Can someone tell me why this won't work for horse racing. I have tested a system where you pick a track (I believe just about any will work) and begin the day with the 1st race. You bet the favorite until it wins then you are done. Over 30% of the favorites win I am finding and the odds are always + on average so you aren't risking on big odds when you lose. If you run the numbers and you only bet say 2% (no greediness) of your bankroll per day it cannot lose in theory based on the math. Any thoughts? Note this is not a get rich quick deal.
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It is definitely not a get rich quick scheme. It is a slow attrition scheme.
When you hit, you are stopping? And if you lose, say, the first 8 races, you are continuing, and if you hit just the next race, you quit, and are most likely stuck?
Not a fan.Comment -
You hit that day/track you stop. Repeat the next day and so on. 2% of your bankroll each win. I cannot find a result at any track (at least the last week) where the favorite didn't hit in the first few races. The key is the favorite WILL hit over 30% of the time and the risk in horse betting is better than even odds. Meaning the favorite is usually + money and you can go 6 races with low risk. Unlike baseball where you may lay -170. Horse favorites are like 2 to 1 or similar - in your favor. The system works, at least from what I tested so far.Comment -
long term you will lose approx 16% of your handle per bet (track take out)...your wins on the favorite will not make up for the medium long stretches of losing 3-4-5-6-7 races in a row common..you hit an even money favorite after losiong 3 in a row and your done? you are down on the day 200%Comment -
Can anyone state as FACT you will lose about 16% of every bet? By this, I mean how can one state a horse's true odds; if I believe a horse should be 3-1, and is going off at 8-1, what effect does takeout have at that point? One may make the argument that these situations will be less likely with higher takeout, but it doesn't change the value of an overlay.Comment -
again i am new to the horse racing completely so i may be missing something. the way i am approaching this you will never lose (a series) unless the favorite doesn't win in say 10 straight races then you may be in trouble. there is no long term here cause you keep chasing the bet/favorite until it wins at that track then you are out after you have won your "unit" for that day/track. look at every track today so far, they won the way i am doing it. your win amount is $5. race 1 loses (say you bet 5 to win 6 as example) you are down $6. next race you take the favorite at say 8/5 odds. you bet enough to win $11 (your loss plus your unit for the day $5). you lose race 3 you keep doing it. unless you lose 8-10 in a row (which i cannot find at any track results page) you will never lose. not guaranteed of course but this system is solid.Comment -
This is no different from any other martingale system; it will work for a while, but that one day when 7 or 8 straight favorites lose, you lose all of your profits and than some.Comment -
totally not a fan of systems like these, but because the odds are the way they are in horses and win% over 30% for the favorite (FYI some tracks higher) it looks good. not sure if i'll try it or not. if so maybe a few bucks a unit for shits n giggles.Comment -
It appears you are looking in the rear view mirror on this one. Every prospective system can be manipulated to make it appear to be successful for events that have already happened.
There a number of problems to this system. First off, how do you know which horse will be the favorite? Many races will have 2 or even 3 horses within a range that any of them could be the post time favorite, so how do you bet that? Next, how do you know how much to bet? With the tote system being as antiquated as it is, the odds on many if not most horses change after the betting closes, so the horse you bet at 2-1 could close at 6-5. Which brings up another problem, what of the favorite switches after the betting closes?Comment -
Using your number of 30%, why would a person bet into a losing proposition the way you're proposing?
If you were going to key for exotics, I could understand it but even then one has to be careful and know what they're doing. 
Just my two cents. Carry on. 
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