My Pace Breakdown of the Derby

[BGboothA]

Well I have to be honest I think CC is going to have a tough time with the early pace that is going to be set around him. Look at just the first 10 posts.




These are using my own Early Speed figures, but CC is going to have a tough time not falling behind a wall of horses.


We know Vicar's will have to try to gun it from the 1 spot. Harry's Holiday will be out front as he usually is. Uncle Sigh's adds blinkers and should start well. Now he will have room to the inside with Danza, which may be a false blessing. Say he drops in behind HH, Vicars and Uncle sigh (or likely two of the three as someone will likely get squeezed)


Coming on CC's outside will be samraat who will try to race the same race CC wants to race. Joined by General A Rod, Vinceremos and WildCat who we all know want to go for the lead.


I have a feeling CC is going to be in the middle of quite the traffic jam as they head into the first turn. SOmething he has NEVER had to deal with before.


Now I am not saying that he can't win, I still think he has a shot and he is on top of my picks, but it isn't going to be as easy as some say it will. And as others have said his value is not going to be there.

[TonyP]

CC has had traffic probs before and also cam from way off the pace with a bad break

[Draynay]

I admit I am one of those people that have no idea why anyone thinks this horse (California Rust) can win the Derby. I don't even have him in my top 5. Being down inside with tons of speed to his outside leave him getting dirt kicked in his face for a mile. Chasing big fast horses is something he has never done and Churchill is not the Speedway in California. I feel sorry for those wasting money on a win bet on this horse or placing him in Tri. tickets..... what a waste.

[joeyp1222]

Good luck ryan ill have my saturdays card up friday night in my thread

[nvrlose37]

The pace projection seems off, I feel Vicar is going for the lead to replicate or attempt to replicate the LA derby.

Chrome broke poorly in one of his preps and still won handily, he has the talent to take the spot he wants around 4th or so.

[BGboothA]

Vicar will try to take the lead, but that doesn't mean he will be able to from the 1 hole. Honestly I think Harry Holiday was the worst possible horse to draw to two for Vicars chances.

If you watch the break in Harry Holiday's last three starts...just watch the first 5 seconds of the races.

In the Blue Grass he is in PP4 with Pablo De Monte (another very quick horse) on his inside. HH jumps out what looks slow compared to PDM, but HH hits his stride, is on the next line and then slams down to the rail.

In the Spiral , he again doesn't get the lead but he JUMPS out of the gate again, reacting nicely.

No video of his third last start on youtube and I can't link my twinspires replay. But HH breaks like a good quarter horse, which is going to be a huge problem for Vicars being on the inside. Especially in the 1 slot.

Now if Pablo Scratches (we shoudl know tomorrow morning) and they move everyone out one..that will be a differetn story, Viars willhave room. But as of right now, Vicars has to get the jump or the rail wil force him behind.

Look at what happend to Lookin At Lucky back in 2010. He beat the 2 horse out of the gate but couldnt' get in front of the 3 horse, got slammed into the rail that jumps out at the 1 and 2 spots.

That 1 hole is not always tough, but it all depends on who draws 2 and 3, and this year you have HH and a 1st time blinkers Uncle Sigh. Going to be tough.

[nvrlose37]

Uncle Sigh is 1st time blinkers? Shit, if he goes Palice Malice on the pace I'll be pissed.

[BGboothA]

Uncle Sigh is 1st time blinkers? Shit, if he goes Palice Malice on the pace I'll be pissed.

Yup, and a real possibility, considering his running style going into the race is pretty quick. He broke horrible in the Wood, and still ran pretty fast if you watch his replay. I don't see him holding on to the money, but he is going to be a factor inside to start with.

[nvrlose37]

Well Pablo is out now, that gives Vicar's the space he needs. Now he needs to fire

[BGboothA]

Now that post 1 will be empty, this changes things just a bit. Vicars will have some more room and may haev a change to get outside, which could push CC further inside.

[Ebumdude]

I'm throwing $20 at the fire for the race.

Four $5 bets.

Vicars

Danza

Medal count

Intense Holiday

these are my long shots. Do not tail as I don't know anything about racing. Lol

[joeyp1222]

i'm throwing $20 at the fire for the race.

Four $5 bets.

Vicars

danza

medal count

intense holiday

these are my long shots. Do not tail as i don't know anything about racing. Lol

just cause you like vicars im going to throw another $10 to win on him maybe ROSIE
can swipe the double lol yOu never know

[Draynay]

Danza is going to sit in the 2nd wave of horses and out sprint them at the top of the stretch. Anything over 5 to 1 on Danza is a gift California Rust is a softhorse who will fold under pressure.

[Ebumdude]

Danza is going to sit in the 2nd wave of horses and out sprint them at the top of the stretch. Anything over 5 to 1 on Danza is a gift California Rust is a softhorse who will fold under pressure.

caught Danza at 17/2.

$5 wager will net $42.50 if he wins

[Ebumdude]

just cause you like vicars im going to throw another $10 to win on him maybe ROSIE
can swipe the double lol yOu never know

Haha. I told you not to tail!!

I don't know anything about horses. This is a first time blind bet for me.

[joeyp1222]

Haha. I told you not to tail!!

I don't know anything about horses. This is a first time blind bet for me.

then you better bet vicars so we win together lol

[Ebumdude]

then you better bet vicars so we win together lol

Its already a done deal. Lol

Locked in a $5 wager with Vicars @ 22/1. $5 will net a win of $110.

[TonyP]

CC trainers an old school trainer as well dont let his wins on a fast cali track fool you into thinking he can not go the distance in derby, casue he can sit off the pace and he wont be inside as much as you think, he not going to get caught on the rail.

[Ebumdude]

Haha. Balls!