DG's 2011-2012 NHL Picks

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  • DennisGreen
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-27-08
    • 18369

    #1
    DG's 2011-2012 NHL Picks
    Figured I would set up my thread for the upcoming season seeing as pre-season is only a couple weeks away now

    I will probably dabble a bit in preseason this year as well if I see some lines I like. Had a disappointing year last year but still managed to come out ahead thankfully.

    To those who are regulars, welcome back and to those people who are new welcome. I am a hockey fanatic and have been betting hockey fairly seriously over the last two seasons. I know the league inside and out and that has been both an asset and a detriment to me at times I have killed half the homer inside myself but am still prone to picking my Canucks way too often.

    I have learned a lot over the last two seasons and really have high hopes for myself this year. I will probably be cutting down on my total volume of plays this year as I think I picked way too many games last year. I doubled my total volume of plays from 2009-2010 to 2010-2011 and it showed in my overall stats so I will probably be somewhere between 300-600 total plays this year.

    Here are my overall stats in the last two seasons for those interested:

    FINAL 2009-2010 NHL 229-174-8 (56.82%) $5106.64
    FINAL 2010-2011 NHL 446-438-26 (50.45%) $1040.00

    My betting size is usually between 1-5 units. Each unit for me is to win $100 on favorites and $100 straight on dogs.

    Ex:
    VAN (-120) (Would be $120 to win $100)
    FLA (+125) (Would be $100 to win $125)

    I am on Twitter if that's more convenient for anyone who wants to follow me throughout the season. My name on there is SonicTILT

    My only goal for the year is to make $5,000+. It's a realistic figure and definitely doable. Ideally I would like to hit 55%+ but I know this can be tough over a long season especially when picking some ugly dogs throughout the year as well as a high overall volume of plays.

    I feel most comfortable on totals as opposed to ML's and PL's but I will have a good mix this year. I will probably bet a few futures before the season starts as well as some player props on a weekly basis. If you are gonna follow me I recommend you get a book that has regulation (-0.5) bets. I use a lot of these to eliminate chalk and get some good value on favorites. Live betting can also be very profitable when picking your spots so if you can get a book with both of these it will be easier to follow all of my plays.

    35 days and closing to the start of the regular season and only a couple weeks until pre-season starts. GL to everyone this season, let's have some fun and make some money

  • leafs_ducks
    SBR MVP
    • 10-22-09
    • 3147

    #2
    Can't wait for the new season! Good luck this year! Ill definitely be a regular here!
    Comment
    • xraygord
      SBR MVP
      • 09-18-09
      • 2599

      #3
      Soooo looking forward to this season Dennis. I will be here all the way through.

      GO JETS GO!
      Comment
      • SlimZ
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 03-07-11
        • 647

        #4
        Cant wait been itching like a bitch for this season too start
        Comment
        • OnTheRise23
          SBR Sharp
          • 12-09-10
          • 476

          #5
          GL this season man. Looking forward to it.
          Comment
          • Just Enough
            SBR MVP
            • 10-15-09
            • 4187

            #6
            My man DG. Good luck this year brotha. Can't wait. By the way, nice avatar. Lawrie is a beast!!!! Glad I drafted him in my fantasy baseball league.
            Comment
            • DennisGreen
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-27-08
              • 18369

              #7
              Originally posted by Just Enough
              My man DG. Good luck this year brotha. Can't wait. By the way, nice avatar. Lawrie is a beast!!!! Glad I drafted him in my fantasy baseball league.
              Same to you my friend. Hope we both get off to better starts this year. As for Lawrie yeah man I absolutely love the guy. He's Canadian, he plays with unreal passion and he is beasting for me in fantasy baseballs. What a pick up
              Comment
              • DennisGreen
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-27-08
                • 18369

                #8
                Thanks all for the well wishes also, good luck to everyone this year. Looking forward to some hockey again
                Comment
                • 815Sox
                  SBR MVP
                  • 09-13-10
                  • 1078

                  #9
                  Really looking forward to it DG! I haven't been here in awhile, but I have to tell you that your Canucks totally shocked me. They were my preseason Cup winning pick and I am a Hawks fan, so it was a little hard for me to pick. I don't really get into the Rivalry stuff as much though.

                  Hope the baby is doing well! I am about to become an uncle for the first time and am pretty excited.
                  Comment
                  • DennisGreen
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 11-27-08
                    • 18369

                    #10
                    Originally posted by 815Sox
                    Really looking forward to it DG! I haven't been here in awhile, but I have to tell you that your Canucks totally shocked me. They were my preseason Cup winning pick and I am a Hawks fan, so it was a little hard for me to pick. I don't really get into the Rivalry stuff as much though. Hope the baby is doing well! I am about to become an uncle for the first time and am pretty excited.
                    Yeah I was impressed with the Nucks season but am still pretty bitter with the way they went out. Those games in Boston were pathetic, they had their asses handed to them. I'm hoping Luongo tears his ACL pretty quick here so Schneider can take the #1 job for good

                    Congrats on becoming an Uncle soon! My kid is doing well, 7 months now. Time truly flies by and it's great being a parent. Can't wait until he's old enough to skate, I will be building him an ice rink in our backyard for sure
                    Comment
                    • 815Sox
                      SBR MVP
                      • 09-13-10
                      • 1078

                      #11
                      My dad built my sisters and I an ice rink every year. Complete with a goal as well so I could go work on my game. Lots of fun, my friends and teammates and I had some pretty fun games out there.

