Time for some future wagering. Here is what I took and why

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  • Lippsman
    SBR Sharp
    • 08-29-08
    • 346

    #1
    Time for some future wagering. Here is what I took and why
    It was time so I struck. I see teams that overhyped and under hyped. Favs that should be so and wagered on and favs that shouldn't be touched. You all know how I like those dogs, but sometimes you get very good value on a fav also.

    Let's start off with the division winners. Only two here, there are juiced....well one of them are. But a winner is a winner.

    Habs to win the Northeast -135


    Now on other boards you may have seen me say that I thought the Habs were being overhyped and everyone was just getting excited because of the 100th year. Well.....I am not backing off of that, I think you can find very good prices fading the habs at spots this year. But they will still win the Northeast

    Boston – They really didn’t do anything in the offseason, beside adding Ryder. They have a good young team that played over their heads against the Habs in the playoffs. They will make the playoffs but they won’t be enough to challenge for the division lead.

    Buffalo – Free agency has just killed this team last year. Actually considering what they lost it wasn’t a horrible year for them. Lots of young talent here, they will steal some games but Miller can only do so much back there. This team is no threat for a divisional title.

    Ottawa – Oh the Sens, half the team was shipped off including that wacky goaltender that is now in Russia. But wait, they have Gerber back there now. Yeah, riiiiiight. That will win them a division. Think we will end up seeing a platoon with him and Auld. Heatley, Spezza are both big scoring threats. But how long will everyone stay healthy. Buffalo should be fighting Boston for that 2nd spot this year.

    Toronto – Oh dear….where to start. The Bruins of Canada. Well that’s actually insulting the B’s this year. The Leafs had their fire sale by dumping all of those huge worthless contracts in the off-season. This will be a big rebuilding year for them. Poor Ron Wilson, c’mon man, you didn’t need a job this badly did you? You would have better luck coaching the Raiders !!!! Nabokov is going to get a huge workout this year.

    The Leafs will have no D and be an end to end team. Now I want you to take note. Toronto plays a more closed style on the road that actually kept them games last year. With all of the roster moves we will have to see if they keep it up. Toronto will not will not win the division. In fact they will be looking up from the very bottom.

    Montreal – A good offensive team got better in the off-season. Anytime you add Tanguay it’s a great off-season. With Kovalev’s scoring last year and Markov firing those rockets from the blue line you are going to see a good share of 4 goal nights for the Habs. Price will have to keep up the great work of last year. He’s still very young, so expect him to stumble a few times, but with the offensive firepower, it will carry him on those off nights.

    ---------------------------------------------

    Detroit to win the Central division -260. (Now -300)


    Yes, this the juicefest wager. But if I know a team will win the division then I will lay the huge lumber.

    Nashville – This team did less than Boston, in fact they did less than any other team. Between legal issues with one of the owners and players leaving in droves, there is not much for Barry Trotz to work with this year. They do still have Arnott, Erat and Legwant still in the fold.

    Don’t forget that Radulov bolted for Russia. He’s still considered Nashville property. Arnott and Dumont will have to put up the brunt of scoring for the Preds, but other skaters will have to step up.

    On the D side of things it’s just unproven. Hamhuis is on the down side of things, Weber was injured for most of the season so we will just have to see how he does. Ellis did play well last year, in fact he played over his head I believe. Just don’t see great things for the Preds, but don’t forget that they give the Wings a hard game almost every time .

    Chicago – My kind of town… This team is the darling of a great deal of talking heads. Injuries just buried them last year. This year they will try to bury everyone else with a great deal of one ice and one huge off ice pickup. Huge pickups of Campbell and Huet. Add to that picking up Scotty Bowman for the front office you gotta’ have a better season.

    Havalat is a great player but just can’t seem to get healthy. When that guy is healthy though, he is a highlight reel. Kane looks to have MVP written on him, but let’s see how he does with a year under his belt and teams looking at that tape. Don’t forget that Toews was injured a bit also last season but put up great numbers when he was playing.

