an observation from a result today

[JBEX]

gulfstream R3

race :35K claimer for 3yo
winner paid $22.40


jockey (jan 2017) 9%/578 mounts
trainer (same) 8%/103 starts
last race :same level
when:3 weeks ago
odds:31-1
finish: 3rd by less than a length
distance last race:6f
distance today: 6.5

have seen this happen all too often..a horse runs a solid race last out at the same level and distance and surface and track conditon .. if the jockey trainer combo is below average often the horse will go off at overlay odds especially if he went off at big odds in his previous race..if it was castellano and chad brown this horse would probably be 3-1..that's not giving the actual combo enough credit imo

[JBEX]

gulfstream R3

race :35K claimer for 3yo
winner paid $22.40


jockey (jan 2017) 9%/578 mounts
trainer (same) 8%/103 starts
last race :same level
when:3 weeks ago
odds:31-1
finish: 3rd by less than a length
distance last race:6f
distance today: 6.5

have seen this happen all too often..a horse runs a solid race last out at the same level and distance and surface and track conditon .. if the jockey trainer combo is below average often the horse will go off at overlay odds especially if he went off at big odds in his previous race..if it was castellano and chad brown this horse would probably be 3-1..that's not giving the actual combo enough credit imo

if I see any of these going forward I'll put them in here.. exact rules will be

<= 30 day rest
<= 2 lengths from winning
<= 10% rider
<= 10% trainer
distance within 1 furlong of the previous race same class, surface and track condition

[JBEX]

gulfstream

R1 #2 cousin tino (15-1)

so close to qualifying gonna give him a mention..jockey 9% and trainer 12% BUT 10/179 (6%) at the current meet so that's good (or bad ha ha)enough for me..odds last race 52-1

[Easy-Rider 66]

gulfstream

R1 #2 cousin tino (15-1)

so close to qualifying gonna give him a mention..jockey 9% and trainer 12% BUT 10/179 (6%) at the current meet so that's good (or bad ha ha)enough for me..odds last race 52-1

NO respect from the public. Now 30/1 4 out.

[JBEX]

NO respect from the public. Now 30/1 4 out.

finished 6th by 11 lengths but 10 lengths separated 1st from 3rd..amazingly went off almost exactly the same odds at 51.8 -1..this is a good example thought imo ..he should not be thus price off his last race..his last figure was as good as anybody in this race and no respect at all..will keep putting them up when I come across them

[JBEX]

tampa bay

R4 #10 el mayito (4-1)

jock 276/6%
trainer 23/4%
2nd by half length last race..
odds 22-1

think he'll be higher odds..knocked heads on the front end all the way around and pace according to brisnet was 3 lengths faster than par

easy..these don't count towards my roi unless they wind up in my main thread

[Kike Anderson]

Also love the #10 in Race 4. Though, I don't think he will be higher odds. Expect 9/5 here, unfortunately.

[JBEX]

Also love the #10 in Race 4. Though, I don't think he will be higher odds. Expect 9/5 here, unfortunately.

i meant higher than 4-1 morning line but should have explained it better..went off 8-1.. no good anyhow

[JBEX]

just want to point out a good example of this working at gulfstream today.i picked another horse in my thread in this race..it actually just misses qualifying but very much in the spirit of the rules

GP R6 #5 paid $58.60 to win

last race

*3rd by 1.75 lengths
state bred oc16n1xot

*today's race

clm 30kb (conditioned claimer)

I looked at the pars for the pace figs and this race just a shade quicker..it's close to a parallel move..

*jock this meet.. 135 mounts /9% wins
*jock since 1/2017.. 583 mounts/13%
*trainer this meet.. 13 starts/23% wins
*trainer since 1/2017.. 72 starts/7% wins

when you consider everything this is very close to a play imo..without going into detail this horse has a close 3rd at 62-1 and 19-1 (also 3rd and both within 2 lengths) within his last 10 races using this method..having observed this casually for many years do believe it's an edge angle long haul..people undervalue a recent solid effort if the connections are below average

[JBEX]

gulfstream thursday (only play there)

R6 #9 the other cat (12-1)

[JBEX]

there was a great example of this today and I forgot to post it..at least in this thread as i did include him in my now defunct p6 (my top 3 boxed was the triple $254 for $2)

the 2nd place horse was 24-1 and missed by a neck..

today: 3yo @5f turf clm 25k
previous: mdn clm 20k @ 5f turf..he won

jock:121 mounts /7% wins
trainer: 416 starts/ 4%wins
last race:23 days ago

so a definite qualifier

[JBEX]

parx

R1 #3 i'm truly blessed (15-1)

came in 2nd by 2 lengths last out at this level (mdn clm 15k) ..gained 3 lengths in the stretch @ 5.5f and today is going 6f..trainer 6% and this is jockeys 2nd ride both since
Jan 2017..he's not listed as a bug which I don't get but guess he's just been away for a while..last race 2/27..making this horse 15-1 is simply ridiculous and goes to show how little respect bad jt combos get

the 2 and 3 posts are really bad in park sprints so maybe that factors in but he did break from the 2 hole last out

[JBEX]

parx

R1 #3 i'm truly blessed (15-1)

came in 2nd by 2 lengths last out at this level (mdn clm 15k) ..gained 3 lengths in the stretch @ 5.5f and today is going 6f..trainer 6% and this is jockeys 2nd ride both since
Jan 2017..he's not listed as a bug which I don't get but guess he's just been away for a while..last race 2/27..making this horse 15-1 is simply ridiculous and goes to show how little respect bad jt combos get

the 2 and 3 posts are really bad in park sprints so maybe that factors in but he did break from the 2 hole last out

haven't heard officially but looking at the radar probably be no racing because of the snow.. still it's a good example

[str]

haven't heard officially but looking at the radar probably be no racing because of the snow.. still it's a good example

Parx has cancelled today due to the deadly injury to jockey Jose Flores in yesterdays last race.

He is on life support as of now but has has extensive cranial and spinal injuries per the racing form.

He is not expected to live.

So terribly sad. He leaves a wife and a seven year old son as well as two grown sons.

[JBEX]

Parx has cancelled today due to the deadly injury to jockey Jose Flores in yesterdays last race.

He is on life support as of now but has has extensive cranial and spinal injuries per the racing form.

He is not expected to live.

So terribly sad. He leaves a wife and a seven year old son as well as two grown sons.

wow that's terrible!! seen his name in the PP's for years.. really puts things in perspective and makes you realize how dangerous an occupation jockey's have

[JBEX]

tampa bay

R7 #7 card spun (12-1)
R9 #6 glory ride (30-1)**

**picked a different one in today's selections but this is a system horse

[JBEX]

oaklawn

R9 #10 tre lee devine (20-1)

santa anita

R5 ##1 victoria falls (9-2)

[JBEX]

added play santa anita

[JBEX]

parx

R1 #6 princess rose (5-1)