                      I thought the Canucks would trade Lou or Schneider this offseason, surprised they haven't. I would have kept Corey as the starter and moved Lou somewhere. There is always some team that is willing to pick up a contract in the NHL. Teams had to spend money in the off-season so they were looking for thos big contracts.
                      Comment
                      • julio_cat
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-05-09
                        • 1208

                        #12
                        Good luck this season, hopefully you will start strong.

                        Any contest either by you or xxx for this season?
                        Comment
                        • DennisGreen
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 11-27-08
                          • 18369

                          #13
                          Originally posted by 815Sox
                          My dad built my sisters and I an ice rink every year. Complete with a goal as well so I could go work on my game. Lots of fun, my friends and teammates and I had some pretty fun games out there.

                          I thought the Canucks would trade Lou or Schneider this offseason, surprised they haven't. I would have kept Corey as the starter and moved Lou
                          somewhere. There is always some team that is willing to pick up a contract in the NHL. Teams had to spend money in the off-season so they were looking for those big contracts.
                          Florida was the perfect fit I thought. He
                          used to play there, his wife lives there, Florida has no goalie. I'm sure Lou wouldn't agree to go to a non contender though.

                          I will be pissed if they end up trading Schneider though. Hopefully we can
                          unload Lou for anything. I would take draft picks at this point just to clear some salary space to let us get a couple more elite forwards.

                          Never gonna happen though
                          Comment
                          • DennisGreen
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 11-27-08
                            • 18369

                            #14
                            Originally posted by julio_cat
                            Good luck this season, hopefully you will start strong.

                            Any contest either by you or xxx for this season?
                            I was planning on opening a POD contest through SBR. Would only be ML, PL and totals bets but it would be 0 work compared to how hard it is to keep up with a POD thread on your own.

                            I personally just don't have the time to do all the record keeping myself anymore but hey if xxx ends up wanting to take on the workload by all means I would join.
                            Comment
                            • Jempa
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 01-21-10
                              • 123

                              #15
                              Hey DG, welcome back for a brand new season. Looking forward to your picks, even though the first half of last season didn't go swell we'll make the best of it.

                              Have you done any backtracking from last season? I recall you making some analysis of your bets before last season. Thinking of the 1st period bets and grand salamis, TT's and parlays. Maybe filter some of them out.

                              Anyways, good look this season, will be following closely as always even though I don't tend to post too much.
                              Comment
                              • DennisGreen
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-27-08
                                • 18369

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Jempa
                                Hey DG, welcome back for a brand new season. Looking forward to your picks, even though the first half of last season didn't go swell we'll make the best of it.

                                Have you done any backtracking from last season? I recall you making some analysis of your bets before last season. Thinking of the 1st period bets and grand salamis, TT's and parlays. Maybe filter some of them out.

                                Anyways, good look this season, will be following closely as always even though I don't tend to post too
                                much.
                                I was gonna backtrack but I made close to 1000 plays last year, about double from the previous year so i really don't think I'll be doing it again this year as it would take a good 10-12 hours I think
                                Comment
                                • gigicash
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-05-09
                                  • 2077

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by DennisGreen
                                  I was gonna backtrack but I made close to 1000 plays last year, about double from the previous year so i really don't think I'll be doing it again this year as it would take a good 10-12 hours I think
                                  : DG, I know what you mean - more plays = more fun but It's exhausting! You go nuts, and when you can't afford to take a break, you lose focus and sh** happens. It only takes one day to screw up your whole week lol we all know how it is. I'll be cutting down on my plays too, for sure.
                                  Comment
                                  • DennisGreen
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 11-27-08
                                    • 18369

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by gigicash
                                    : DG, I know what you mean - more plays = more fun but It's exhausting! You go nuts, and when you can't afford to take a break, you lose focus and sh** happens. It only takes one day to screw up your whole week lol we all know how it is. I'll be cutting down on my plays too, for sure.
                                    Definitely brother. I had 3-5 plays daily
                                    and I know you did as well most of the time

                                    Just so much time and effort is needed. I'm definitely gonna cut down this year and be more selective. I became way too much of a degenerate last year
                                    forcing action at times.

                                    Glad to have you back for the new season, good luck this year
                                    Comment
                                    • mike-dub
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 01-22-11
                                      • 765

                                      #19
                                      i followed a few of your plays last season but unfortunately my book didnt offer all of the same plays (some player props, regulation wins...) and ive been too busy to start a new one. but ill be here, watching my canucks give it another go
                                      best of luck this season and i hope your 5k comes early!
                                      Comment
                                      • pagodo
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 05-09-11
                                        • 669

                                        #20
                                        Bookmarked!

                                        Good luck, DennisGreen, looking forward to some nice NHL profit over the winter.

