Dubai World Cup Carnival 2016

[mikemca]

Starts next Thursday

Thursday, 7 January, 2016	Dubai World Cup Carnival	7:00 pm
Thursday, 14 January, 2016	Dubai World Cup Carnival	7:00 pm
Saturday, 16 January, 2016	Racing at Meydan	4:00 pm
Thursday, 21 January, 2016	Dubai World Cup Carnival	7:00 pm
Thursday, 28 January, 2016	Dubai World Cup Carnival	7:00 pm
Saturday, 30 January, 2016	Racing at Meydan	4:00 pm
Thursday, 4 February, 2016	Dubai World Cup Carnival	7:00 pm
Thursday, 11 February, 2016	Dubai World Cup Carnival	7:00 pm
Saturday, 13 February, 2016	Racing at Meydan	4:00 pm
Thursday, 18 February, 2016	Dubai World Cup Carnival	7:00 pm
Thursday, 25 February, 2016	Dubai World Cup Carnival	7:00 pm
Thursday, 3 March, 2016	Dubai World Cup Carnival	7:00 pm
Saturday, 5 March, 2016	Super Saturday	4:00 pm
Friday, 11 March, 2016	Racing at Meydan	7:00 pm
Saturday, 26 March, 2016	Dubai World Cup	4:00 pm

*Gates open one and a half hours before all scheduled post times.

[mikemca]

[mikemca]

[mikemca]

[mikemca]

[mikemca]

[TonyP]

cant believe its already here

[mikemca]

Day 1 - Thursday - 1/7/16

Race 2
5-Nawwaar figures to be a little bit of a price approaching 10-1 and was once running in group 1 sprints a couple carnivals ago. Seems to have come back to form somewhat last 2 starts which were in November winning a race by 3 lengths and then finishing 2nd to Muarrab who has won 8 of his last 9 races(finishing 2nd in lone defeat). Public will most likely gravitate to 8-Kifaah due to Hanagan choosing that horse to ride of the 3 horses owned by Al Maktoum. He is hitting at close to 50% winners in Dubai when he rides for him. Might as well just box the 3 owned by him in exacta with 1-Rafeej being the 3rd. Trying the w/p pool though I'll try the 5 at a price.

5-Nawwaar
8-Kifaah
1-Rafeej

Race 3
Another Al Maktoum with Hanagan riding in Ertijaal but this is a 5f turf sprint with plenty of runners so will try and beat him. Might get a big price with 1-Ajeeb. Makes first start in the Seemar barn who took him from De kock but was in competitive form at this distance last carnival. 7-Speed Hawk has one of the best jocks on his back in James Doyle and is usually in the mix . De Kock sends his first runner in 2-Banaadeer.

1-Ajeeb
7-Speed Hawk
2-Banaadeer

Race 4
7-Special Fighter 12-1
8-Layl 10-1
2-Surfer 5-1

Race 5
1-Earnshaw
3-Sanshaawes
9-Hasanour
10-Paene Magnus

Race 6
2-Artigiano
5-Emirates Flyer
8-Majeed

Race 7
3-Bossy Guest
5-Glory Awaits
11-B Fifty Two
9-Eastern Rules

[mikemca]

Day 1 - Thursday - 1/7/16

Race 2
5-Nawwaar figures to be a little bit of a price approaching 10-1 and was once running in group 1 sprints a couple carnivals ago. Seems to have come back to form somewhat last 2 starts which were in November winning a race by 3 lengths and then finishing 2nd to Muarrab who has won 8 of his last 9 races(finishing 2nd in lone defeat). Public will most likely gravitate to 8-Kifaah due to Hanagan choosing that horse to ride of the 3 horses owned by Al Maktoum. He is hitting at close to 50% winners in Dubai when he rides for him. Might as well just box the 3 owned by him in exacta with 1-Rafeej being the 3rd. Trying the w/p pool though I'll try the 5 at a price.

5-Nawwaar
8-Kifaah
1-Rafeej

BINK

Nailed the first betting race

5-Nawwaar---------------1ST---18.00--4.60
8-Kifaah-------------------2ND-----------2.20
1-Rafeej

EXACTA 5/8---------72.80

[mikemca]

In this 3rd race Foxy Forever 22-1 and Morawij 5-1 were taking some support in the overnight markets. Morawij is taking too much today also down to 5-1 from 12-1 ml but Foxy Forever is a big price so throwing him in with

1-Ajeeb
7-Speed Hawk
2-Banaadeer
13-Foxy Forever

[mikemca]

Le Bernardin wins round 1 of Al Maktoum Challenge(R4) as the 2-1 fave but was on fumes. Will definitely try to beat again when the distance gets longer in round 2 and round 3.

