NHL Handicapping...

[willyback]

Some nights my picks are golden, other nights my picks are crap. It simply makes no sense.

Are there any consistent themes in the NHL (besides goaltending) that give you a reasonable indication as to which team should win?

[cobra_king]

Unfortunately no........that is why it's imperative to find value in the lines, and in the NHL almost all of that value lies in the underdogs.

[willyback]

True. I just wish there was a better way to confidently evaluate games (within reason).

[Arnold]

This season you would have made +58 units just by picking every visiting underdog.

[cobra_king]

This season you would have made +58 units just by picking every visiting underdog.

And this is exactly where almost all the value lies in the moneyline. Last year the number was in the mid 40 units for visiting dogs as well. The problem with most bettors, and i've said this before, is that almost everyone is "results orientated", meaning they try and win every game they bet. Aside from this being impossible, it eliminates these players from ever being able to consistently spot value in lines, which is the only way to beat this game in the long term. I only won about 45% of my NHL plays this year but was up over 100units for the season. LT is about 50% and is near 120 units. You have to be willing to accept making losing bets, and in my case, more losers than winners, because you know that you are probably going to win long term because you are finding value in the lines. However, most people are unwilling, or unable to accept losing this much and therefore end up forcing plays and trying to win each individual game they bet. And in all cases this will end up killing you.

[diogee]

This season you would have made +58 units just by picking every visiting underdog.

Wow thanks for the info Arnold....might have to try implementing it next year.

[Arnold]

Wow thanks for the info Arnold....might have to try implementing it next year.

Be careful though, because no one knows if this will continue next year. I checked the years before and here is what I got:

2006-07: -15
2005-06: -56.3
2003-04: -12.4

I'm not sure how Cobra_King got +40 last year. I only counted the regular season, since my odds for playoffs are all messed up.

[cobra_king]

Arnold

It was discussed in a pre season thread, another poster who's name escapes me right now had similiar numbers to mine. Interesting that your numbers are so far off of mine and his. If i get some time this week i will go back over the numbers and double check everything to see if there were any errors on my part.

[Arnold]

Arnold

It was discussed in a pre season thread, another poster who's name escapes me right now had similiar numbers to mine. Interesting that your numbers are so far off of mine and his. If i get some time this week i will go back over the numbers and double check everything to see if there were any errors on my part.

Here, check some of the games against mine. I'm copying a few here:

