Kentucky Derby

**BGboothA** · 04-28-13, 10:18 PM

I don't see Mylute having the distance....I love Revolutionary this year and he will more than likely by my top pick.

Some longer shots that I like especially to fill in the back end of the trifecta
Java's War
Frac Daddy
Governer Charlie (could get a nice pace here)

I will be digging into this quite a bit in the early days of the week.

**Rbyrne** · 04-28-13, 10:34 PM

I've heard Governor Charlie has had set backs in training and will not run....I tossed him after I heard he had a problem with his hoof anyways but I think baffert sits this one out

**Easy-Rider 66** · 04-29-13, 06:03 AM

Originally posted by Rbyrne

I've heard Governor Charlie has had set backs in training and will not run....I tossed him after I heard he had a problem with his hoof anyways but I think baffert sits this one out

Yeah, it does look like the Governor is not going to run. Believe Baffert is pointing him toward the Preakness.

**BGboothA** · 04-29-13, 08:51 AM

Originally posted by Rbyrne

I've heard Governor Charlie has had set backs in training and will not run....I tossed him after I heard he had a problem with his hoof anyways but I think baffert sits this one out

Bummer!

**joeyp1222** · 04-29-13, 10:26 AM

BG----watch out here

beware of mylute i think this horse gets in the super somewheres horsevhas been moving forward and gets rosie(she won the oaks last year) im using this horse in exoctics and might do a trifecta partial as a extra ticket mylute with javas war, normandy invasion, verrazano , goldencents with all for maybe a 50 cent triple if available

**Rbyrne** · 04-29-13, 12:25 PM

Looks like we will have a field of 19 this year with baffert sitting out which is fine with me....on a side note Wise Dan will face Point of Entry in the woodford reserve. I wonder which one of these horses goes off as the fav. Who do u think wins?

**nvrlose37** · 04-29-13, 02:03 PM

I do the same thing with six boxed ever since I boxed five in 09 with Mine That Bird but did not do the trifecta box for $20k. Only the exacta for $1k :/

Java's war is def my favorite pick, i got him at 33-1 in a derby future. Also adding are Orb, overanalyze, goldencents, normandy Invasion, palice malice. They may change depending on PP. I will not put the #1 post in the trifecta.

**BGboothA** · 04-29-13, 07:57 PM

Java's war concerns me a little. I read somewhere that he isn't taking well to the Churchill Dirt. I was going to try to find some video of the workout but haven't got around to it yet.

What are peoples thoughts on Frac Daddy coming in from behind to take the last part of the exotics?

**birdmanweezy** · 04-30-13, 12:26 AM

I would go with verrazano revolutionary goldencents orb it'smyluckyday and normandy invasion......I think it's my lucky day has a decent shot of winning

**nvrlose37** · 04-30-13, 02:06 AM

Originally posted by BGboothA

Java's war concerns me a little. I read somewhere that he isn't taking well to the Churchill Dirt. I was going to try to find some video of the workout but haven't got around to it yet.

What are peoples thoughts on Frac Daddy coming in from behind to take the last part of the exotics?

If he goes off at 40-1, it would be a dream. He has a good shot to at least hit the board.

**Easy-Rider 66** · 04-30-13, 03:27 AM

Originally posted by nvrlose37

If he goes off at 40-1, it would be a dream. He has a good shot to at least hit the board.

Can't see Java's War going off anywhere near 40/1. Would guess from about 12 to 20/1.

**mikemca** · 04-30-13, 05:16 AM

Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66

Can't see Java's War going off anywhere near 40/1. Would guess from about 12 to 20/1.

Think he meant Frac Daddy 40-1

**Easy-Rider 66** · 04-30-13, 05:19 AM

Originally posted by mikemca

Think he meant Frac Daddy 40-1

You are correct after reading the post again. Could see that for Frac Daddy.

