      Proud Zip $7.60 $4.60
                                                      3rd:
                                                      8
                                                      Marriage Fever $4.50
                                                      4th:
                                                      3
                                                      Sparty Boy
                                                      • $1.00 EXACTA 9-7 $73.75
                                                      • $0.50 TRIFECTA 9-7-8 $140.75
                                                      • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 9-7-8-3 $107.95
                                                      • $1.00 DAILY DOUBLE 2/9 $50.25
                                                      • $1.00 PICK 3 3 OF 3 4/2/9 $184.50

                                                      Comment
                                                      • Getch13
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 07-13-18
                                                        • 6941

                                                        #28
                                                        Belmont

                                                        RACE 9: LONELY ROAD (#2)

                                                        Entirely is the horse to beat as she cuts back in distance for Jonathan Thomas after winning a stakes at Gulfstream last time. The filly who finished just behind her that day, A Bit Special, is pretty talented, and Entirely ran well to hold her off after making a wide, premature move to the lead. This filly has been very impressive in both of her turf starts, and I think she is a very deserving favorite in this spot. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will get a fast pace to close into, but Javier Castellano is going to have to work out a trip for her. As I’ve said many times over the past several days, the turf courses are favoring horses with rail positions, so I wouldn’t want to see her making another wide sweep around the field. Beyond her, I think this race is wide-open. Monette is somewhat interesting as she makes her U.S. debut for Graham Motion, but her wide draw is a concern. Wesley Ward’s Egoli was impressive in her debut, but she gets a significant class test in this race. I’m using them, but I want to take a shot with longshot Lonely Road in her turf debut. I’ve been waiting for this filly to switch surfaces ever since she was unveiled this spring. She won a weak maiden race at Belmont two back, at least confirming that she has some speed. Christophe Clement is getting ambitious for this grass debut, but she’s bred to love the ground since her dam was a pretty talented turf horse. David Cohen has done a great job of saving ground on the turf recently, so she figures to work out a good trip. Another filly that figures to go off at a big price that I want to throw into the mix is Questionoftheday. She's yet to run a particularly fast race on the dirt, but this daughter of The Factor is a half-sister to 5 turf winners, so she has a right to improve significantly with this surface switch.
                                                        Win/Place: 2
                                                        Exacta Box: 2,6,7
                                                        Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,12

                                                        1st:
                                                        2
                                                        Lonely Road $39.40 $14.60 $7.90
                                                        2nd:
                                                        12
                                                        Monette (Fr) $5.70 $3.40
                                                        3rd:
                                                        6
                                                        Entirely $2.60
                                                        4th:
                                                        11
                                                        Into The South
                                                        • $1.00 EXACTA 2-12 $115.00
                                                        • $0.50 TRIFECTA 2-12-6 $158.25
                                                        • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 2-12-6-11 $169.05
                                                        • $1.00 DAILY DOUBLE 9/2 $183.50
                                                        • $1.00 GRAND SLAM 4 OF 4 4,5,6/2,4,6,8/7,8,9/2 $163.00
                                                        • $1.00 PICK 3 3 OF 3 2/9/2 $822.00

                                                        Last edited by Getch13; 10-08-18, 05:17 PM.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Getch13
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 07-13-18
                                                          • 6941