                                        Respect, sir
                                        Comment
                                        • DennisGreen
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 11-27-08
                                          • 18369

                                          #21
                                          Totally forgot preseason started today

                                          One play for me tonight to get the ball rolling on the new season.

                                          OTT/TOR Over 5.5 (-115)
                                          Comment
                                          • xraygord
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 09-18-09
                                            • 2599

                                            #22
                                            Holy crap, didn't know you bet preseason. I didn't get this game in, oh well.

                                            I made a bet today at work that the Jets will make the playoffs.
                                            Comment
                                            • Galego
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 09-18-11
                                              • 791

                                              #23
                                              Good luck!!!

                                              Some good cappers going on the Over!!

                                              Maybe I jump on it!!
                                              Comment
                                              • aznbluff
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 07-24-08
                                                • 892

                                                #24
                                                Don't have a play on the game, but nice to see Karlsson is still a gigantic liability on the ice. I love how the public think he's going to be a star defenseman for years to come too.
                                                Comment
                                                • Galego
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 09-18-11
                                                  • 791

                                                  #25
                                                  Great call!!! Thanks for the play!!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • TomJSports
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 08-31-11
                                                    • 1177

                                                    #26
                                                    Karlsson will be a great defenseman, but probably more like a really good #2. He was great at Frölunda, especially for being small. Last year's 'good play' was by Ottawa standards (i.e. low) and was a bit of an aberration, I doubt he'll be worthy of a top-pairing spot until his mid 20s, maybe 23, 24.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • DennisGreen
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 11-27-08
                                                      • 18369

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by mike-dub
                                                      i followed a few of your plays last season but unfortunately my book didnt offer all of the same plays (some player props, regulation wins...) and ive been too busy to start a new one. but ill be here, watching my canucks give it another go best of luck this season and i hope your 5k comes early!
                                                      Originally posted by pagodo
                                                      Bookmarked! Good luck, DennisGreen, looking forward to some nice NHL profit over the winter. Respect, sir
                                                      TY kind sirs.

                                                      Originally posted by xraygord
                                                      Holy crap, didn't know you bet preseason. I didn't get this game in, oh well. I made a bet today at work that the Jets will make the playoffs.
                                                      You homer! I guess ATL was close the last few years and having a real fan base and a packed arena may help the Jets sneak in. Can't wait to watch opening night in the Peg.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • DennisGreen
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 11-27-08
                                                        • 18369

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by aznbluff
                                                        Don't have a play on the game, but nice to see Karlsson is still a gigantic liability on the ice. I love how the public think he's going to be a star defenseman for years to come too.
                                                        I heard the hype about Karlsson and believed it until I watched a few Sens games last year. He coughed up the puck a lot but gotta cut the guy some slack he's still young. What he brings offensively to the table overshadows his blunders.

                                                        Originally posted by TomJSports
                                                        Karlsson will be a great defenseman, but probably more like a really good #2. He was great at Frölunda, especially for being small. Last year's 'good play' was by Ottawa standards (i.e. low) and was a bit of an aberration, I doubt he'll be worthy of a top-pairing spot until his mid 20s, maybe 23, 24.
                                                        Definitely tough to really become an elite defenceman until 23+ these days. He will be a mainstay on the Sens blue line for years to come though.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • DennisGreen
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 11-27-08
                                                          • 18369

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Galego
                                                          Great call!!! Thanks for the play!!
                                                          No problem
                                                          Comment
                                                          • DennisGreen
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-27-08
                                                            • 18369

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by DennisGreen
                                                            Totally forgot preseason started today One play for me tonight to get the ball rolling on the new season. OTT/TOR Over 5.5 (-115)
                                                            Good start to the pre-season
                                                            Pre-Season Record
                                                            1-0 +$100

                                                            A ton of action tomorrow I will likely have a play or two.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • pagodo
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 05-09-11
                                                              • 669

                                                              #31
                                                              I'll be dropping points and a kind word from time to time, great pick, thank you
                                                              Comment
                                                              • DennisGreen
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 11-27-08
                                                                • 18369

                                                                #32
                                                                Tuesday Preseason Play

                                                                CAL -0.5 (-117)


                                                                -With the Flames dressing half their regulars compared to just a couple 3rd and 4th liners for the Canucks the Flames should roll tonight. The Flames are dressing both their regular goalies as well whereas the Canucks won't have Luongo or Schneider. The Flames will want to win this one for their fans even though it's a meaningless game in the grand scheme of things. Calgary seems to be dressing their team to win while the Canucks are simply giving depth guys a look in an audition for their bottom few roster spots. -200 ML or -117 in regulation, I'll take the Flames in regulation.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Bo$$ Bet$
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 07-08-10
                                                                  • 3062

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Not seeing this on 5dimes? +:clueless
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • FlaxMartin
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 08-13-10
                                                                    • 2148

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Looking forward to a wonderful season :=)
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • DennisGreen
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 11-27-08
                                                                      • 18369

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Bo$$ Bet$
                                                                      Not seeing this on 5dimes? +:clueless
                                                                      I could only find it on bwin. Wasn't up earlier on Bet365 or 5 dimes. No idea
                                                                      Comment
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