**BGboothA** · 04-30-13, 08:50 AM

Good ol' mother nature is predicting some serious rain and thunderstorms for Louisville on Friday and Saturday......

Would have been interesting to see what kind of slop money Super99 would have taken, but who are the other sloppy horses out there.

**skw12354** · 04-30-13, 07:53 PM

Revolutionary, Vyjack, and It's my Lucky Day like a sloppy track. Most the horses haven't run on that surface. I noticed this on a free DRF racing form, through horse-races.net. Either Vyjack or It's my Lucky Day would pay pretty well in an exotic, though maybe n

**Jotoole0821** · 04-30-13, 11:03 PM

can you really trust any pletcher trained horse?

**Rbyrne** · 05-01-13, 05:05 PM

The top 5 all drew good post positions...orb 16, Verrazano 14, Goldencents 8, Revolutionary 3

**BGboothA** · 05-01-13, 05:31 PM

Yeah I went back through, I think ItsMyLuckyDay will be my sloppy day pick....Lots more homework to do.

**Madison** · 05-01-13, 06:26 PM

I'm admittedly a dummy but the one horse I feel you can't leave out is Normany Invasion.

**skw12354** · 05-01-13, 07:33 PM

Is it looking like it will probably be rainy for the race? If it's muddy, It's My Lucky Day could be worth considering. So could Revolutionary on the inside with Calvin Borel aboard. On a dry track, I would probably go with stalkers to finish in front (like Normandy Invasion and Orb). Someone with horse racing knowledge once told me that stalkers don't tend to do well on a muddy track. Have to try to find a past performance sheet with post preferences after looking at the weather report there for Fri. and Sat.

**nvrlose37** · 05-01-13, 10:19 PM

Originally posted by skw12354

Is it looking like it will probably be rainy for the race? If it's muddy, It's My Lucky Day could be worth considering. So could Revolutionary on the inside with Calvin Borel aboard. On a dry track, I would probably go with stalkers to finish in front (like Normandy Invasion and Orb). Someone with horse racing knowledge once told me that stalkers don't tend to do well on a muddy track. Have to try to find a past performance sheet with post preferences after looking at the weather report there for Fri. and Sat.

Calvin borail in a wet track? That's supposed to be a horrible idea given the inside will be the most muddy. I know that didnt stop him in 09 and 10 but still.

What i want to know is who will be on the lead in this one. None of the real good contenders run on the lead, save Verrazano. If itsmyluckyday likes the front, he could probably have it at really easy fractions.

**skw12354** · 05-02-13, 12:15 AM

I just saw that It'sMyLuckyDay is an early runner, but now I'm confused about Revolutionary. On the first PP I read, they had him running off the charts on a wet track, but on one that came out today; he's not ever run on mud. On the new one, they had 3 horses that have posted triple digit speeds and finished 1st or 2nd on mud (It'sMyLuckyDay, Palace Malice, and Vyjack). None of those are stalkers. Verrazno and Goldencents are both early runners as well. Tough call.

**mikemca** · 05-02-13, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by skw12354

(It'sMyLuckyDay, Palace Malice, and Vyjack). None of those are stalkers.

All 3 of them are stalkers

**Louisvillekid1** · 05-02-13, 11:43 AM

I'm definitely going to have a ticket boxing 3,8,9,10, & 19...

**no1here** · 05-03-13, 08:45 AM

I like LinesofBattle and itsmyluckyday as shots. Verrazano is the horse to beat and the likely winner. Goldencents and Revolutionary make my written notes and will be used on top. Using Orb but not on top. Goldencents has front speed and most bullets. Revolutionary has never not been the fav unlike any other but has interesting jockey change.

goldencents is the horse to key

**nvrlose37** · 05-03-13, 09:30 AM

Palace malice to me looks like the horse to hit second place, Im gonna key him in second with three others in $10 exactas

**Easy-Rider 66** · 05-03-13, 11:50 AM

The #1 Black Onyx has been scratched.