Take a dog +1.5 @-220 and it has a 50% to win. (damn you useless Kings)
Take a fav -1.5 @+150 and it has a 35% to win.
+1.5 seems so damn expensive when you see all these 7:1 4:0 4:1 blowouts. But take the negative puck line and suddenly it's a super tight game where the home fav just can't get a 2 goal lead no matter what, not even in the empty net. Take the dog spread and suddenly empty netters ruin a third of your picks that manage to keep it tight until the last minutes. So then you go back to MLs and collect those OT losses.
Take a fav -1.5 @+150 and it has a 35% to win.
+1.5 seems so damn expensive when you see all these 7:1 4:0 4:1 blowouts. But take the negative puck line and suddenly it's a super tight game where the home fav just can't get a 2 goal lead no matter what, not even in the empty net. Take the dog spread and suddenly empty netters ruin a third of your picks that manage to keep it tight until the last minutes. So then you go back to MLs and collect those OT losses.