2006-10-04 00:00:00 110 -130 Buffalo Carolina 3 2
2006-10-04 00:00:00 100 -120 Dallas Colorado 3 2
2006-10-05 00:00:00 105 -115 Calgary Edmonton 1 3
2006-10-05 00:00:00 225 -255 St Louis San Jose 4 5
2006-10-05 00:00:00 210 -240 Chicago Nashville 8 6
2006-10-05 00:00:00 145 -165 Colorado Minnesota 2 3
2006-10-05 00:00:00 140 -160 NY Islanders Phoenix 3 6
2006-10-05 00:00:00 120 -140 Tampa Bay Atlanta 3 2
2006-10-05 00:00:00 170 -190 Vancouver Detroit 3 1
2006-10-05 00:00:00 200 -230 Washington NY Rangers 2 5
2006-10-05 00:00:00 235 -265 Toronto Ottawa 6 0
2006-10-06 00:00:00 105 -115 Boston Florida 3 8
2006-10-06 00:00:00 120 -140 New Jersey Carolina 4 0
2006-10-06 00:00:00 150 -170 Montreal Buffalo 4 5
2006-10-06 00:00:00 180 -200 Los Angeles Anaheim 3 4
2006-10-06 00:00:00 105 -125 Vancouver Columbus 3 2
2006-10-07 00:00:00 115 -135 Nashville Minnesota 5 6
2006-10-07 00:00:00 145 -165 Edmonton Calgary 1 2
2006-10-07 00:00:00 235 -270 NY Islanders San Jose 0 2
2006-10-07 00:00:00 110 -130 New Jersey Dallas 1 3
2006-10-07 00:00:00 105 -115 Anaheim Phoenix 2 1
2006-10-07 00:00:00 145 -165 St Louis Los Angeles 1 4
2006-10-07 00:00:00 140 -160 Boston Tampa Bay 3 2
2006-10-07 00:00:00 145 -165 Florida Atlanta 0 6
2006-10-07 00:00:00 130 -150 Columbus Chicago 5 4
2006-10-07 00:00:00 165 -185 Buffalo Ottawa 4 3
2006-10-07 00:00:00 120 -140 Montreal Toronto 3 2
2006-10-07 00:00:00 110 -130 NY Rangers Philadelphia 5 4
2006-10-08 00:00:00 110 -130 Vancouver Colorado 2 3
2006-10-09 00:00:00 115 -135 San Jose Calgary 4 1
2006-10-09 00:00:00 105 -125 Phoenix Columbus 1 5
2006-10-09 00:00:00 215 -245 St Louis Anaheim 0 2
2006-10-09 00:00:00 135 -155 Florida Toronto 1 2
2006-10-09 00:00:00 115 -135 Atlanta Tampa Bay 1 0
2006-10-10 00:00:00 125 -145 Philadelphia NY Rangers 4 2
2006-10-10 00:00:00 150 -170 NY Islanders Los Angeles 2 4
2006-10-10 00:00:00 125 -145 Vancouver Minnesota 1 2
2006-10-11 00:00:00 225 -255 NY Islanders Anaheim 5 4
2006-10-11 00:00:00 110 -130 Montreal Philadelphia 3 1
2006-10-11 00:00:00 200 -230 Phoenix Detroit 2 9
2006-10-11 00:00:00 135 -155 Boston Atlanta 1 4
2006-10-12 00:00:00 105 -115 Boston St Louis 2 3
2006-10-12 00:00:00 190 -220 Pittsburgh NY Rangers 6 5
2006-10-12 00:00:00 155 -175 Toronto New Jersey 6 7
2006-10-12 00:00:00 135 -155 Calgary Ottawa 1 0
2006-10-12 00:00:00 190 -215 Washington Minnesota 2 3
2006-10-13 00:00:00 100 -120 San Jose Vancouver 6 4
2006-10-13 00:00:00 135 -155 Buffalo Detroit 3 2
2006-10-13 00:00:00 120 -140 Carolina Atlanta 4 3
2006-10-13 00:00:00 105 -125 Tampa Bay Florida 2 3
2006-10-14 00:00:00 140 -160 Florida Tampa Bay 1 4
2006-10-14 00:00:00 120 -140 NY Rangers Buffalo 4 7
2006-10-14 00:00:00 105 -125 Chicago St Louis 3 4
2006-10-14 00:00:00 140 -160 Philadelphia New Jersey 2 3
2006-10-14 00:00:00 105 -115 Boston NY Islanders 1 4
2006-10-14 00:00:00 100 -120 Edmonton Colorado 4 3
2006-10-14 00:00:00 155 -175 Phoenix Nashville 1 4
2006-10-14 00:00:00 160 -180 Columbus Minnesota 0 5
2006-10-15 00:00:00 140 -160 Dallas Anaheim 4 3
2006-10-16 00:00:00 160 -180 Chicago Colorado 5 3
2006-10-16 00:00:00 100 -120 New Jersey NY Rangers 2 4
2006-10-16 00:00:00 110 -130 Carolina Tampa Bay 5 1
2006-10-17 00:00:00 170 -190 Philadelphia Buffalo 1 9
2006-10-17 00:00:00 110 -130 Phoenix St Louis 5 2
2006-10-17 00:00:00 105 -115 Calgary Montreal 4 5
2006-10-17 00:00:00 125 -145 Dallas San Jose 0 2
2006-10-17 00:00:00 135 -155 Vancouver Edmonton 1 2
2006-10-18 00:00:00 100 -120 Detroit Anaheim 1 4
2006-10-18 00:00:00 125 -145 Colorado Toronto 4 1
2006-10-18 00:00:00 105 -125 Nashville NY Rangers 3 0
