UK Horse System - Week 19 Day 1

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  • Kev the Brit
    SBR MVP
    • 10-25-09
    • 2027

    #1
    UK Horse System - Week 19 Day 1
    Hi Guys,

    I've never posted picks on a public forum before, so I am slightly nervous. However, I have been successfully using/tracking this system daily since Oct 13 last year (4 months). After 2600 races (back 1 horse with 1 unit every race) it has produced 450 units profit. I didn't find this system in any publication or other resource. It is based on 2 factors: past performances (form) and the BETFAIR betting market. I guess its about value for money rather than the absolute potential of the horse in question. Profit/loss is based on the Betfair Starting Price.

    Although I am about to start Week 19, I will reset the clock for the puposes of this forum. I will post the picks for every UK race every day from today until Mar 7 (see note below), with the exception of Feb 23 and 24. This is 16 days and will amount to approx 320 races. This is approx only 12% of the overall track record so far, so it is quite possible that this snapshot will not reflect the system's achievement. However, the system's 2600 race/4 months test period is a snapshot as well, so who knows what the next 320 races will represent? Anyway, here goes.....

    Note. Last night I did say/typed that I would do this until Mar 17, however a work commitment has arrived on my diary this morning for Mar 8 onwards.

    Timings

    I'm only using this forum because it provides me with a known method of posting timed messages, so there can be no doubt that the picks were selected and posted before or shortly after the race starts. If I ever decide (November at the earliest) to post picks for others to bet on, I will have to find a quicker method of communicating.

    My Posting Protocol

    I'm not a typist. Due to the amount of data and keystrokes, I will post the picks as follows:

    The location of the race be identified by the 1st 3 letters of the name of the track.
    The time of the race will be posted in the am/pm mode (always pm). I will not post the race number, thus avoiding any confusion with the horse identifier.
    The horse will be identified by its Race No (not stalls/post draw No) and the 1st 3 letters of its name, or I will write "TBD" (to be determined).

    Due to the betting market I reserve the right to change the pick at any time, but if I think this might happen I will post a heads up.

    Communicating

    During the racing period I will be very busy and unable to chat. However, before every race I will check my work. I will have this thread open on my pc and I will refresh the page regularly and look out for any genuine query regarding the identifier. Please don't query the prospects of the horse.

    Todays Picks (21 races):

    Sou
    1.50: 3 Rad
    2.20: 5 Kil
    2.50: 8 Tit
    3.25: 11 Spe
    4.00: 7 Lis
    4.30: 5 Tis
    5.00: 6 Mys

    Car
    2.00: 3 Bea
    2.30: 2 Bol
    3.05: 4 Vel
    3.40: 6 My B
    4.10: 3 Ful
    4.40: 5 Lex

    Wol
    2.10: 9 Sup
    2.40: TBD
    3.15: 10 Ara
    3.50: 5 Fiz
    4.20: 4 Xpr
    4.50: 9 Sho
    5.25: TBD
    5.55: Win

    I will post the results shortly after 6.00.

    Regards
    Kev
  • mikemca
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-10-10
    • 10047

    #2
    How did you come up with the 9 in the 2:10 at Wol?



    Just kidding ...GL...The only question I have is do you get fixed prices on Betfair?Meaning when you put your bet in , do you lock in the odds you received?
    Comment
    • Kev the Brit
      SBR MVP
      • 10-25-09
      • 2027

      #3
      Originally posted by mikemca
      How did you come up with the 9 in the 2:10 at Wol?



      Just kidding ...GL...The only question I have is do you get fixed prices on Betfair?Meaning when you put your bet in , do you lock in the odds you received?
      The system's stats are based on the Betfair Starting Price, regardless of any odds I can lock in for my own benefit.
      Comment
      • Kev the Brit
        SBR MVP
        • 10-25-09
        • 2027

        #4
        late change Car 2.00 Pic
        Comment
        • Kev the Brit
          SBR MVP
          • 10-25-09
          • 2027

          #5
          poss change Wol 2.10
          Last edited by Kev the Brit; 02-18-13, 09:12 AM.
          Comment
          • Kev the Brit
            SBR MVP
            • 10-25-09
            • 2027

            #6
            no change Wolv 2.10 Sup
            Comment
            • mikemca
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 03-10-10
              • 10047

              #7
              Originally posted by Kev the Brit
              The system's stats are based on the Betfair Starting Price, regardless of any odds I can lock in for my own benefit.

