No Brainer Total System

dawg58kahn · 12-17-18, 08:05 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

This is so simple that it is almost too good to be true. You will not win a ton of money with this system but you will not lose. ALWAYS play the Over on games with a Total line of 6 and NEVER play the under. The reason is almost childish. We KNOW that someone has to win every game. Let's take an example sing two teams, A and B. The Total for the A vs B game is 6. If the game is ever tied at 3 each, you have an automatic winner because someone MUST win the game, either in regulation, OT or a shootout. Someone is going to get that 4th point. Conversely, if you take the under and the game is tied, say 3-3 and the number is 6, you must LOSE because someone is going to get that 4th point. Now granted this will not happen a lot, but so far, there have been 38 games that ended in OT or a shoot out with a final score of 4-3. Not every game had a total of 6, but if just 1/3 of them did, you are talking 12-13 wins, and that is substantial to me.

the market is specific on totals dawg. totals for regulation time vs totals for regulation times including overtime

dbouchot · 12-17-18, 11:46 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

This is so simple that it is almost too good to be true. You will not win a ton of money with this system but you will not lose. ALWAYS play the Over on games with a Total line of 6 and NEVER play the under. The reason is almost childish. We KNOW that someone has to win every game. Let's take an example sing two teams, A and B. The Total for the A vs B game is 6. If the game is ever tied at 3 each, you have an automatic winner because someone MUST win the game, either in regulation, OT or a shootout. Someone is going to get that 4th point. Conversely, if you take the under and the game is tied, say 3-3 and the number is 6, you must LOSE because someone is going to get that 4th point. Now granted this will not happen a lot, but so far, there have been 38 games that ended in OT or a shoot out with a final score of 4-3. Not every game had a total of 6, but if just 1/3 of them did, you are talking 12-13 wins, and that is substantial to me.

Hi, I got interested in this and had some time in my hands so decided to take a deeper look at it, I used sbr historical odds from the current season and used all the games with 6 o/u opener, it ended up with 118 overs 115 unders and 23 ties being at -9.05 units, I don't know if I can upload a spreadsheet here or how to do it but if you would like to see the work let me know and I'll send it to you.

kingdom · 12-18-18, 06:16 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

This is so simple that it is almost too good to be true. You will not win a ton of money with this system but you will not lose. ALWAYS play the Over on games with a Total line of 6 and NEVER play the under. The reason is almost childish. We KNOW that someone has to win every game. Let's take an example sing two teams, A and B. The Total for the A vs B game is 6. If the game is ever tied at 3 each, you have an automatic winner because someone MUST win the game, either in regulation, OT or a shootout. Someone is going to get that 4th point. Conversely, if you take the under and the game is tied, say 3-3 and the number is 6, you must LOSE because someone is going to get that 4th point. Now granted this will not happen a lot, but so far, there have been 38 games that ended in OT or a shoot out with a final score of 4-3. Not every game had a total of 6, but if just 1/3 of them did, you are talking 12-13 wins, and that is substantial to me.

no brainer. you can say that again no brain.

Mike Huntertz · 12-18-18, 01:38 PM

Originally posted by dbouchot

Hi, I got interested in this and had some time in my hands so decided to take a deeper look at it, I used sbr historical odds from the current season and used all the games with 6 o/u opener, it ended up with 118 overs 115 unders and 23 ties being at -9.05 units, I don't know if I can upload a spreadsheet here or how to do it but if you would like to see the work let me know and I'll send it to you.

Thanxs for all that work.
In this sample size I would say, when you add in the juice.....you lose!

dbouchot · 12-18-18, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by Mike Huntertz

Thanxs for all that work.
In this sample size I would say, when you add in the juice.....you lose!

no problem, I actually think it went closer than expected, I thought the unders where going to win by far, maybe I'll check the 6.5 today as a system I don't think it works, but if I'm not mistaken there has been an increment in gpg in nhl so maybe there is something there.

dbouchot · 12-18-18, 04:02 PM

Just did the work for 6.5 as openers and its a much smaller sample but a lot more promising ending with 31 over 24 unders and +4.75 units, gonna take a look to the past season to see if it checks out and if its promising I'll go one year further to confirm the trend.

dbouchot · 12-18-18, 05:18 PM

Ok, so I think this will be the last of this "system" at least until the end of this season, there is definitely a huge change in odds this season with the lines being considerably higher than before last year through out the whole season and playoffs there was only 37 games opening with 6.5 O/U while in this season there has been 55 already, anyway I looked for all the results on 5,5.5,6 and 6.5 on last season and here are the results:
5 OU line openers: 37 games, 18 O, 10 U, 9 T
5.5 OU line openers: 876 games, 456 O, 420 U
6 OU line openers: 403 games, 173 O, 190 U, 40 T
6.5 OU line openers: 37 games, 18 O, 19 U
so as for last season the only opening line that would have been profitable to bet blind over would have been 5 and since the lines have been going up quite a bit I dont see how this would work, anyway I had fun doing the research and if anyone wants the spreadsheets let me know and I'll gladly will forward them.
I'll probably do it again at the end of this season to see how it turns out.
GL on your plays and have a good day.