2006-10-18 00:00:00 110 -110 Montreal Chicago 1 2
2006-10-18 00:00:00 105 -125 Florida Washington 2 5
2006-10-19 00:00:00 195 -225 Washington Atlanta 3 4
2006-10-19 00:00:00 105 -125 Philadelphia Tampa Bay 1 4
2006-10-19 00:00:00 190 -220 Colorado Ottawa 2 1
2006-10-19 00:00:00 115 -135 Nashville New Jersey 4 3
2006-10-19 00:00:00 125 -145 Pittsburgh NY Islanders 4 3
2006-10-19 00:00:00 130 -150 Los Angeles Phoenix 4 0
2006-10-19 00:00:00 135 -155 Detroit San Jose 1 5
2006-10-20 00:00:00 105 -125 Toronto Columbus 4 2
2006-10-20 00:00:00 130 -150 Minnesota Anaheim 1 2
2006-10-20 00:00:00 190 -220 Chicago Dallas 4 5
2006-10-20 00:00:00 160 -180 Carolina Buffalo 4 5
2006-10-20 00:00:00 125 -145 Philadelphia Florida 2 3
2006-10-21 00:00:00 180 -200 Florida Atlanta 2 4
2006-10-21 00:00:00 140 -160 St Louis Chicago 4 3
2006-10-21 00:00:00 130 -150 Columbus Pittsburgh 3 5
2006-10-21 00:00:00 130 -150 New Jersey Ottawa 1 8
2006-10-21 00:00:00 105 -115 NY Rangers Toronto 5 4
2006-10-21 00:00:00 125 -145 Colorado Montreal 5 8
2006-10-21 00:00:00 145 -165 Vancouver Nashville 4 3
2006-10-21 00:00:00 170 -190 Minnesota San Jose 4 1
2006-10-21 00:00:00 105 -125 Detroit Edmonton 1 3
2006-10-23 00:00:00 210 -240 Phoenix Edmonton 2 5
2006-10-23 00:00:00 170 -190 Los Angeles Colorado 1 6
2006-10-23 00:00:00 170 -190 Vancouver Dallas 1 2
2006-10-24 00:00:00 230 -260 Phoenix Calgary 1 6
2006-10-25 00:00:00 180 -200 Washington Colorado 5 3
2006-10-25 00:00:00 200 -230 Los Angeles Minnesota 1 3
2006-10-25 00:00:00 140 -160 Edmonton Anaheim 2 6
2006-10-25 00:00:00 200 -230 Florida NY Rangers 4 2
2006-10-25 00:00:00 105 -125 Atlanta Carolina 4 5
2006-10-26 00:00:00 120 -140 Carolina Tampa Bay 1 5
2006-10-26 00:00:00 200 -230 Toronto Ottawa 2 7
2006-10-26 00:00:00 220 -250 Florida New Jersey 0 2
2006-10-26 00:00:00 105 -115 San Jose Nashville 3 4
2006-10-27 00:00:00 130 -150 Los Angeles Columbus 0 2
2006-10-27 00:00:00 110 -130 Anaheim Minnesota 2 3
2006-10-27 00:00:00 190 -220 Washington Vancouver 2 3
2006-10-27 00:00:00 130 -150 Detroit Dallas 4 3
2006-10-28 00:00:00 255 -300 Los Angeles Dallas 2 3
2006-10-28 00:00:00 200 -230 Washington Edmonton 0 4
2006-10-28 00:00:00 130 -150 Nashville Calgary 3 2
2006-10-28 00:00:00 210 -240 Columbus New Jersey 0 1
2006-10-28 00:00:00 115 -135 Pittsburgh Philadelphia 8 2
2006-10-28 00:00:00 125 -145 Florida NY Islanders 3 4
2006-10-28 00:00:00 160 -180 Toronto Montreal 5 4
2006-10-28 00:00:00 190 -215 Atlanta Buffalo 5 4
2006-10-28 00:00:00 130 -150 Tampa Bay Carolina 4 6
2006-10-29 00:00:00 105 -105 Minnesota Colorado 1 4
2006-10-30 00:00:00 190 -220 Washington Calgary 4 2
2006-10-30 00:00:00 180 -200 Chicago Philadelphia 0 3
2006-10-31 00:00:00 210 -240 Chicago NY Islanders 2 5
2006-10-31 00:00:00 115 -135 Nashville Vancouver 3 2
2006-11-01 00:00:00 145 -165 Nashville Edmonton 5 3
2006-11-01 00:00:00 110 -130 Colorado Columbus 5 3
2006-11-01 00:00:00 240 -280 St Louis Dallas 1 4
2006-11-01 00:00:00 180 -200 NY Rangers Anaheim 4 3
2006-11-01 00:00:00 125 -145 Toronto Tampa Bay 4 2
2006-11-01 00:00:00 150 -170 Calgary Detroit 2 3
2006-11-01 00:00:00 125 -145 Carolina Atlanta 5 2
2006-11-02 00:00:00 105 -125 Toronto Florida 2 4
2006-11-02 00:00:00 105 -125 Montreal Carolina 4 0
2006-11-02 00:00:00 105 -115 Tampa Bay Philadelphia 5 2
2006-11-02 00:00:00 170 -190 NY Islanders New Jersey 5 2
2006-11-02 00:00:00 145 -165 Vancouver Minnesota 2 5
2006-11-02 00:00:00 215 -245 NY Rangers San Jose 3 1
2006-11-03 00:00:00 105 -115 Dallas Edmonton 3 2
2006-11-03 00:00:00 255 -300 Phoenix Anaheim 2 6

