Hockey prop bets - discussion

[the_fredrik]

Does any of you play hockey prop bets? I am rather new at this, here are some throughts:

Atlanta today versus Florida. ATL have an average of 29.4 shots per goal this season. They are a slight favourite today, and their position in the chart are a little above average, so their opponents strength is no reason to adjust this number much. (For instance if they were up against a top ranked team we should expect a lower number, and vice versa)

Pinnacle currently offers over 28.5 at +104

Using the Poisson calculator (see link below) we find that this bet has an expectation of $113 for every $100 bet.

What am I missing, if anything? Perhaps there are some important factors I have overlooked?

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http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/18229-betting-tools-temporary-home.html

[xxx]

i dont play props as i dont have the time to look in to it. Theses kind of things can be a toss up. But for the atlanta and the over for tonight, consider that atlanta has gone over 28.5 only 2 out off their last 6 games and are playing a florida team wich plays well at home.

[figjam]

I feel the same way as XXX does on shots on goal props. Theres too many factors that can affect the outcome that in effect makes this prop a coin toss. Thus that is why i never bet props.

[the_fredrik]

See, it won, I am a genius!

Of course there are a lot of factors that affect such a prop, but there must be even more factors in deciding who wins?

At least this was my thought, figuring out a single prop would be easier than figuring out who wins, plus fewer people is doing it so the lines might be easier to beat.

Anyway, just saw that Pinnacle has a $100 limit on these props so that makes my interest disappear anyway...