              You don't think that's a huge advantage in a fluctuating market?
              Comment
              • Kev the Brit
                SBR MVP
                • 10-25-09
                • 2027

                #8
                Wol 2.40 11 Bra
                Last edited by Kev the Brit; 02-18-13, 09:44 AM.
                Comment
                • Kev the Brit
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-25-09
                  • 2027

                  #9
                  Originally posted by mikemca
                  You don't think that's a huge advantage in a fluctuating market?
                  Once I know the pick (before the race starts), I place a bet using the SP button. If I don't know which horse is the pick I have to wait until the SP is known (immediately after the start) and I then use the odds at that time (usually very close either way to the SP)
                  Comment
                  • Kev the Brit
                    SBR MVP
                    • 10-25-09
                    • 2027

                    #10
                    Further to my last post, ref Picks Milan (Car 2.00) the tentaive choice this mornin was Bea, but just before the start the market showed Pic as the horse to bet on. Normally I would have bet on it as soon as that happened but I spent a little time posting here. I got Pic at 16.50 instead of 32.0. Its is very rare for the system that a horse is backed just after the start and then wins at 32.0. Tit just won at BSP 8.00
                    Comment
                    • Kev the Brit
                      SBR MVP
                      • 10-25-09
                      • 2027

                      #11
                      Wol 3.15 change to 1 Buc
                      Comment
                      • Kev the Brit
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-25-09
                        • 2027

                        #12
                        Sou 4.30 change to 12 Tim
                        Comment
                        • Kev the Brit
                          SBR MVP
                          • 10-25-09
                          • 2027

                          #13
                          Well before the race started the system changed Sou 4.30 from the winner (5 Tis @ 13.5) to Timeforagin. I thought I posted the change but apparently not.

                          Now I see it.
                          Last edited by Kev the Brit; 02-18-13, 12:06 PM.
                          Comment
                          • harthebar
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 12-09-11
                            • 15709

                            #14
                            whats the betfair...isnt that calif. ? mike or kev what tracks are these england or aust. ...how are we to bet them....
                            Originally posted by Kev the Brit
                            Well before the race started the system changed Sou 4.30 from the winner (5 Tis @ 13.5) to Timeforagin. I thought I posted the change but apparently not.

                            Now I see it.
                            Comment
                            • Kev the Brit
                              SBR MVP
                              • 10-25-09
                              • 2027

                              #15
                              Review of the Day

                              21 races @ 1 unit per race

                              2 winners:

                              1. Car 2.00: No5 Picks Milan @ Betfair SP odds 32.00 (see Note)
                              2. Sou 2.50: No8 Titchwood @ Betfair SP odds 8.00

                              Note. The initially selected horse on form factors, No3 Bea, drifted in the market and was not higher than Picks Milan until just before the start. Its a matter of opinion whether or not I could have got a price at or close to the SP if I hadn't posted on sbr before placing the bet. As it was, I got a matched bet at odds 16.5 just after the start. Given the circumstances, I think it is reasonable that the stats should reflect the practicality of betfair bets at or just after the start. I'm therefore recording system record winning odds of 23.00 (to compensate for the time taken to post to sbr).

                              Units returned: 23 + 8 = 31
                              Units bet: 21.
                              Profit: 10 units
                              Av ROI 47% per bet

                              Regards
                              Kev
                              Comment
                              • Kev the Brit
                                SBR MVP
                                • 10-25-09
                                • 2027

                                #16
                                Originally posted by harthebar
                                whats the betfair...isnt that calif. ? mike or kev what tracks are these england or aust. ...how are we to bet them....
                                Its UK racing. Go to www.betfair.com and select horse racing - todays card.
                                I don't know if you can access betfair in the USA, but I would be interested in knowing anyway.
                                Comment
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