[soni]

I tried to calculate W/L on home and road teams up until now:

Eastern Conference
home:314-220 road:279-250
Western Conference
home:329-207 road:278-255

total:
home:643-427 road:529-505

p.s. is there a statistic that sums up all teams W/L so i don't bother calculating next time

[LT Profits]

Also, this is the time of year when you have to be extra careful with games where only one team has anything to play for. That said, rivalry games could still be good even if the dog is an also-ran, such as Islanders tonight.

[element1286]

There is a lot of division games this time of year. That should keep the games more honest, one would think.

[DukeJohn]

Be careful though, because no one knows if this will continue next year. I checked the years before and here is what I got:

2006-07: -15
2005-06: -56.3
2003-04: -12.4

I'm not sure how Cobra_King got +40 last year. I only counted the regular season, since my odds for playoffs are all messed up.

Reading through Arnold's and Cobra's posts you can see where value begins to unfold. NHL is a different animal and yet it seems many cappers try and force a play as Cobra was saying. I too, place most of my bets on visiting dogs, as I have seen more value there than anywhere else. NHL capping is like fading that which seems logical, very strange sport, very strange. IMO.

[willyback]

So there's nothing in the stats that could possibly give an edge to one team over the other?

[Arnold]

So there's nothing in the stats that could possibly give an edge to one team over the other?

I'm sure there is something. It's just a matter of knowing it.

[soni]

take yesterday's results:

all 3 road dogs lost: Boston, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay
only home dog Chicago won!

are you saying this usually's not the case throughout the season (except for the last month - things like this happen)?

on apr 1 however - two out of 4 road dogs won!
montreal and colorado!

I haven't studied the season results and ml's, so I'm thinking I'll sit down and take some time and study it carefully how this and the last season turned out.

however if you look at colorado and montreal they are both solid visiting teams playing against good home teams who had a bad time probably.

So I'll take your formula applies for 'solid' road dogs!


Let's see if NYI beats NYR tonight lol

[DukeJohn]

Looking for value on an away dog. I have not tried this as it would require a lot of data crunching, however Arnold and some others have the ability to run a program or two to get this info.

So, I would suggest trying this:

Broken up into years for the last three years, find which segment of away dogs gives you the best return on your investment for any given category. Such as:

• +105 - +149
• +150 - +174
• +175 - +199
• +200+

If there appears to be a constant category that has a higher ROI, you might then be able to go back over each of the games in that category and do a more in-depth analysis of those games to see if you could uncover maybe a gem of truth that will push you into positive units when handicapping an NHL game. Of course this may lead to a dead end, but then again...