Going tomorrow does anyone have any winners for me?
I don't know much about horses.
I don't know much about horses.
-
-
Disclaimer - I don't like favorites
Here's my thoughts
Race 1 - Not much hope of beating all the faves. 3-Rcatcanscat 7-2 looks best so don't think we get her as 2nd or 3rd choice. Most likely the fave. Would try and beat 8-Rally Back in the exacta with 4 & 9 .
3 to win
3/4,9 ex key bx
Race 2 - Think this is between 1-Loud Stalker 6-1 or 2-Sawbuck 3-1. On prices obv lean toward the 1 but would also try to beat favorite 7 whose good connections seem to be looking for answers moving this horse back to a dirt sprint. His only other dirt race wasn't very good. Throwing the 1ster 3-This's How We Roll 10-1 in ex to hopefully hit a nice payout. Steady breezes for a couple months now and sire is decent 1st out.
1 to win
1,2,3 ex bx
Race 3 - Most of these maiden races you're going to have to decide what to do with the Baffert's. He has 3 entered this race . The fastest horse to have run and 2 first timers with blazing workouts. Including the 1 million dollar 1ster. If they're paying a million bucks for a horse though it's not for sprinting on dirt. Plus odds are even as good as he is another horse will win 6 or 7 times out of 10. Although when he has more a couple it's probably more like 50/50. Don't know how you'd choose between the 3. Admittedly taking a stab on 6-Awesome Heights 20-1, have a feeling he'll be better on dirt and 7f distance plays very well to horses cutting back from 1 mile on turf. Second choice would be 3-Seau 8-1 for the Dorf also cutting back from a mile but was on dirt and adds blinkers.
6 to W/P
6,3,Pick a Baffert ex bx
Race 4 - This is a tough one because I think the ML is off. Need to see how they bet it but looking at two 12-1 shots 10-Dynamic Scoring and 12-Professor Berns to toss in exacta. Think the 12 will go off higher than the 12-1 while the 10 may take a little money. 2-Champagne Charley 9-2 would be my choice still lightly raced and could be on his way to bigger things with a good showing stretching out to 9f for first time.
2,10,12 ex bx
Race 5 - A 2 year old msw with a fast working Baffert as fave. Then 9-Ruby Trust who finished 1/2 length 3rd in only start behind eventual BC Juvy filly winner champagne room. Then hit the bench for several months so ?? there too. No idea where to go this race. Would be either 2-Selcourt 5-1 or 7-Tizcool 12-1. Sadler and Hollendorfer , two guys that are even in Bafferts ballpark with 1sters.
I guess
2,5,7
Race 6 - 2-Hobbits Hero 15-1 has been a front end router for a while . If he can run as fast down the hill at 6 1/2f then his ML seems awfully juicy.
2 to W/P
Race 7 - The 2 faves are a combined 9 for 10 sprinting, with the only loss being a 3/4 length 2nd in a grade 1. GL trying to beat them. Maybe add 1-Lunar Empress 20-1 and 5-Coniah 15-1 underneath in TRI/SUPER or stab at EX
Race 8 - Finally giving in and taking Baffert's 8-Mor Spirit 6-1 cause it's a price I can get behind. Last raced in the Kentucky Derby and Baffert is best there is at bringing horses back off long layoffs in graded stake dirt sprints.
Race 9 - Pace should be hot enough to get 9-Blackout 12-1 the trip he needs. Still lightly raced enough to have some progression as don't feel we have seen the best he has yet.Comment -
Twin q is races 6 and 9Comment