                                                          #29
                                                          Santa Anita

                                                          LEG 1 (R7):
                                                          We kick things off with a $50K starter-allowance for fillies and mares going 6-furlongs on the main track—and while the top few look solid, this isn’t exactly the most exciting group.
                                                          #1 TIZ TOFFEE (6/5) was 3/5 at this level last time despite still being a maiden, yet she won impressively, beating winners while getting a five-pound weight break. She retains that advantage while racing right back at the same level—but now she’ll have to break from the rail while shortening up a little, which means Espinoza will have to hustle from the gate. GRADE: A.
                                                          #2 LEMON CRUSH (5/1) was 19/10 at this level last time at Los Al, and she lost by a neck while going 6.5-furlongs. She had the lead in the lane and was edged late, so seemingly the slight cutback today will help—but her races on this circuit have been a bit grindy, so we’ll see if she can pass some sharper foes. GRADE: C.
                                                          #3 MISS UNUSUAL (12/1) was 12/1 at this level three back in her first try versus winners, and she ran half a race down the hill. Her subsequent starts haven’t been much better, but she does make her first start for Machowsky, who saw fit to take her out of a $25K age-restricted claimer. Expect this sophomore to be pushing the early pace. GRADE: C.
                                                          #4 GYPSY BLU (8/1) was 16/1 at this level last time in her first try versus winners as well, and she failed to make an impact. She’ll have to do much better—and note that she’s a 4-year-old with only two career starts, so she’s had some physical issues to overcome to boot. That said, she got a “Razor”-sharp work from OptixWORKS. GRADE: B.
                                                          #5 SAUCE ON SIDE (5/2) was creeping toward Tiz Toffee last time when they squared off at this level at Del Mar. She ran out of room in that 6.5-furlong race, so she’ll need to be more engaged early while going shorter. She can turn the tables, but she will need a step forward to get the job done today. GRADE: B.
                                                          #6 D D’S LUTE (12/1) needed $20K maidens at Los Al to graduate, which she did in start number-twelve. That race came at 5-furlongs, so she’ll have to show she can stay an extra furlong today against much tougher runners. GRADE: C.
                                                          #7 SMITTEN KITTEN (6/1) broke her maiden back in 2017 against Cal-bred $50K maidens, looking good doing it over this track while going 5.5-furlongs. Spawr took her out of that race, but she hasn’t been seen since. Normally, I’d say that’s a bad thing—but Spawr is a master when it comes to the claim game, and I especially like when he brings them back up in class (and this gal is protected today). She should also get the right stalking trip. GRADE: A.

                                                          1st:
                                                          6
                                                          D D's Lute $44.40 $13.60 $6.80
                                                          2nd:
                                                          5
                                                          Sauce On Side $5.60 $3.20
                                                          3rd:
                                                          3
                                                          Miss Unusual $7.40
                                                          4th:
                                                          2
                                                          Lemon Crush
                                                          5th:
                                                          1
                                                          Tiz Toffee
                                                          • $1.00 EXACTA 6-5 $99.40
                                                          • $0.50 TRIFECTA 6-5-3 $338.20
                                                          • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 6-5-3-2 $268.80
                                                          • $1.00 SUPERHIGHFIVE 6-5-3-2-1 $3,761.60
                                                          • $2.00 DAILY DOUBLE 7/6 $79.00
                                                          • $0.50 PICK 3 3 OF 3 7/7/6 $1,357.80

                                                          Comment
                                                          • Getch13
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 07-13-18
                                                            • 6941

