[bernardoGui]

Any Correlation Between Winning the Presidents' Trophy and Winning the Stanley Cup?

by bernardoGui,
on SBR Forum.com/NHLforum
05-01-2014


On the 1st of May 2013, Correspondent Nicholas Gass asked this question on Bleacherreport.com. Back then, the Blackhawks had just won the Presidents’ Trophy and now We know that they went on to win the Stanley Cup.

However, Gass’ article shows that there is no particular historical correlation between the winners of the Presidents’ Trophy and the Stanley Cup; it also reveals that the 2013 rally of the Blackhawks was only to be the third correlative incident in 11 years. Since the introduction of the Presidents’ Trophy, in the season of 1985, the winners have only gone on to win the Stanley Cup in se7en incidents. Statistically, that is one correlative incident pr. 4.14 years; the last three incidents occurred in 2002, 2008 and 2013.

These numbers do not favor this years winners of the Presidents’ Trophy, with regards to the question of the possibility of yet another correlative incident this season.

The Boston Bruins are not on the short list of correlative Presidents’ Trophy- and Stanley Cup winners either and they haven’t been close to this particular cigar, since the 1990 Stanley Cup Finals-loss to the Edmonton Oilers. Forgiven (maybe?) but definitely not forgotten! For an Original Six franchise You’d think that this is a chance you cannot afford to squander more than once. However, the Boston Bruins will find themselves in a tough spot in their upcoming series vs. Montréal Canadiéns - another Original Six franchise - which, by the way, sees it as almost a moral duty to eliminate the Bruins at any given opportunity. And those opportunities have been a many. The playoff record between these two franchises is second to none: 33 series and 170 games. Montréal Canadiéns have won 24 of those 33 series and 102 of the 170 games played.

One could argue, that most of these victoires cannadiénnes occurred before 1987, when the Canadiéns won 18 consecutive series AND that the Bruins, beginning with the five game victory in 1988, have won seven of the past 11 series, including the most recent in 2009 and 2011.

In his article, Gass praises The Stanley Cup playoffs because any team, regardless of its seed, has a chance to lift the best trophy in sports. He also points out that this is why there's only a weak correlation between winning the Presidents' Trophy and the Stanley Cup. In other words: Regular-season success means nothing once the puck is dropped in the playoffs. But what are We to make of it when both teams in question are among the absolute best performers so far in this season?

During their first round playoff series 2014, both teams have played the most convincingly, of the 16 playoff teams, and they’ve won their respective series 0-4 and 4-1. I have both heard and read quotes stating that this matchup should have been a Conference Final or even the Cup Final itself, rather than a 2nd round playoff series. Maybe!?

However, it is not and by looking at the playoff brackets, the recent developments should be more than enough for the Boston Bruins and the Montréal Canadiéns to realize that this series is most likely going to be the first of potentially 3 very tight rounds and that the Stanley Cup Finals are a long way away; Presidents’ Trophy winners or not..

So, instead of asking about the possibility of winning the Stanley Cup (which should be obvious as the Bruins made it to the playoffs by winning the PT) the much more interesting question is how to make it to the 3rd round. Period. And that quest starts tonight in G1.

Tonight, I am not going to buy any ML- or PL bets. Nor will I tamper with the over/under bets. In those terms, this first game is to close of a matchup for that kind of carelessness. Instead, I am looking at the SOG stats and the goalie stats from their respective first rounds, as I think that the best plays in a tight G1 is to trust the goalies with a fair amount of saves.. And why not? With Tuuka Rask vs. Carey Price as probable starters, this is also going to be one of the decisive factors in this series.

Bonne chance a tout!

[OTL]

No correlation. Statistically it has been more of a curse than a blessing. Teams like the Capitals, Canucks, Sharks, and Penguins come immediately to my mind.