Oaklawn Late Pick 4 (Arkansas Derby)

**BGboothA** · 04-11-15, 04:48 PM

I talked about it a bit in the other thread, so I will go through my thinking here.

A couple of things, Races 9 and 12 both popped up on my False Favorite report, making me think that we can get a better than average win price in those two races. Also race 10 popped up as a EarlySpeed W2W race with the 4 at morning line 5/1 odds again making me think that we have a shot at a price there. We have a shot at three live prices surrounding a solid 'gimmie' in the 11th, means its time to take a shot, throwing most of my days bankroll at this pick4.

I could have put $100 to win on American Pharaoh in the 11th, but that would likely have returned less than $20. So its time to put some numbers around him and see what we can hit. Also through in a what-if ticket at the end with all my A horses and three horses that could pop if American Pharaoh forgets to run the correct direction or something crazy happens in the Arkansas.

**BGboothA** · 04-11-15, 05:23 PM

Made it through with an A horse, so still very much alive through the first ticket, didn't get a good price, but really think the 4 could score here in the 10th with a nice price.

Will stay alive to any horse here in the 10th except the 1

**BGboothA** · 04-11-15, 05:48 PM

Grrrr....so much for finding a price! Ouch, a $5.40 horse keeps me alive on a huge number of tickets, but its setting up to win teh pick 4 and lose money.

Well now here is hoping something crazy happens in the Arkansas and Ap doesn't hit.

Alive to the 1,5,8/8,9
Alive to the 6 / 2,3,4,5,8,9

**Arky** · 04-11-15, 06:31 PM

8-8-6 so far with 1 race to go.... You're still in it for the final race...

GL

**BGboothA** · 04-11-15, 06:49 PM

Yeah but low chance of profit

**Arky** · 04-11-15, 07:00 PM

$180.30?

**BGboothA** · 04-11-15, 11:03 PM

Originally posted by Arky

$180.30?

Unfortunately NO, I only had $0.50 base bet on that string. So it returned $90.15 or more importantly, a net loss of -$38.85. Obviously it could have been worse, but man it could have been better too.

**Arky** · 04-12-15, 12:41 AM

Ya, I had the 6/1,2,3,4,5,7,8 exacta and the 2/6/7 exacta box. Lost points on both even though I won both. Had any other horse besides the #7 come in second, I might have broken even or +plus. The 2/6/7 box should have been trifecta-ed using the amazing power of hindsight..... Oh well, to be fair, I was going off AP's morning line of 1:2 and had no idea it would go all the way to 1:9. #2 Mr. Z gave me some relief - 20 pts. to Show paid 38 (net of 18)....

**DRB** · 04-12-15, 02:36 PM

Hi BG : You fought mightily it seems to extract value from a chalky combination.
I only saw the highlight of the horse winning by the length of the stretch and paying $2.20 ( was the field really that weak ?)
I did see the Florida Derby the week before and there were 2 horses ( match race style ) about 20 lengths ahead of everyone else.

If the ticket would have paid $100 ( the $1 parlay computes well under $100) for the dollar there would have been no complaints yet it paid almost double that.

At first glance I also thought you had the $1 combo as did Arky. Long term though, if one of the first 2 races had and 8:1 or 10:
shot the ticket would have easily paid $500. I'm glad for you that you covered the 6:1 shot in the last leg.

Shake off the small loss and move forward !

**BGboothA** · 04-12-15, 04:54 PM

Originally posted by DRB

Hi BG : You fought mightily it seems to extract value from a chalky combination.
I only saw the highlight of the horse winning by the length of the stretch and paying $2.20 ( was the field really that weak ?)
I did see the Florida Derby the week before and there were 2 horses ( match race style ) about 20 lengths ahead of everyone else.

If the ticket would have paid $100 ( the $1 parlay computes well under $100) for the dollar there would have been no complaints yet it paid almost double that.

At first glance I also thought you had the $1 combo as did Arky. Long term though, if one of the first 2 races had and 8:1 or 10:
shot the ticket would have easily paid $500. I'm glad for you that you covered the 6:1 shot in the last leg.

Shake off the small loss and move forward !

It was a net loss, but I would make the same bet again in a heart beat. If I could have had half a price in either of the first two legs, it would have been a great day. I was covered and confident. I could have saved $18 bucks and just singled AP, but it was worth a shot there.

I don't know how weak the field was, Mr. Z has been close to most of the other contenders in the KY derby at some point this prep season and he was nothing here. Same with Far Right who has owned Oaklawn recently.

I think *gulp* AP might just be that good.