[JayTris07]

BINK

Nailed the first betting race

5-Nawwaar---------------1ST---18.00--4.60
8-Kifaah-------------------2ND-----------2.20
1-Rafeej

EXACTA 5/8---------72.80

Very Nice Mike.

[TonyP]

way to go Mike

[mikemca]

thx after first race the favorites won too much(3 of next 4) and was pretty hard to have Star Empire after Soumillion picked the other De Kock. Last race was tough but Ghaamer was gettable on the cutback. Kicking myself a bit on him as I was looking for a viable turnback that race but overlooked him somehow.

Looks like the cards are lacking any big races for a couple weeks but will check out the fields next Thurs.

[brucedenton]

Great job Mikemca.

[trytrytry]

great thread going!

[mikemca]

Great job Mikemca.

Thx

great thread going!

Ty... Since the USA betting pool is seperate from the Euro pools it is kind of an inefficient market. Horses may be 2 or 3 to 1 in Euro market but 6-1 in US pool. Not so much in the smaller fields but there is almost always a big difference in large fields.

[mikemca]

Day 2 looks underwhelming. P Hanagan and J Doyle probably win most of the races at short prices. Could try the horses Richard Mullen rides for S Seemar for a price.

[mikemca]

Day 2 looks underwhelming. P Hanagan and J Doyle probably win most of the races at short prices. Could try the horses Richard Mullen rides for S Seemar for a price.

Damn missed some good prices skipping today. Mullen rode 3 winners for Seemar at around 17-1, 5-1, and 12-1 plus Soumillion had a 7-1 winner for De Kock.

[mikemca]

Day 3 - Many small fields again , put the likely best price on top


Meydan

Race 1
8-Street Act
3-Etijaah
5-Ormindo
Race 2
2-Banaadeer
3-Caspian Prince
4-Green Door
Race 3
2-Let's Go
4-Special Fighter
Race 4
5-Zarwaan
7-Safety Check
8-Anaerobio
Race 5
3-Elhaame
1-Elleval
2-Sanshaawes
Race 6
12-Fox Trotter
7-American Hope
1-Mind That Boy
4-Mustadeem
Race 7
2-Rio Tigre
3-Al Saham
7-Dormello
15-Battersea(AE)

[mikemca]

Day 4

Race 2
2-Roi De Vitesse 15-1

[mikemca]

Race 4
6-Earnshaw 12-1
Race 5
2-Fils Anges(ml on twinspires is low..should get 10-1+)
Race 6
6-Encipher 10-1
Race 7
11-Mutamakkin 4-1

[mikemca]

Damn , I forgot to post due to friggin headache and it was the best card this year quality wise with 3 Group races.

Kiaran McLaughlin/W Buick and James Doyle/Saeed bin Suroor dominated the 6 race card winning 2 races each.

Kiaran won 2 of the Group races one of which was Confrontation at 11-2, the other was Frosted at around even money.

McLaughlin will continue to tear it up the rest of the carnival capped off by a win in the big one Dubai World Cup with Frosted.

California Chrome and Keen Ice are also aiming for the World Cup but Frosted is a beast who hasn't had a lot of fanfare due to being unlucky enough to be in the same crop as American Pharoah.

He is good.

[harthebar]

Mike when does chrome run. Isn't he in dubai

[harthebar]

Or for that matter. Frosted

[harthebar]

I saw he won yesterday

[cecil127]

any leans for tomorrow? always appreciated.

[mikemca]

Sorry guys , for some reason just wasn't as in to the meet this year but tomorrow is Super Saturday. Then the big night in 3 weeks where I think we see Frosted vs Chrome and others.

Really disappointed in the card. Very top heavy with very few prices I can make a case for.

Saturday 3/5/16

Meydan

Race 1
Kind of sucks for such a big day. A 4 horse field with 3 of them having just raced and Market Rally crushed by 6 lengths. Very hard to oppose at something like 1-5. 2-Blue Creek would be the alternative but no bargain at only 3-1.

Race 2
Wow doesn't get much better here with either 4-6 favorite Rich Tapestry or 2-1 second choice Muarrab very likely winner if not finish 1st and 2nd.

Race 3
A little better but this race is usually impossible and can't help but feel there are only 3 or 4 real contenders. 8-Jungle Cat 9-2 is my preference of them going 2nd off layoff after dominate win 5 weeks ago.