    The Wall was put on waivers today, so there will be no question that Huet will be the full time starting goaltender. Chicago will be a team to contend with, but it will be the other teams contending for 3rd place, because Chicago will have 2nd wrapped up

    Columbus – These guys will make the playoffs……sometime, but not this year. There was a huge roster change over the off-season. Brule and Zherdev were shipped off. Hainsey gone also. That one hurt a bit. Nash is still in the fold along with LeClaire. So they still have a solid scored with a solid netminder. Commodore, Tyutin and Backman should make that blue line better. But it will take time for things to meld.

    On the offensive side of things, Umberger, Torres and Huselius were brought in to shake things up. Torres missed the last half of the season with a knee injury. He really didn’t do much before the injury. Umberger is another that hasn’t ever been a big goal scorer with just 13 goals in 74 games with Philly last year. While things do look better for the Jackets they will pretty much stay at the 80pt total they had last year.

    St.Louis – Oh you poor Blues fans. It’s going to be another long year for you. This team is rebuilding every single year. The sad thing is that the Blues started out so well and just tanked in the last half of the season. I made stockpiles of money by fading them the last 20 games or so. To add insult to injury, Erik Johnson their very good defenseman tore a couple of ligaments playing…..are you ready for this. Golf !!! He is expected to be out all season.

    Kariya and Tkachuk should be the workhorses for scoring this year. They are going to have blue line trouble and that means that Manny Legace will be overworked once again. That was the main reason the Blues tanked the last half of the season. The Blues did get Chris Mason from the Preds to help out. That will help out Legace and very possible that Mason wrestles the starting job from him.

    Detroit- Defending Stanley Cup champs. It’s tough to repeat, but this team can do it. Talk about the rich getting richer. They sign Hossa from the Pens, also signing Conklin to back up Osgood. Also the Wings locked up Brad Stuart who played very well for them after they picked him up late last year. The only loss was Hasek who retired for the 2nd time.

    There are a couple of things to watch for though. First of all this team is getting a bit of age on them. But with the defensive style they play it’s not a big deal. They don’t allow a great deal of shots. The game they play is D and they play it well. But if you want’ to try and run and gun with them you will lose that battle also.

    2nd a problem that will haunt them this year and bit time next year is all that talent they have down on the farm that is not being used.

    Ah, I almost forget that Dallas Drake hung up the skates also.

    While I don’t think the Wings will match that 115 they hung last year. They will have more than enough to win the division.
  • Lippsman
    SBR Sharp
    • 08-29-08
    • 346

    #2
    Point total wagers

    TB un 91.5


    I know the Lightning picked up some big free agents. But I don’t care how good they are, there is no way this team has a 21 pt turnaround from last year. Now when I say some free agents I mean some free agents. Make that 16 FA’s. Some nice trades and a signing that locks up Lecavalier for the rest of his playing days. TB raided the Pens by picking up Roberts, Malone and Recchi. Well Recchi wasn’t part of the raid, but he did play for the Pens last year.

    They also picked up Kolzig from the Caps, defensemen Carle and Meszaros to play in front of him. What does hurt though is losing Boyle, he wasn’t a factor because of injuries last year, but he is a very good player. He will help out the Sharks big time.

    Personally I think the big pickup was last year when they picked up Smith. Now he did play better with Dallas then he did with TB. With Dallas he was 21-9 with a SV% of .906. He goes to TB and it jumps to 3-10 with a SV% of .893. Yeah, nice little difference there.

    But I will not hold that against him with what was in front of him last year. The first two lines will be solid for TB. There is no reason this team shouldn’t compete for the title right??? Well, there are too many cooks in the kitchen and a coach that has been away from the bench too long. It will take time for things to gel, even if they do gel. I like Smith, but is he really a No. 1 Goaltender?

