>>>long post warning<<<
So this is my first season playing the NHL lines and I am still up and down (not bombing, but there’s definitely room to improve).
My routine mainly consists of running through the sbr matchup reports and some other stats based sites. I pay particular attn to the GF/GA, PP%, goalie stats, season record (and quality of opponents), last game played (back to back games), injuries, and matchup histories as well as any other datum that the reports highlight. Other than that, I have my own sense of which teams are performing well and not so well.
I haven’t found a consistent source to check for starters and I don’t track player stats day-to-day (I monitor each game though, so I have a sense of whose producing and other trends, like games lost to penalties)
ANYWAY,
I’ve been analyzing my own picks since the start of the season, trying to improve my informal system, and I came across so interesting trends that may seem painfully obvious..
Of my sample picks for 40+ games thus far:
*77% of losses come when I pick the visitor
*Odds of winning = 47%
*Odds of losing = 53%
*Odds ratio for win/loss by home/visitor picks = 3.5
*OR for win/loss by fav/dog picks = 4.0
*So far (since a couple days ago) the proportion of visitor picks has been 64%
*Of dogs/lost, all were visitors
*Of dogs/won, 2 were V, 1 was H
*Of favs/won, 40% were visitors, 60% were home teams (this stat has changed.. more home wins as of today).
*favs/lost were x2 as likely to be visiting than at home
*visitors/won only lost at home 1/3 of the time (may be messed because my sample is biased)
*homers/lost also lost on the road half of the time
MY THOUGHTS:
Don’t pick dog when they are visiting
Favs win at home more than on the road
Most favs that lost were visitors
Pick favs that play at home (when value is there)
Homers win approx. x2 as often as visitors (sample bias?)
Note: these are just comments on the trends. I haven’t committed to a general system like this. Each match should be analysed on individual merits and factors.
So far, CAR, OTT, and PHL are the strongest road warriors (I have 6 combined wins with no road losses in my book—again obv sample/selection bias) and only 1 combined home loss (CAR/OTT)
YOUR THOUGHTS?
I know this is a long post, but if you don’t have anything better to do, your thoughts on other considerations that may help improve my predictive power would be cool.. I didn’t talk about spread and O-U picks.. but any insight on those would be appreciated as well.
cheers
So this is my first season playing the NHL lines and I am still up and down (not bombing, but there’s definitely room to improve).
My routine mainly consists of running through the sbr matchup reports and some other stats based sites. I pay particular attn to the GF/GA, PP%, goalie stats, season record (and quality of opponents), last game played (back to back games), injuries, and matchup histories as well as any other datum that the reports highlight. Other than that, I have my own sense of which teams are performing well and not so well.
I haven’t found a consistent source to check for starters and I don’t track player stats day-to-day (I monitor each game though, so I have a sense of whose producing and other trends, like games lost to penalties)
ANYWAY,
I’ve been analyzing my own picks since the start of the season, trying to improve my informal system, and I came across so interesting trends that may seem painfully obvious..
Of my sample picks for 40+ games thus far:
*77% of losses come when I pick the visitor
*Odds of winning = 47%
*Odds of losing = 53%
*Odds ratio for win/loss by home/visitor picks = 3.5
*OR for win/loss by fav/dog picks = 4.0
*So far (since a couple days ago) the proportion of visitor picks has been 64%
*Of dogs/lost, all were visitors
*Of dogs/won, 2 were V, 1 was H
*Of favs/won, 40% were visitors, 60% were home teams (this stat has changed.. more home wins as of today).
*favs/lost were x2 as likely to be visiting than at home
*visitors/won only lost at home 1/3 of the time (may be messed because my sample is biased)
*homers/lost also lost on the road half of the time
MY THOUGHTS:
Don’t pick dog when they are visiting
Favs win at home more than on the road
Most favs that lost were visitors
Pick favs that play at home (when value is there)
Homers win approx. x2 as often as visitors (sample bias?)
Note: these are just comments on the trends. I haven’t committed to a general system like this. Each match should be analysed on individual merits and factors.
So far, CAR, OTT, and PHL are the strongest road warriors (I have 6 combined wins with no road losses in my book—again obv sample/selection bias) and only 1 combined home loss (CAR/OTT)
YOUR THOUGHTS?
I know this is a long post, but if you don’t have anything better to do, your thoughts on other considerations that may help improve my predictive power would be cool.. I didn’t talk about spread and O-U picks.. but any insight on those would be appreciated as well.
cheers