jbex small tracks.. live and early

[Easy-Rider 66]

first post today #24

delaware

R3 #4 call paul (9-5) 5W

Winner Pays $7

[Easy-Rider 66]

first post today # 24

delaware

R4 #2 english channical (6-1) 4WP

3rd

[Easy-Rider 66]

first post #24

delaware

R5 #2 ten penny princess (9-5) 5W


realize not a lot of value here but like so many things gonna play anyway

clm 10000b race (multiple conditions)

n4L .. does not qualify
no wins 6 months.. does not qualify
claiming races for <=8k not included (last condition).. qualifies

the even turf race last out at clm 16k and sets her up nice for this

3rd

[Easy-Rider 66]

first post #24

delaware

R7 #2 majestic doctor (8-1) 3WP

out of $$

[Easy-Rider 66]

first post #24

delaware

R8 #8 nakamura (7-2) 5W

2nd

[Easy-Rider 66]

Risked $77/Returned $65.40

[JBEX]

penn national

R6 #3 for the moment (8-1) 4WP

you get a nice pedigree for a sb msw..a way above average first out sire out of a stakes winning mare
who's produced 5 winners from 6 starters including a stakes winner..bred for the shorties top and bottom.. the trainer has just avg success with mdn and debuters but his roi is excellent with a large sample under his belt..jockey is 2/2 with this trainer with an average price of $11.60..he's also an excellent sprint jockey with a 21% success rate from 234 mounts

[Easy-Rider 66]

penn national

R6 #3 for the moment (8-1) 4WP

you get a nice pedigree for a sb msw..a way above average first out sire out of a stakes winning mare
who's produced 5 winners from 6 starters including a stakes winner..bred for the shorties top and bottom.. the trainer has just avg success with mdn and debuters but his roi is excellent with a large sample under his belt..jockey is 2/2 with this trainer with an average price of $11.60..he's also an excellent sprint jockey with a 21% success rate from 234 mounts

Placed Pays $15.60

[Easy-Rider 66]

Risked $85/Returned $81

[Easy-Rider 66]

A tale of 2 cities early in the process for you Jbex. You are Doing well on minor tracks, and not so good on major tracks. It will be interesting to see if the trend continues. GL Moving forward.

[JBEX]

A tale of 2 cities early in the process for you Jbex. You are Doing well on minor tracks, and not so good on major tracks. It will be interesting to see if the trend continues. GL Moving forward.

yeah well that penn horse looked liked run happy in the backstretch after breaking bad and then was gritty right down to the wire to miss by a nose racing on the inside..if he won ,like he should have by a lot with a good break, then my roi is just shy of 30%..point is you can't draw conclusions over a small sample..if you were to pick a thousand races by picking numbers out of a hat and you excluded all the horses say over 15-1 as choices just by random chance you'd probably land in the high 60's - low 70's..it's unlikely you'd do worse than that and more likely you'd do a little better

[Easy-Rider 66]

yeah well that penn horse looked liked run happy in the backstretch after breaking bad and then was gritty right down to the wire to miss by a nose racing on the inside..
if he won ,like he should have by a lot with a good break, then my roi is just shy of 30%..point is you can't draw conclusions over a small sample..if you were to pick a thousand races by picking numbers out of a hat and you excluded all the horses say over 15-1 as choices just by random chance you'd probably land in the high 60's - low 70's..it's unlikely you'd do worse than that and more likely you'd do a little better

That seems a bit ambitious to me. I would think maybe around 40% to 50%. Yeah plan on grading your stuff for the long term as long as you keep firing away. Let's see where we stand after the Spa and Del mar conclude on Labor day.

[JBEX]

That seems a bit ambitious to me. I would think maybe around 40% to 50%. Yeah plan on grading your stuff for the long term as long as you keep firing away. Let's see where we stand after the Spa and Del mar conclude on Labor day.

just think about it for a second..you're playing against the track take that's all..you're average odds would probably be around 6 or 7-1 ..no way you end up in the 50's and if you did in a vacuum over 10 sample sets of 1000 each just playing random it would be a miracle..I'd say low 60's (be higher) unlikely over that size sample

[Easy-Rider 66]

just think about it for a second..you're playing against the track take that's all..you're average odds would probably be around 6 or 7-1 ..no way you end up in the 50's and if you did in a vacuum over 10 sample sets of 1000 each just playing random it would be a miracle..I'd say low 60's (be higher) unlikely over that size sample

I do not know what the right percentage would be. I guess field size would be one important variable. Not a mathematician or a stats guy.