    Bottom line is TB will be better, but they sure won’t be 21 pts better.
    -------------------------------------------------

    Kings un 77.5 Pts


    Terry Murray will have his hands full this year with a young rebuilding project. Well let’s call it the John Tavares project. That’s the kid everyone wants next year. They actually spent some cash by signing Jarret Stoll. The Kings did some major salary cutting by axing, Blake, Torton, Willsie and Visnovsky. The Blue line is just a rag tag group this year.

    Doughty and Hickey are in for a long season, but the question mark is Jack Johnson. Don’t forget that the Canes traded him to LA before the season started last year. Rumor was that he was never going to take the ice for the Canes anyway, so they figured to get something for him.

    They were hit by the injury bug last pre-season just like they have this year. Johnson didn’t exactly tear it up last year, only racking up 11 pts in 74 games. Much more was expected from him.

    On the offensive side of things Anze Kopitar is the gun for the Kings. He scored 32 goals and had 45 helpers. He will be the man for them once again this year. Brown should get better after scoring 22 last year. You notice I am leaving the last cog to the 1st line scoring. Patrick O’ Sullivan. He is still holding out for a shorter contract. Yes you read that correctly. A shorter contract. The Kings are offering 3 years and he wants a shorter one. Don’t be surprised to see him dealt the first week of the season.

    Now on the goaltending side….LaBarbera was the workhorse last year by starting 42 games, but only winning 17 of them, hanging a 3.00 GAA……Ouch.. But on the plus side he had a .910 Save %. That shows you he is a good goaltender, he just gets no help at all. Now backing him up is Erik Ersberg. This guy looked great in the few games he played.

    14 games played showing great instincts in the net. He had a 2.47 GAA, .927 SV% going 6-5-3. This might end up being a platoon situation this year. Also the Kings have Jonathan Bernier waiting in the Wings. I am sure he will get some starts this year. Why not have your young kid goaltender playing with the rest of them. He was sent to Manchester of the AHL on Monday.

    The Kings had 71 pts last year with a vet presence. I don’t see them getting more wins with a young group cutting their teeth. With proper management and structure, this is a team to watch out for in the next couple of years.

    But not today.
    ---------------------------------------------------------
    Coyotes ov 82.5


    The Phoenix is rising this year. The Great one hasn’t exactly put a playoff team on the ice since he’s been behind the bench for the past 3 years. But he is the great one, and oh…..part owner of the team, so he gets a free pass. Plus they ended the year on a high note and won some nice cash for the Yote backers. This year though, the ‘Yotes made some very good off season moves.

    Starting by picking up Olli Jokinen and picking up muscle with Fedoruk and McGrattan. They were just getting pushed around by the big boys of the Division, (Ducks and Sharks). Something to keep in the back of your head is that Olli cost them Ballard and Boynton, Ballard not a huge loss only scoring 21 pts and Boynton only scoring 12. So a very nice trade. But this will play into some defensive problems this year

    Olli will put a spark in the first line with Doan and Mueller scoreing 49 goals between them last year. The kids for the ‘Yotes will make the difference. They scored a huge deal in drafting Tikhonov, it was a bit of a chance being they might not even be able sign him. But not only did they sign him they signed him to an entry level deal. Talk about a steal !!! He’s considered 4th line material right now, but mark my word, that he will be 2nd line skating before the year is over.

    Now the thing that concerns me. That blue line. Jovanovski will be the main point man out there. He isn’t getting major penalty minutes anymore. Last year he had 51 pts in 80 games. He actually had an injury free year. It’s been a good while since that has happened. Paired with him will be Derek Morris.

    He actually had a plus rating last year, not bad for that Phoenix team. Michalek and Jones will be bringing up the 2nd line. Michalek your basic stay at home type of guy and Jones will need to step things up being he’s only played 45 games the past two years and has a -27 over that time.

