Pucks 2/2/2009

ploben · 02-02-09, 01:36 PM

UPDATE:

Adding 1 play tonight:

STL ML (+235)

DET has not played like the Red Wings of late. This is one of those games where the faultering team continues to faulter or they come back and beat the crap outa their next opp. I am banking on the former. You have to remember the school of thought that "It is a bad idea to bet on a team just because they need to win" DET has not shown me enough to eat that kind of chalk on them. Both teams are beat up in the roster catagory and I think because of that and recent trends for DET that you have to look at this game a little different.

This is a small play for me, personally, 1 unit as opposed to my normal 2 units when I make picks here.

Nuts on the table taking a big dog in this game but that doesn't make me any less confident about this play.

smitch124 · 02-02-09, 01:48 PM

Originally posted by ploben

UPDATE:

Adding 1 play tonight:

STL ML (+235)

DET has not played like the Red Wings of late. This is one of those games where the faultering team continues to faulter or they come back and beat the crap outa their next opp. I am banking on the former. You have to remember the school of thought that "It is a bad idea to bet on a team just because they need to win" DET has not shown me enough to eat that kind of chalk on them. Both teams are beat up in the roster catagory and I think because of that and recent trends for DET that you have to look at this game a little different.

This is a small play for me, personally, 1 unit as opposed to my normal 2 units when I make picks here.

Nuts on the table taking a big dog in this game but that doesn't make me any less confident about this play.

What are your thoughts about the Over in this game?

ploben · 02-02-09, 02:05 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

What are your thoughts about the Over in this game?

Honestly, and I am sure there are people on this forum who think very differently about this, I think NHL O/U's are a crap shoot (even though craps is the best game in the casino based on the fact that it is the only game in the casino that pays "true" odds...but that's another thread for another time). Two teams who usualy score 3 - 4 goals a game could get stonewalled by a D that didn't expect and only score 1 - 2. I think it is much easier to cap totals in other sports because of it's consistancy...but nothing is 100% lock anyway, I just think NHL is harder.

But since you asked, I will be kind enough to answer what my thoughts are about the total for the STL/DET game:

If STL wins: It will be low scoring. Both teams are beat up and STL will win this by 1 goal, somthing like 3-2 or 2-1. DET will continue to struggle and will not put up goals like thier average points to. This game might be OT so a 2-2 score will kill any over.

If DET wins (booooo): I have a feeling DET will run up the score and will go over 5.5 goals. This will play to my theory that they are ready to open a can of whoop ass because they have looked like a pee-wee team out there as of late. Of course, I have picked against them so I believe that they do not win this game.

If DET wins and it goes UNDER, I not only lost my straight up bet but I had no clue what I was talking about with the OVER bet and DET. I give anyone full permission to rag on me in my thread and tell me I have clue WTF I am doing.

But if STL wins and it goes OVER, then I won my straight up bet but just looked silly talking about the total (which I am NOT betting on). So in this case, you cannot talk too much crap to me, just a little (because I did bring you a +235 winner people...give me some credit

)

smitch124 · 02-02-09, 02:12 PM

Thank you for such a well thought out response, Good Luck tonight!!

I'm just wondering if the Wings are ready to hold anybody down these days, they have been giving up goals in bunches.

ploben · 02-02-09, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

Thank you for such a well thought out response, Good Luck tonight!!

I'm just wondering if the Wings are ready to hold anybody down these days, they have been giving up goals in bunches.

That is the thing, they have been losing to teams they shouldn't be. SJ was a tough game and their last game against WAS was another bump in the road because of WAS's talent. It seems like a slippery slope that DET can't get off of.

This might be a "Well DUUHH" statement here, but if DET wins tonight, we rode their losing streak 1 game too late. This might be the game they need to jump start them and get them back on track. But I think that won't happen tonight.

ploben · 02-02-09, 02:27 PM

Teams DET should have beat:
1/20 - vs. PHO (DET -200) - L 6-3
1/27 - vs. Columbus (DET -150) - L 3-2
1/29 - vs. DAL (DET -245) - L 4-2

xxx · 02-02-09, 02:37 PM

detroit misses brad stuart a defensive defenseman. they are allowing to manny goals during their slump and osgood/ coonklin cannot stop a beach ball. add to this zettebergh will be out tonight so st-louis has good value.

DennisGreen · 02-02-09, 05:28 PM

Osgood vs Legace = OVER

ploben · 02-02-09, 09:23 PM

Ah...possible OT in the STL/DET...shoulda bet the draw in reg....lol

smitch124 · 02-02-09, 09:51 PM

So close to pulling that one out Ossie decided to get good at the end there....

ploben · 02-02-09, 09:54 PM

Took them to a SO. Nice work STL.

It's too bad the books don't reward you for "almost a win"

0-1 tonight. CGY up 1-0 in the 1st

ploben · 02-02-09, 09:57 PM

I am keeping an eye out for DET vs. PHO in 2 days...STL might have been the catalyst for DET

ploben · 02-03-09, 12:03 AM

Tough 0-2 night. CGY shot themselves in the foot late in the 3rd and ended the game with 1 minute left with a 5 on 3.

Record is updated and looking for a turnaround tomorrow