                                                            #30
                                                            Santa Anita

                                                            LEG 2 (R8):
                                                            Today’s second leg is the $100K Zuma Beach, a one-mile turf affair for 2-year-olds. The rails are at 20-feet, and there should be an honest pace. I thought this was a tough race to handicap with such little info to go on, as most of these have only raced a few times.
                                                            #1 RIJEKA (IRE) (4/1) looked terrific when breaking his maiden two back in his first U.S. start, but he wasn’t able to replicate that effort in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf, where he stalked the pace before weakening badly. Clearly, he’s better when he can sit off the pace and produce late, so perhaps new rider Franco—who is a terrific grass rider—can employ those tactics today? GRADE: B.
                                                            #2 SHIP OF THE LINE (6/1) invades from Ellis Park for O’Neill’s former assistant who struck out on his own several months ago. His charge is coming off a dominating maiden win, where he beat 11 other runners, including his coupled stablemate, in wire fashion. Surprisingly, those Ellis maiden races have produced some decent runners, so don’t let the “class” issue bother you too much. GRADE: B.
                                                            #3 MUCH BETTER (7/2) looked good breaking his maiden going 6.5-furlongs at Del Mar in his debut for Baffert. He was 4/5 that day and ran to those odds, but now Baffert tries him on turf, which is usually a last-resort move for the white-haired Hall of Famer. Clearly, there is a ton of ability here, but we’ll see if this guy can transfer his main-track form to the lawn (and while stretching out for the first time). GRADE: B.
                                                            #4 SPIN LIGHTNING (4/1) came from off the pace to break his maiden at first-asking for a trainer who doesn’t usually have them fully cranked. Because of that, he tried much tougher foes in the Futurity (G1), but he showed he wasn’t in that league. I like that Mullins now switches him to the turf, since he’s bred top and bottom to handle the lawn—and I like that he showed he could pass horses in his debut. GRADE: A.
                                                            #5 KING OF SPEED (4/1) lost to Rijeka (Ire) two back at the maiden level, launching a late bid to get the place as the 3/1 favorite—but he made amends last time when breaking his maiden in impressive fashion in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf, winning at 15/1. He’s logical if he gets the right pace set-up to flatter his stretch run. GRADE: B.
                                                            #6 TAKEO SQUARED (8/1) was 12/1 in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf, and he too came on for a late run, finishing third while in tight. Before that, he showed tactical speed beating Cal-bred MSWs to graduate, so he has a little versatility—but he will have to turn the tables on King of Speed today. GRADE: C.
                                                            #7 HONCHO (12/1) was 20/1 in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf, where he stalked the pace before getting outfinished by a few of these. He certainly has the look of one who will continue to improve with racing, but he will need a step forward today. That said, his trainer has been on fire lately, so a big step forward is certainly possible. GRADE: C.
                                                            #8 MORE ICE (6/1) stalked a very slow pace last time before kicking home to get up and win at 10/1, breaking his maiden with a 5-pound weight-break. He loses that advantage today against stakes foes, so we’ll see how he performs on the square and from this outside post. Note that two back King of Speed beat him fairly easily. GRADE: C.

                                                            1st:
                                                            5
                                                            King Of Speed $13.40 $4.40 $3.20
                                                            2nd:
                                                            3
                                                            Much Better $3.60 $2.80
                                                            3rd:
                                                            1
                                                            Rijeka (Ire) $3.80
                                                            4th:
                                                            6
                                                            Takeo Squared
                                                            5th:
                                                            4
                                                            Spin Lightning
                                                            • $1.00 EXACTA 5-3 $17.70
                                                            • $0.50 TRIFECTA 5-3-1 $48.30
                                                            • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 5-3-1-6 $30.82
                                                            • $1.00 SUPERHIGHFIVE 5-3-1-6-4 $717.60
                                                            • $2.00 DAILY DOUBLE 6/5 $318.40
                                                            • $0.50 PICK 3 3 OF 3 7/6/5 $201.90

                                                            Comment
                                                            • Getch13
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 07-13-18
                                                              • 6941

