Overlays

[Martinr]

These will almost exclusively be in the U.K. and Ireland. They will mainly be 50% or better chances based on my own markets.
Staking is Kelly x 0.25, based on my perceived % chance of the horse winning and the generally available online price.
I use Betfair where liquidity often isn't high enough until 1-2 hours pre post, but the majority of these will shorten and SP will often be below the price posted, so best to bet as early as possible if following.
Starting with a 100pt virtual bank and using the price I take -5% commission for recording purposes.



Chepstow 13:35
Ice Cool Champs
need: 1.45 (69%)
available: 2.66 Betfair exchange, 2.10 - 2.25 generally elsewhere)

bank: 100
stake: 10.36% (Kelly (41.44%) * 0.25)

bank: 89.64.

[Martinr]

Aintree 11:55
Midnight Shadow
need: 2.00 (50%)
available: 3.50
stake 7.50

[Martinr]

Sandown 13:45
Finian's Oscar
need: 1.92 (52%)
available: 3.00
stake: 7.00

3 good overlays in one day is uncommon. There can be a week or more when there are none.

[pabonaparte]

Do you know how much tax a U.K. resident would have to pay on Betfair winnings if all of his play was highly +EV and he plays horses only?

[Martinr]

Do you know how much tax a U.K. resident would have to pay on Betfair winnings if all of his play was highly +EV and he plays horses only?

Gambling winnings in the U.K. are generally not taxable. If someone is using gambling as their sole source of income and declaring it as such, it may be different but would be pretty easy to avoid if someone wanted to.
If you mean how much commission would be paid on Betfair winnings (to Betfair), then it varies. 4.9% is the base rate, which is discounted depending on how much commission is generated.
Betfair's Premium charge kicks in if the account is profitable (lifetime) and if the commission generated equates to less than 20% of the profit. That can get problematical and it's a bit complicated, but it usually only applies to high volume traders.



Bank 75.14

Cheltenham 12:10
Summerville Boy
need: 2.00 (50%)
available: 2.75 (currently only available at Paddy Power and will likely shorten to 2.50 -ish shortly)
stake: 5.35

bank 69.79

also looking at 13:00 Doncaster (Stowaway Magic) but need slightly better odds.

[Martinr]

Bank: 69.79

Navan 12:50
Cracking Smart
need: 1.96 (51%)
available: 2.80 Betfair exchange. (2.60-2.75 elsewhere)
stake: 6.00

Bank: 63.79

[Martinr]

Bank: 56.79
_________
Catterick 13:20
Impulsive Star
need: 1.66
available: 2.30 (Betfair exchange. 2.10/2.20 elsewhere)
stake: 7.30
_________
Bank: 49.49

[Martinr]

Bnk 49.49
________

Ludlow 13:55
Tell It To Me
need 2.00 (50%)
available: 3.50 (B365)
stake 7.50
_________

Bank 41.99

[Martinr]

Bank: 41.99
__________



Leopardstown 14:20
Death Duty
need: 1.92 (52%)
available: 2.75
stake: 6.00


Wincanton 15:15
Jessbers Dream
need: 1.66 (60%)
available: 2.37
stake: 7.50
___________

bank: 28.49

Not included here because I'm keeping this thread for circa 50% chances but I'm fairly sure Bristol De Mai is undervalued in the King George VI (15:05 Kempton) at the widely available 7/2 (4.50) quote.

[Martinr]

Bank 28.49
_________

Cheltenham 13:25
Willoughby Court
need 1.96 (52%)
available 3.00
stake 7.00


Catterick 14:10
Paper Roses
need 2.00 (50%)
available 2.75
stake 5.00
___________

Bank 16.49
___________

Edit:

+

Catterick 12:25
Dieg Man
need 1.44 (70%)
available 1.53
stake 3.35
___________

Bank 13.14

[Martinr]

Bank 18.25

Plumpton 13:35
Harefield
Need: 1.43 (70%)
Available: 1.95
Stake: 9.60

Bank: 8.65