[JBEX]

I do not know what the right percentage would be. I guess field size would be one important variable. Not a mathematician or a stats guy.

we're both wrong by a lot..barry meadow and mark cramer are two of the most published authors in handicapping
and the former did a newsletter for many years which still might still be going

what it's basically saying here is play long enough and you'll lose slightly more than the track take on win bets
(around 18% average)..

more than 200,000 races

1st choice 81%
2nd choice 82%
3rd choice 80%
4th choice 79%
5th choice 79%
6th choice 78%
7th choice 76%


hopefully link works

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=2419

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thx for link. Not sure I totally understand what that has to do with picking numbers out of a hat?

[JBEX]

Thx for link. Not sure I totally understand what that has to do with picking numbers out of a hat?

picking numbers random vs handicapping..there's very little difference 1st -7th so bottomline even if you're a bad handicapper or just playing numbers.. your not going to lose more than a quarter on the dollar making win bets playing the horses over a large sample of races. .200,000 in this case

[Easy-Rider 66]

"Play long enough the House takes you. Unless when that perfect hand comes- You bet big. Then you take the house."

[JBEX]

this is why I frown on keeping records..that's where your going to wind up if you play long enough..a little better if you've got some skills a little worse (but not a lot) if you don't ..these small samples not reflective of the big picture
by any means

[Easy-Rider 66]

this is why I frown on keeping records..that's where your going to wind up if you play long enough..a little better if you've got some skills a little worse (but not a lot) if you don't ..these small samples not reflective of the big picture
by any means

Disagree. At least if you track you can see how you do. Otherwise imo you are just throwing darts for the most part. And what is the Big Picture anyway. Most likely you are going to lose. How many players beat this game long term? Not many I would assume. Maybe with contest play where the rake is less? If you would rather me not track your plays no worries. If you want to post plays and not track just say so.

[JBEX]

Disagree. At least if you track you can see how you do. Otherwise imo you are just throwing darts for the most part. And what is the Big Picture anyway. Most likely you are going to lose. How many players beat this game long term? Not many I would assume. Maybe with contest play where the rake is less? If you would rather me not track your plays no worries. If you want to post plays and not track just say so.

I just feel these short term results are not that meaningful..if someone's picking numbers out of hat over 300 races and he has a higher roi than me is he a better capper? if I tried my hardest to lose 30% of my money making win bets over 5000 races I couldn't do it.. btw i'd say the same thing if I were doing well...all I would ask is no commentary on results (roi's) because I disagree with you on this.. keep tracking if you want.. no problem with that

[Easy-Rider 66]

I just feel these short term results are not that meaningful..if someone's picking numbers out of hat over 300 races and he has a higher roi than me is he a better capper? if I tried my hardest to lose 30% of my money making win bets over 5000 races I couldn't do it.. btw i'd say the same thing if I were doing well...all I would ask is no commentary on results (roi's) because I disagree with you on this.. keep tracking if you want.. no problem with that

JBEX: Not sure where you are going with this. I plan on tracking my results if I post plays. That's my thing. And I do not mind commentary on how I am doing. If I get too much in the negative, I probably would stop posting on the regular and spot play. For you, it sounds like you would rather fire away a copious amount of plays with no records. I do not see the point in that, but each to his own. You make it seem like you are doing me a favor by allowing me to track your results. Not. I am doing it to give you and your followers a chance to see how you perform. But the more I think it over it's probably not in your best interest.

[JBEX]

JBEX: Not sure where you are going with this. I plan on tracking my results if I post plays. That's my thing. And I do not mind commentary on how I am doing. If I get too much in the negative, I probably would stop posting on the regular and spot play. For you, it sounds like you would rather fire away a copious amount of plays with no records. I do not see the point in that, but each to his own. You make it seem like you are doing me a favor by allowing me to track your results. Not. I am doing it to give you and your followers a chance to see how you perform. But the more I think it over it's probably not in your best interest.

I believe what I said..you need huge samples to draw conclusions on the skills of a handicapper and don't believe a few hundred plays reflects that.. you can stop tracking my plays and I will proceed in these two threads like I did with my other one.. didn't mean to sound unappreciative of your efforts.. thanks anyway

[Easy-Rider 66]

I believe what I said..you need huge samples to draw conclusions on the skills of a handicapper and don't believe a few hundred plays reflects that.. you can stop tracking my plays and I will proceed in these two threads like I did with my other one.. didn't mean to sound unappreciative of your efforts.. thanks anyway

OK Jbex. No worries. To be clear was going to grade your action for as long as I kept my thread going. But if you like the idea of just posting plays I wish you the best.

[JBEX]

OK Jbex. No worries. To be clear was going to grade your action for as long as I kept my thread going. But if you like the idea of just posting plays I wish you the best.