                                                              #31
                                                              Santa Anita

                                                              LEG 3 (R9):
                                                              Today’s third leg doesn’t get easier: a $40K optional-claiming/N1X for older horses going 8.5-furlongs on the main track. There should be a quick pace in here, but it’s always a tricky proposition backing off-the-pace runners in dirt races in California!
                                                              #1 PADDOCK PICK (5/1) has tactical speed, so it will be interesting to see what Pereira does with this stretch-out sprinter who looks like he finally figured out how to relax last time when running third at this level in a 6-furlong dash at Del Mar. His one route try saw him make the running before weakening to finish fourth. He fits on figures, but the race shape isn’t the greatest for him. GRADE: B.
                                                              #2 CROATIAN (20/1), the first Baffert entrant, looks like the weaker of the two, but when has that mattered before, as the “other Baffert” wins its fair share of races? That said, this one has never really taken “Baffert” money, and he needed MSWs at Los Al to finally graduate, which he did last time while attending a slow pace. He needs to pick it up, but that work two back is pretty sharp. GRADE: C.
                                                              #3 LORD GUINNESS (8/1) is a 3-year-old who has shown he can sit off the pace and run on through the lane, a skill that should come in handy today with today’s anticipated quick pace. The 5-pound weight-break can’t hurt nor can the added ground today, since he was grinding away last time going a mile. He’ll need to run a little bit faster today, but that’s not impossible. GRADE: B.
                                                              #4 ITALIANO (12/1) has sprint speed, so he should be attending the pace, but then we’ll see how much stamina he shows, since he gave up the ghost pretty easily last time when facing age-restricted N1X types while going a mile on turf (and getting a 5-pound weight-break, which he loses today). Note that he beat age-restricted $50K claimers two back, so perhaps he’ll need a softer spot after this. GRADE: X.
                                                              #5 MASTER SINGER (15/1) has two wins to his credit, and that’s a positive since he’s facing N1X foes—but both of those wins came overseas while racing on synth and racing much farther. His first U.S. start saw him put in a mild late bid to split the field while racing on turf. He should be super-fit, but it remains to be seen how he handles the dirt today. GRADE: C.
                                                              #6 LONGDEN (GB) (4/1) will be the more fancied Baffert runner, but he took a while to break his maiden, so he’s no cinch in here, even though he did just miss at this level last time when facing age-restricted runners back in May. He’s been freshened since then, so we’ll see how he comes back to the races after training mostly at Los Al (before a pedestrian work over this track on September 30). GRADE: B.
                                                              #7 AIR STRIKE (3/1) made his first SoCal start a winning one, destroying MSWs at Del Mar as the 7/5 favorite. Can this 3-year-old move forward off that maiden-breaker in his first try versus winners? He’s never run a bad race, so why not? But it’s always a tough assignment to beat winners in your first try at the N1X level. GRADE: B.
                                                              #8 SHANE ZAIN (12/1) was thrown to the wolves off just an okay maiden-breaker at Oaklawn Park, which he won in forwardly placed fashion. Those subsequent races against tougher certainly took their toll, since O’Neill was more than happy to lose him for $50K last time when Baltas took the bait. Now he returns off a brief freshening, newly gelded and removing the blinkers. I like that Baltas is protecting him here, so perhaps he can get this one to fire a good one today—but it’s not like this 3-year-old was lighting the world on fire before he dropped in for a tag. GRADE: B.
                                                              #9 MAJOR CABBIE (6/1) wired maidens to graduate two back, and then he came from the clouds to run third in his first try at this level. I’m not sure what running style he’ll exhibit today, but it would behoove him to track the pace before running on through the lane. He’s a 3-year-old who can certainly continue to improve, but I do think he got favorable set-ups in each of his last two races, so I’m having a hard time figuring out his true ability today. GRADE: B.
                                                              #10 SHEER FLATTERY (9/2) has already won at this level (after many attempts), so he’s in for the tag. He’s rarely run a bad race over this track, so I’m willing to toss his last start against tougher at Del Mar over a track that some horses just hated, and he might have been one of them. I like that he’s versatile and proven at the level, but I’ve always thought he was best at a mile, so Conner will have to get the most out of him in here going 8.5-panels. GRADE: A.

                                                              1st:
                                                              7
                                                              Air Strike $6.00 $3.80 $3.20
                                                              2nd:
                                                              3
                                                              Lord Guinness $11.80 $6.60
                                                              3rd:
                                                              1
                                                              Paddock Pick $5.40
                                                              4th:
                                                              10
                                                              Sheer Flattery
                                                              5th:
                                                              5
                                                              Master Singer
                                                              • $1.00 EXACTA 7-3 $43.30
                                                              • $0.50 TRIFECTA 7-3-1 $126.15
                                                              • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 7-3-1-10 $142.00
                                                              • $1.00 SUPERHIGHFIVE 7-3-1-10-5 $2,753.60
                                                              • $2.00 DAILY DOUBLE 5/7 $53.60
                                                              • $0.50 PICK 3 3 OF 3 6/5/7 $350.65

                                                              Last edited by Getch13; 10-08-18, 08:10 PM.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Getch13
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 07-13-18
                                                                • 6941