Race 4
I really don't mean to be Debbie downer , I just can't believe how lame this card is. Le Bernardin 6-4 and Cool Cowboy 15-8 head yet another top heavy race. I'll take a stab with 6-Mind That Boy 33-1 thinking maybe Barzalona wrapped him up early the last 2 races when too far out of it. Suspect we haven't seen the best of him yet.

Race 5
Postponed 11-8
Dariyan 13-8
1-Haafaguinea 10-1

Race 6
9-Golden Soul 33-1
11-Keen Ice 9-4
3-Watershed 11-2

Race 7
2-Johann Strauss 11-1
5-Earnshaw 25-1
8-Tryster 8-13

[mikemca]

Alright , we reached World Cup night!!! As noted Super Saturday was a major letdown but there are a couple contentious races tomorrow. Or at least some long shots to throw in with the faves.

Saturday

Meydan(Dubai World Cup Night)

Race 2
The first race is for purebred Arabian horses which aren't open to bet on so skip to R2. The more open races are on the 2nd half of the card but interested in 10-Prayer For Relief at 20-1+. His form is littered with OK to poor races at 9f and further in top company. His bright spots are almost all 1 1/16 and shorter, more specifically at this races distance of 1 mile. Also this race is annually the weakest classwise so it's a class drop from most of his races. 2-Marking 2-1 and 9-Sloane Avenue 3-1 are the obvious ones to beat and are dominating the early betting. If there is an outsider imo it's Prayer For Relief .

9-Sloane Avenue
2-Marking
10-Prayer For Relief

Race 3
1-Vazirabad 6-5 has won 5 in a row with the last being a G1 while the rest of the field minus the 2 ,who won 2 weak races in Germany, haven't won even 1 in a row coming into this. Vazirabad , Manatee , and Big Orange look a cut above the rest . They are the likely 3 faves though. If there is anything to bet I choose 7-Big Orange 5-1 or 8-Manatee 4-1 to w/p. Their odds may be a touch inflated due to everyone thinking the 1 has already won. Michael Bell trainer of Big Orange says he is doing very well and Andre Fabre is one of best turf trainers in world wouldn't have Manatee here if he didn't have a good shot.

8-Manatee
7-Big Orange
1-Vazirabad

Race 4
According to the betting the fillies are going to dominate this race. 2-Polar River 3-5 is taking ALL the money and the horse she beat in the UAE Oaks 5-Vale Dori 9-2 is taking the rest. I am intrigued by the Japanese runners. I love their breeding program as they have put a major emphasis on dirt racing acquiring Eskendereya , I'll Have Another , Empire Maker , and others all to be bred to Sunday Silence's offspring. Sunday Silence has changed racing in Japan the way Storm Cat did in the US a decade or two ago. Another positive note is that all 3 Japanese runners started their careers at either 9fs or 10fs right out of the gate. 3-Lani 10-1 is sired by Tapit out of a Sunday Silence mare. He has won 2 of his last 3 races with fields of 15 and 16 horses. You won't find a better prepared horse for the Kentucky Derby in terms of stamina and dealing with 20 horse fields. Now it's just the question does he have the talent his breeding would suggest. Of the other two 4-Yu Change 8-1 has been running in the toughest races Japan has to offer and the 8-1 listed is low. Plus gets magic man J Moreira in the saddle. Will be double digits.

3-Lani 10-1
4-Yu Change 8-1
2-Polar River 3-5

Race 5
As usual this straight 5f turf dash is arguably the most contentious race on the card. Further enhanced by the fact that 6-Ertijaal leads the betting market due to dominating wins in much weaker races than this. He also likes to be around the front in a speed filled race. IMO he is most vulnerable fave on card by far. Already noted my admiration of Japan racing but I'm not the only one who thinks they hold the strongest hand this race. 5-Peniaphobia 7-1 finished 2nd in this race last year and may be the best sprinter in the race all around. At this specific 5f distance on a straight course 4-Not Listenin' Tome 10-1 may have the edge. Has finished behind the 5 in Japan several times but that was 6f with a turn. He has won his last 3 races at 5f going straight. 9-Buffering 8-1 is the Australian player. The Aussies reined supreme in turf sprinting for a little while and Buffering may be the last horse racing that competed against the great Black Caviar. Going 4 deep I'm torn between McLaughlin's 13-Lady Shipman 15-1 who has 8 wins and two places in 10 races at this distance and 8-Goldream 10-1 who imo is the overlay of the race. Two of his last four races have been G1 wins at 5f going straight.

