135th Kentucky Derby
Haynesfield is four for five and the best horse coming out of Aqueduct. More Photos >
It’s Wide Open.
“Nobody knows nothing,” is a saying that has been ascribed to everyone from movie executives to economists. It is particularly true of horseplayers trying to divine the winner of the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday May in the early days of March.
It is the reason bookmakers in Las Vegas offer future bets at long odds, on any and every 3-year-old to win America’s greatest horse race.
In January, holding tickets at 125-1 on the Derby prospects Shafted and Poltergeist seemed smart. In February, however, after each ran up the track in the Robert B. Lewis and Southwest Stakes, the colts were off the Derby trail and the tickets worthless.
Still, horseplayers know better than most that a) the more you guess the sooner you’re going to be right, and b) everyone only remembers your winners. The New York Times falls in line with this philosophy as well, and offers our first list of Derby contenders.
With the Triple Crown prep races at the halfway point, some familiar archetypes are arriving on the Derby landscape. In the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Quality Road romped to a four-and-a-quarter-length victory and became this year’s version of the lightly raced, late-blooming contender in the mold of last year’s Derby winner, Big Brown.
Quality Road won his first race last November at Aqueduct and generated plenty of buzz about his talent and speed. His father, the miler Elusive Quality, sired the 2004 Derby winner, Smarty Jones. But in Quality Road’s next race, an allowance on Jan. 10 at Gulfstream, he was battling a cough and looked ordinary in finishing second.
After his victory on Saturday, his trainer, Jimmy Jerkens, tried to tamp expectations. He has no idea if his colt can handle the Derby’s mile-and-a-quarter distance.
“A one-turn mile is still basically a sprint and a lot different than going two turns,” he said.
Later Saturday, in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park, the odds-on favorite, The Pamplemousse, led every step of the way. As impressive as his six-length victory was, The Pamplemousse will get more ink in the coming weeks for his name and ownership group.
Pamplemousse means grapefruit in French and the colt is named after Pamplemousse Grille, a high-end restaurant across the street from Del Mar racetrack in California. Jeffrey Strauss, the restaurant’s owner-chef, owns part of the horse with Alex Solis II, whose father rides The Pamplemousse.
“I’ve never ridden anything like him,” said Solis, a highly regarded rider who has never won a Derby but has finished second three times. “He has such a high cruising speed and he’s getting more and more amazing. He has such a good mind and he was real relaxed the whole way.”
At the top of the list, however, are two colts whose credentials are rock solid but perhaps a little boring. Old Fashioned has beaten all comers in all four of his races, including an impressive performance the mile-and-an-eighth Remsen as a 2-year-old and a victory in the Southwest Stakes.
He is trained by the highly skilled Larry Jones, whose Hard Spun ran second in the 2007 Derby to Street Sense. Old Fashioned, a son of Unbridled’s Song, is training and racing at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark., a path that had been successful for Triple Crown horses like Smarty Jones and Curlin.
Old Fashioned is the deserving early favorite, but that does not mean he is going to wear the blanket of roses on May 2. The No. 2 horse on our list is Pioneerof the Nile, who is being prepped in stout, old-school fashion by the three-time Derby winner, Bob Baffert. Pioneerof the Nile, a son of Empire Maker, has already raced six times, recording three victories including the Grade I Cash Call Futurity as a 2-year-old and the Robert . Lewis Stakes.
What Baffert, and all the California horses, are up against is whether their performances on synthetic tracks will transfer to dirt on the first Saturday in May. Baffert does not particularly like the new surfaces, but he does not plan on traveling east with Pioneerof the Nile — perhaps to the Wood Memorial — to test the colt on dirt.
Instead, he says he will take Pioneerof the Nile to Churchill Downs early and let him adjust to the new surface in the mornings.
Baffert, who is eligible for the Hall of Fame and should be a unanimous selection after all his success, also ascribes to the “nobody knows nothing” theory of picking a Derby winner.
“All I know for sure is that The Nile will run all day and has developed a terrific kick and is improving every day,” he wrote in an e-mail message. “Really love his chances. He is the real deal. Needs racing luck being that he comes from off of it but has tactical speed to stay in range. Love this guy.”