                                                                #32
                                                                Santa Anita

                                                                LEG 4 (R10):
                                                                We close out the race week with another competitive race, this one a $40K maiden-claimer for fillies and mares going a mile on the lawn. These maiden-claimers on turf are always tricky because it’s tough to get a true class gauge since several of these types have been racing on dirt.
                                                                #1 SOLARIUM (10/1), the first Cassidy entrant, was 19/1 in her debut at this level while going 6.5-furlongs on dirt, and a brutal start cost her all chance. She did run on a bit late, so she’s eligible to improve today with a good start—but we’ll see if she takes to the turf. GRADE: C.
                                                                #2 GRECIAN FORT (50/1) is 0-for-10 and hasn’t really been competitive while racing on dirt. I’m not sure the move to the lawn is going to help. GRADE: X.
                                                                #3 SENSIBLE THOUGHTS (2/1) is super-obvious in here off a few decent races against tougher, including an okay fourth against $62.5K maidens two back while trying the lawn for the first time. She should be tough in here. GRADE: A.
                                                                #4 WEATHER MARKET (12/1) ran third against Cal-bred MSWs in her second career start when trying a mile on turf for the first time. It was a nice effort, but she clearly has some physical issues, which is why Gaines decided to run her for a tag a few times—including last time when she was offered for $20K. Pender took her and switches her back to turf. I’ve always said: Gaines doesn’t give anything away, but OptixWORKS seems to like the training pattern here. GRADE: C.
                                                                #5 EXES N OHS (10/1) was just claimed for $20K off Baffert, and that’s not usually a ringing endorsement. She was beaten double-digits in each of her dirt starts, so new trainer Greenman will look to shake things up by switching her to turf and taking off the blinkers. I’ll watch one here. GRADE: X.
                                                                #6 POINT TO POINT (6/1), the second Cassidy runner, was 22/1 in her debut against $62.5K maidens while going today’s distance on turf. She had an eventful journey, so don’t be so harsh on her poor finish. She can move forward today, especially with the class-relief and with that experience run under her belt. GRADE: B.
                                                                #7 CRACKLING BREAD (8/1) was taken off Cerin for $20K in her first SoCal start, so I’m skeptical about whether Periban can move her up, since I have to think Cerin had her fully cranked for the ship-and-win bonus at Del Mar. That said, she does have East Coast turf form that isn’t bad, so it’s nice to see Periban move her back to the lawn—but there’s a reason Cerin placed her at the $20K level. GRADE: X.
                                                                #8 TIZ GOLDILUX (5/1) hasn’t been able to string races together, and that’s something I never like to see. She’s also been racing down the hill, so maybe this is a leg-stretcher off a May layoff for a downhill race later on? She does drop from the $75K level, but there are plenty of question marks surrounding this 4-year-old. GRADE: C.
                                                                #9 CHALKY (IRE) (5/2) is a bit of a grinder who needs everything to go her way for the victory. She got a perfect set-up two back, but she lacked the necessary oomph to get the job done at Del Mar, losing to a classier horse. She gets slight class-relief today, so she’s obvious on that count alone, but she doesn’t exactly have the eye of the tiger, so I’m a bit wary about making her a top contender today. GRADE: B.

                                                                1st:
                                                                9
                                                                Chalky (Ire) $6.60 $4.20 $3.60
                                                                2nd:
                                                                4
                                                                Weather Market $8.60 $6.00
                                                                3rd:
                                                                5
                                                                Exes N Ohs $14.40
                                                                4th:
                                                                3
                                                                Sensible Thoughts
                                                                5th:
                                                                8
                                                                Tiz Goldilux
                                                                • $1.00 EXACTA 9-4 $36.10
                                                                • $0.50 TRIFECTA 9-4-5 $212.65
                                                                • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 9-4-5-3 $215.71
                                                                • $1.00 SUPERHIGHFIVE 9-4-5-3-8 $11,998.10
                                                                • $2.00 DAILY DOUBLE 7/9 $24.20
                                                                • $0.50 PICK 3 3 OF 3 5/7/9 $43.60
                                                                • $0.50 PICK 4 4 OF 4 6/5/7/9 $1,154.95
                                                                • $0.50 PICK 5 5 OF 5 7/6/5/7/9 $2,702.00
                                                                • $0.20 PICK 6 6 OF 6 7/7/6/5/7/9 $31,227.30
                                                                • - PICK 6 CarryOver $364,450.75

                                                                Comment
                                                                • Getch13
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 07-13-18
                                                                  • 6941

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Keeneland by Ellis Starr

                                                                  Race #7
                                                                  JP Morgan Chase Jessamine Stakes
                                                                  #4 Concrete Rose - Minimum odds 2/1
                                                                  #13 My Gal Betty - Minimum odds 5/2
                                                                  #9 Moravia - Minimum odds 7/2
                                                                  #10 Fierce Scarlett - Minimum odds 7/2
                                                                  Exactas: Box 4,9,10,13
                                                                  Exactas (Option 2): Box 4,9,10,12,13 (#12 is Espresso Shot).