    Now the even bigger bright spot for the Yotes. They finally have an honest to goodness starting goaltender. They had just a huge pickup by getting Ilya Bryzgalov from the Ducks on waivers. This guy was the reason the Ducks were quacking dollars for the backers. He ended up with an 28-25-6 record with an 2.44 GAA and a very nice .920 SV%. Now with that D he will have to stand on his head a good bit. Backing him up is another good goaltender in Mikael Tellqvist. He had a .908 SV% himself. He really stepped up his game last year. He had the best GAA and SV% in his career.

    This team is on the upswing and you are getting a gift considering how much this team has improved and they only have to get the same 83pt total they had last year.

    -----------------------------------------------------------

    Caps ov 93.5 and +155 to win the Southeast division

    The Caps boast the best complete player in the league in the likes of Alex Ovechkin. This guy took home tons of hardware last year. With Backstrom you have some serious scoring there. Injuries and team that just didn’t have the fire it should of, got off to a horrible start and dug themselves a huge hole last year. Glen Hanlon was given the boot. Turn the page with Bruce Boudreau taking over. Talk about a huge change. Ovechkin was a different player, the wide open style was in full swing and the Caps took off. This year the Caps are starting out healthy with plenty of scoring.

    That scoring can sure turn games around quickly and last year the Caps had 17 come from behind wins. Not only did the Caps get better but they added to the core by picking up Fedorov and Cooke. There was one other pickup at the deadline that I will talk about a bit later. Well he had a cup of coffee with them.

    The big O isn’t the only threat the Caps have and that’s where things will get a bit dicey for teams trying to defend them. Throw up a couple of shadows against Ovechkin, then you have to worry about Kozlov lighting you up. Even though he did have a dropoff year. Michael Nylander seems to always have rumors about him leaving but I just don’t see it.

    There is just too much talent to walk away from. He was pretty banged up last year, he missed the last half of the season. From what I have seen so far this pre-season he’s getting back to the style I have been used to seeing him play. He should be a very big part of things this year.

    Fedorov added 13 pts in the 18 regular season games and 5 pts in the first round of the playoffs. Add that to the vetern leadership you have a huge presence in the locker room and on the ice. Don’t foget that this guy has 3 cups, Stanley Cups that is. You just can’t stress the importance of something like that.

    Now onto the blue line which BTW, it looks like Fedorov may be spending some time there also. Mike Green is the D stud with the Caps. He had 18 goals and 56 points last year. Look for both of those numbers to improve. But that’s where the Caps D ends. Schultz , Morrisonn and Poti all have to step things up a bit.

    Now onto the late season coffee drinker. Huet was picked up at the deadline kicking Ollie to a backup roll. Honestly Huet was a huge reason the Caps made it as far as they did. But the Caps decided to let him go after Chicago offered him the moon to start there.

    Yeah, they knew he would be starting the whole time. Just waiting to knock the wall down later on. Theodore was picked up from the Avs in the offseason. He really picked up his game for the Avs last year, but is he still ready for prime time? I really don’t think so, he’s not a goaltender that does well with a great deal of shots and open style. Both two things the Caps will be doing all year.

    Johnson should get some starts also, maybe 20 this year unless Theodore really melts down. The Caps will have some games where they will need to score 4 and 5 goals to win, but if there is a team that could do it most nights the Caps are that team.
    ---------------------------------------------------------

    Habs ov 99.5


    Talk about a pressure situation this year, the Habs are celebrating their 100th year. Anything less than a 25th banner will be considered a disappointment. They do have a shot at it with everything falling perfectly into place. This teams 3rd line could be starting on some teams. Starting with the pickups on the offseason. Alex Tanguay from the Flames, he pretty much burnt his bridge with Keenan. (Keenan, that’s for another writeup)

    He dropped off scoring wise last year, to 58 points from 81 the year before. But being on the same line with Plekanec and Kovalev should take care of that little problem. Also picked up was Robert Lang from the Hawks. A veteran presence that will keep things on the straight and narrow.