4-Not Listenin' Tome 10-1
5-Peniaphobia 7-1
9-Buffering 8-1
8-Goldream 10-1
13-Lady Shipman 15-1

Race 6
Pretty crazy that J Navarro has a favorite on World Cup night. Once just the miracle working claiming trainer who improved horses 20 lengths off the claim , now might have the best dirt sprinter in the world. 3-X Y Jet 9-5 has annihilated the Gulfstream sprinters since last fall. Opening up sometimes 10+ lengths while crushing the field in gate to wire fashion. That style has played very well at Meydan this meet but there is a ton of other speed also. Granted none as fast as him. 2nd choice Confrontation may be too far out of it to close them down on the cutback from a mile to 6f. Even with a fast pace that's a difficult task on this track. 3rd choice Muarrab will be one of the horses that has to deal with XY Jet on the front end. Race could be playable if you can beat those two or two of the 3. 6-Super Jockey 7-1 finished 2nd in this race last year in similar 3rd start off layoff. 2-Master Kochanwong 12-1 has been running well on dirt in Hong Kong for the last few years. Depending on how he handles travelling for the first time he could surprise.

6-Super Jockey
2-Master Kochanwong
3-XY Jet
8-Confrontation

Race 7
The next two races feature favorites with some of the most devastating turn of foot I've seen in a while in Tryster(R7) and Postponed(R8). This race however is opposite of the last race with just about the whole field liking to take back to rear and make 1 run. Which leads me to maybe two horses that could be up front by themselves . 8-Intilaaq 2-1 was originally going to try dirt in the main event World Cup but was redirected to this race when connections found out last year's winner Solow wasn't going to enter. He likes to sit right behind the leader but can go gate to wire if need be. Then there is 11-Very Special 12-1 who is getting knocked by the journalists as having easy front end trips while easily winning last couple races . They were G2s and this race could set up another uncontested lead. A bomb who could surpise is 5-Farrier 30-1. He ran extremely well making his first ever start on turf.

8-Intilaaq
2-Tryster
11-Very Special
5-Farrier

Race 8
Back to my fascination with Japan racing. Duramente could be the best bred horse running. Made the Japan 3 year olds look bad last year similar to the way Orfevre did a few years prior. Orfevre was the horse that made me take an interest in JRA. His one race where he bolts mid race to the far side of the course losing somewhere in the 15-20 lengths and still wins is the most amazing race I've seen. After all that I think Duramente in underlaid and the horse to bet against. The way 7-Postponed 9-5 won his last race was jaw dropping. And it was a prep race for this! 6-Gailo Chop 15-1 could have some upside trying this distance for the first time.

7-Postponed
6-Gailo Chop
1-Last Impact
8-Highland Reel

Race 9
The Dubai World Cup looks like Frosted and Chrome or Chrome and Frosted. Hard to make a case for any of the foreign horses and Mshawish is only 8-1. I have had a soft spot for Hoppertunity since he missed the derby. Mubtaahij 15-1 has supposedly been pointing to this race since 1990 so you can toss all his recent races and maybe project a big improvement. 7-Vadamos 20-1 runs for the aformentioned A Fabre which is very curious. He doesn't run horses for the hell of it , usually. Maybe go heavy with Frosted and CC on top of the other 3 in ex or tri and then a stab 10,7,4 over 9,11.

9-Frosted
11-California Chrome
10-Hoppertunity 12-1
7-Vadamos 20-1
4-Mubtaahij 15-1

[trytrytry]

my favorite race in the world: Tryster
on him big tomorrow

[mikemca]

Nailed race 4.. Impeccably bred lani wins at a nce price.. On to Kentucky

[trytrytry]

Nailed race 4.. Impeccably bred lani wins at a nce price.. On to Kentucky

great cappinn..wanted tha 4 to hang on to 2nd ran a monster effort all 3 did. just hit this double now with your buffering pick you listed. good one to list with a chance.

[mikemca]

Ertijaal ruined my 2 race winning streak by splitting Buffering and Peniaphobia.

[trytrytry]

that is only the 3rd Australian based horse to win on dubai world cup day. buffering. 8 year old. must have been masterfully handled to get to this race an peak today. wow

[mikemca]

great cappinn..wanted tha 4 to hang on to 2nd ran a monster effort all 3 did. just hit this double now with your buffering pick you listed. good one to list with a chance.

Thanks.. Will be very interesting to see what kind of support Lani gets in Kentucky Derby.