Assessing my season point totals this year has two themes that helped lead to it‘s conclusion. Both revolve around the fact that there will be 80% more inter-conference games played by all teams this year as opposed to last.
22% of every team’s schedule will now be played outside of their own conference. In my eyes this is a decided advantage for the Western Conference as they have proven to be the stronger of the two. This is evidenced by the fact they have out pointing the Eastern Conference in each of the last three seasons. They have averaged 14 points more each year since the lockout. This year that number should grow even more with the addition of more games.
The other theory I have dealing with games played between conferences is they tend not to go to OT with the regularity of games played within one’s conference or certainly within one’s own division. Needless to say that all division games are played much closer to vest and tend to make up the bulk of every team’s three point games. Games played outside the conference tend to be more open with fewer ending up with a extra five minutes.
All this means less points will be tallied as a whole. For instance in 2005-06 and 2006-07 the league tallied 2741 points. By no coincidence there was exactly 281 OT games played for both years. Last season OT games dropped by nine to 272 and of course the league’s point total did as well to 2732. This year I believe the OT games will drop again and I set my number at 261. This leads me to my prediction that the NHL will have 2721 points recorded.
Now it’s just a matter of figuring out how those 2721 points will be divided. Last year the Western Conference was 22 points better than the east. This year I think that number grows exponentially to 73 points. A bold projection but one I feel is justified when you look at the unbalanced talent level of the two conferences as a whole.
I break down those 2721 points into 1324 for the east and 1397 for the west.
My recommendations when books finally come out with their numbers is to look for unders in the east and overs in the west.
Atlantic
Pittsburgh--------------103
Philadelphia--------------96
New Jersey--------------91
NY Rangers--------------90
NY Islanders-------------65
Northeast
Montreal----------------103
Buffalo------------------90
Ottawa------------------90
Boston------------------89
Toronto-----------------79
Southeast
Washington-------------102
Tampa Bay--------------86
Carolina-----------------86
Florida------------------83
Atlanta-----------------71
Central
Detroit-----------------113
Chicago-----------------91
Columbus----------------90
Nashville-----------------83
St Louis-----------------82
Northwest
Edmonton---------------95
Calgary-----------------93
Vancouver--------------93
Minnesota---------------90
Colorado----------------89
Pacific
Anaheim----------------105
San Jose---------------104
Dallas------------------101
Phoenix-----------------89
Los Angeles-------------79
22% of every team’s schedule will now be played outside of their own conference. In my eyes this is a decided advantage for the Western Conference as they have proven to be the stronger of the two. This is evidenced by the fact they have out pointing the Eastern Conference in each of the last three seasons. They have averaged 14 points more each year since the lockout. This year that number should grow even more with the addition of more games.
The other theory I have dealing with games played between conferences is they tend not to go to OT with the regularity of games played within one’s conference or certainly within one’s own division. Needless to say that all division games are played much closer to vest and tend to make up the bulk of every team’s three point games. Games played outside the conference tend to be more open with fewer ending up with a extra five minutes.
All this means less points will be tallied as a whole. For instance in 2005-06 and 2006-07 the league tallied 2741 points. By no coincidence there was exactly 281 OT games played for both years. Last season OT games dropped by nine to 272 and of course the league’s point total did as well to 2732. This year I believe the OT games will drop again and I set my number at 261. This leads me to my prediction that the NHL will have 2721 points recorded.
Now it’s just a matter of figuring out how those 2721 points will be divided. Last year the Western Conference was 22 points better than the east. This year I think that number grows exponentially to 73 points. A bold projection but one I feel is justified when you look at the unbalanced talent level of the two conferences as a whole.
I break down those 2721 points into 1324 for the east and 1397 for the west.
My recommendations when books finally come out with their numbers is to look for unders in the east and overs in the west.
Atlantic
Pittsburgh--------------103
Philadelphia--------------96
New Jersey--------------91
NY Rangers--------------90
NY Islanders-------------65
Northeast
Montreal----------------103
Buffalo------------------90
Ottawa------------------90
Boston------------------89
Toronto-----------------79
Southeast
Washington-------------102
Tampa Bay--------------86
Carolina-----------------86
Florida------------------83
Atlanta-----------------71
Central
Detroit-----------------113
Chicago-----------------91
Columbus----------------90
Nashville-----------------83
St Louis-----------------82
Northwest
Edmonton---------------95
Calgary-----------------93
Vancouver--------------93
Minnesota---------------90
Colorado----------------89
Pacific
Anaheim----------------105
San Jose---------------104
Dallas------------------101
Phoenix-----------------89
Los Angeles-------------79
yns/Price can progress as expected (or even not regress) then you can assume that Montreal will be atop the standings in the East. Just so much team depth and thats what you need to rack up points in the regular season. 