    He had 54 points for a very middle of the road Hawks team last year. It should be interesting to see him between the Kostisyn brothers on the 2nd line. Or at least that’s where I think he will be. I’m not sure how Koivu will handle being knocked down a line. It will really test his character, but that’s the great thing about this team. If someone starts to falter there is no shortage of players that can step up.

    With some of the players being knocked around last year, Georges Larque was signed for some protection muscle. That should give the guys a bit more icespace out there.

    Kovalev found his scoring touch again last year. Racking up 84 points, the most he has had since the 2000 season when he was with the Pens. I don’t know if I expect that from him again this year, but 30 goals and 40 asst. is not out of the question and would fit in quite well with what is around him.

    On the D side of things Markov will head things since Steit bolted for the Isles. I’m still trying to figure that one out. The Habs are good on D through all of their lines, even though Steit’s shot will be missed on the PP the Habs have one of the best PP units this year.

    Now onto the net side of things. Huet was shipped off to the Caps for a 2nd round selection. Not a bad move for the Caps, well that’s if they actually kept him. The world was put on Carey Price. He proved his worth in the regular season being the No.1, but the playoffs were another story. He wasn’t horrible, but he sure wasn’t at the same level. But that was valuable time for him to mature. Don’t forget that this kid is only 21. As long as he doesn’t implode the Habs are going to be a very strong team this year.

    Backing him up is another good ‘tender in Jaroslav Halak, this guy could be more than good. He could be great going by the short time he has had in net. 6 games last year he had a GAA of 2.11 and a SV% of .934 !!! That’s starting for a good deal of teams. Over the last two years he’s played 22 games with a 2.71 GAA and a .913 SV%. Include in that 20 games started and 3 SO’s. So if Price falters at all the Habs have someone very good they can put in net.

    Marc Dennis is also on the roster, so it’s not really sure what’s going to happen here. I guess it’s possible that Halak could be moved, but I would be more inclined to use Denis as trade bait for maybe another defensive player.

    I have warmed up to the Habs a bit more in the past few weeks. Stll don’t think they will win the cup, but they will take down many teams in the process of trying to do so
    -------------------------------------------------------

    Flames un 94.5


    Ok here ya go, the Flames are getting as much love as TB this year. Let me tell you why that love is misplaced. It lays on one guys shoulders that will keep them away from it and it’s not the guy you think I am going to say.

    The Flames took a hit by losing Tanguay and Huselius in the offseason. They just didn’t knock enough heads for Keenan. Also Nolan and Godard took off for the mid-west and east coast. I’m not sure what exactly what they are going to get with the addition of Cammalleri, he had a drop off year with the Kings although he only played 63 games. His SH% dipped to 9.05.

    Also picked up was Rene Bourque from the Hawks. Another player that really doesn’t bring any scoring to the team. Andre Roy was brought in for muscle and Curtis Glencross for a set up winger. I can’t wait till Calgary plays the Oilers. The crowd will enjoy razzing Glencross. But this is another guy that isn’t really going to do anything for the Flames.

    One last man added to the roster. Todd Bertuzzi. Still scratching my head on this one. So do you want more PK’s ? Is that really what you are looking for? Picking up a player that has a target on his back and just reeks of getting ticky tack penalty calls because of who he is. A huge thumbs down from me on this one.

    Now onto the guys that will be scoring for Calgary. Their main man Jarome Iginla. The problem for the past few years has been getting people to play with him. He has averaged 96 points the last two seasons. Langkow is his usual set up guy, Now Cammallerimay on that line also will give other teams fits if they just key on Iginla. Cammalleri can score some goals. He just may get back up to his usual numbers if the clique clicks.

    Conroy is Conroy, he is just kind of there now. Really thought he would have been moved also. The D is the same core group, Aucoin will anchor things with Phaneur once again. I think you will see a bit better D this year. The D had a year and another 1st round exit to get things right with each other.