                                                                  This is the JP Morgan Chase Jessamine Stakes, the last "Win & You're In" race for the Breeders' Cup next month, this race offering the winner an automatic spot in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. As such, 14 have signed on, with 2 also-eligibles to insure a full field.

                                                                  Concrete Rose was entered to run in Sunday's Dixiana Bourbon Stakes against males but her trainer scratched her to win against her own gender, a great move. She was very mature when winning in her debut on 8/20 at Saratoga, going from 8th of 10 early to 7th then to third and still 5 lengths back with an eighth of a mile to go when impressively taking the lead and drawing off. She was flattered when the runner-up came back to win and the 94 Equibase figure is tied for the best figure in the field, with My Gal Betty, from that one's effort when second in the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes last month. With improving to do of the experience of a race and bred to run even better at this longer distance, Concrete Rose could take some beating in this race.

                                                                  That being said, My Gal Betty may have a lot to say in keeping Concrete Rose form posting the slight upset. This filly won the first three starts of her career, the 2nd and third both stakes, before missing by a length in the Natalma while two clear of the next horse in a field of 13. She ships down from Woodbine for veteran Roger Attfield and gets Javier Castellano. Although she ran big at a mile last out we must note that was a one-turn race so she doesn't necessarily have an experience edge over Concrete Rose in that department although she does in the class department because she's run in three straight stakes races.


                                                                  Moravia ships in from Ireland and gets Lasix for a strong trainer in Jorge Abreu, who also saddles Espresso Shot. Moravia just finished second in a group three stakes against Skitter Scatter, who won again, and this filly has put in five solid workouts in the U.S. in preparation for the race as well as has raced well on a left handed course as she will be doing today. As such I won't count her out as a win contender for an instant. I'm included Espresso Shot in the 2nd recommended exacta box above because even though her two efforts to date were solid, they earned 85 figures a bit below the main contenders here. On the other hand she opens at 15/1, gets Prat, and as with all these two year olds can improve markedly from one race to the next.

                                                                  Fierce Scarlett brings together the potent combo of trainer Chad Brown and jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., currently the 2nd leading jockey (behind his brother Jose) in the race to be the #1 jockey in North America. Irad Ortiz, Jr. has won 27% of 300 races in the past year and change when given the leg up by Brown and the filly improved a ton 2nd time out last month when going long on turf for the first time, to win by 4 with a 90 figure that, if improved upon at a greater rate than the other fillies previously mentioned, would be good enough to help her win this race.


                                                                  1st:
                                                                  4
                                                                  Concrete Rose $7.20 $4.80 $3.60
                                                                  2nd:
                                                                  6
                                                                  Pakhet $11.40 $6.80
                                                                  3rd:
                                                                  16
                                                                  Belle Laura $14.20
                                                                  4th:
                                                                  10
                                                                  Fierce Scarlett
                                                                  5th:
                                                                  7
                                                                  Princesa Carolina
                                                                  • $1.00 EXACTA 4-6 $43.00
                                                                  • $0.50 TRIFECTA 4-6-16 $571.60
                                                                  • $0.10 SUPERFECTA 4-6-16-10 $348.89
                                                                  • - SUPERHIGHFIVE CarryOver $10,562.18
                                                                  • $1.00 DAILY DOUBLE 12/4 $27.90
                                                                  • $0.50 PICK 3 3 OF 3 9/12/4 $97.10


                                                                  Last edited by Getch13; 10-11-18, 10:58 AM.
                                                                  Comment
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