    Now onto the shoulders that I think will sink the Flames this year.

    Mikka Kiprusoff, yep that’s what I said….errr…..wrote.

    For 3 years now his numbers have been going down

    2003 GAA 1.7 SA% .933
    2004 Lockout
    2005 GAA 2.07 SA% .923
    2006 GAA 2.46 SA% .917
    2007 GAA 2.69 SA% .906


    See a pattern here? And what did Sutter/Keenan do to the team this year? Get more physical players, a goon and about 100 more PM’s this year. Yeah, that’s what the Flames need. They have no scoring, haven’t had any since the last Cup run and get guys that don’t score and will cost them more goals.

    The Flames have gotten past the first round just once in 17 years and after this year it will be 18 years. It’s time for a change in Calgry and I believe after this season the core will be broken up. It’s just been way too long.

    Calgary just has to stay at the same point count as last year and this wager cashes. Do you really see anything that will get that point count higher? I sure don’t, in fact I see it going lower. I will say mid to high 80’s lower

    There you have it.

    That’s it, hope everyone has a great year wagering and watching the best sport out there.

    Comment
    • avssakic
      SBR MVP
      • 12-12-07
      • 1795

      #3
      being from Phoenix I like your write up on the Yotes. Hopefully they do well this year!
      Comment
      • VegasVic
        SBR Hustler
        • 09-07-08
        • 64

        #4
        Lippsman…enjoyed the writeup and your perspective on the NHL. Just a couple of comments on your plays.

        As I wrote on another forum….
        Getting Detroit at -260 to win the Central is like investing in a 6 month CD …….at 38% interest.

        Only thing that can beat you is the team plane going down.


        I’m not sure what to expect from Tampa Bay but I do agree with your assessment that they haven’t done enough in the offseason to merit a 21 point turnaround from last season. Definitely a knee jerk reaction by the linesmakers due to the public jumping all over the Bolts when the early Stanley Cup numbers first came out. Tampa was listed at 50/1 and promptly got pounded to half that number.


        I’m not with you on the Kings only because the number is spot on IMO. L.A. should struggle but at 77.5 you don’t have much room for error. If I was going to invest in a bad team being worse than the low number posted I’d be all over N.Y. Islanders under 74.5. This team shouldn't reach 70.

        With you 100% with the Yotes over 82.5

        With you 100% with the Caps over 93.5 as well. I thought about taking them at 17/1 to win the cup as well but at 17/1 hedging is only possible if they win the east. Instead I unloaded on them at 93.5 because if they make the playoffs they will need 94 points. If they don’t make the playoffs, I deserve to lose my sizable bet.

        Let's pull this thread up in April so you can gloat!
        GL
        Last edited by VegasVic; 10-03-08, 05:43 PM.
        Comment
        • VegasVic
          SBR Hustler
          • 09-07-08
          • 64

          #5
          How solid does Tampa Bay under 91.5 look after the first two games of 82?
          Comment
          • Lippsman
            SBR Sharp
            • 08-29-08
            • 346

            #6
            Originally posted by VegasVic
            How solid does Tampa Bay under 91.5 look after the first two games of 82?
            Man you said that right !!! I know there is still 80 games left, but from what I saw it was exactly what I expected. The interesting thing though is the D that was played. Smith and Ollie did have a good deal to do with that though.

            That O is going to take time to gel and adding in the lag of playing overseas is going to hinder it even more. I forgot to mention that in my writeup. In fact everyone should take a hard look at fading those 4 teams the first couple weeks of the season.

            Last edited by Lippsman; 10-07-08, 11:09 AM.
            Comment
            • TodaysAction
              Restricted User
              • 08-01-08
              • 12762

              #7
              Nice write ups. BOL.
              Comment
              • dwaechte
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 08-27-07
                • 5481

                #8
                Comment
                • Lippsman
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 08-29-08
                  • 346

                  #9
                  Thanks guys

                  Comment
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