Puckline a tricky venture in NHL betting

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  • Chance Harper
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 07-20-07
    • 788

    #1
    Puckline a tricky venture in NHL betting
    Puckline a tricky venture in NHL betting

    It wasn't all that long ago that the puckline was the industry's betting standard, but the more user-friendly moneyline has taken over at NHL betting windows from Las Vegas to the Caribbean.

    The Detroit Red Wings are just awful this year: 4-13.

    If you’re betting the puckline, you know what we mean. The defending Stanley Cup champions are actually 12-2-3 to start the 2008-09 NHL season, but that hot start only benefits Red Wings supporters who play the moneyline. They’ve earned 2.98 units thus far, while puckline bettors are 8.42 units in the red.

    The blade cuts both ways. The Ottawa Senators are having trouble making ends meet at 6-9-3, leaving moneyline supporters 9.73 units out of pocket. But if those bettors had taken the Sens on the puckline instead, they’d be up 0.9 units on a record of 9-9.

    If you’re a little fuzzy on the mechanics of the puckline, it’s the same concept as the runline in baseball. The favorite in the matchup is given a spread of -1½ goals; in order to pay out, the favorite must win by at least two goals, while the underdog (+1½) can lose by a goal and still cash in.

    Here’s how it looks for Thursday’s matchup between the Boston Bruins and the Buffalo Sabres:

    Bruins -1.5, +175
    Sabres +1.5, -250
    The Sabres are +110 home dogs against the moneyline, but they get really chalky when spotted a goal and a half. Buffalo is only 7-10 against the puckline for a deficit of 2.45 units, while Boston is on top of the money list at 13.06 units on a record of 14-4 against the puckline (often referred to as ATS for brevity’s sake).

    Hockey games are frequently decided by a single goal, so deciding between the puckline and the moneyline is frequently the difference between getting paid or not. The Bruins are red-hot to start the season at 11-3-4; they have the second best goal differential in the league at 0.94 per game (remember, that includes their losses), so the B’s have been covering a lot of spreads. The Sabres are 9-5-3 with a goal differential of 0.18 – which would be fine if they were underdogs all the time, but Buffalo was favored in 11 of its 17 contests.

    Pucklines were the industry standard for the NHL earlier in the decade, but the moneyline is more user-friendly for the books and the customers. As a sharp bettor, you want access to both types of betting odds and the opportunity to choose wisely – especially if you happen to be a fan of the Red Wings or Senators.


    Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche
    Thursday, Nov 20, 9:00 p.m. (ET)

    This is a rematch of Tuesday’s 4-1 Flames victory at the Saddledome; Calgary was -150 on the moneyline, and thanks to a pair of goals in the final minute, the home team also cashed in against the puckline. Calgary remains one of the worst bets in the league so far at 6-13 ATS (-7.98 units), while Colorado isn’t much better at 7-10 ATS (-5.81 units).

    Questionable goaltending has been a problem for both teams. Calgary’s Miikka Kiprusoff (.885 save percentage) is having his worst season as a starter, losing four of his previous five starts before Tuesday, including an ugly 6-0 final in Vancouver. But Kiprusoff has had Colorado’s number this year, winning three out of three by a combined score of 12-5.

    Peter Budaj (.898 SV%) is under the microscope at the other end of the ice, but the fourth-year netminder from Slovakia did make 47 of 50 saves against Calgary on Tuesday – the other goal was an empty-netter. That’s four strong starts in a row for Budaj; Colorado won the other three, two of those via shootout.

    Each team has a goal differential of -7 on the season, but the Flames have turned that into a 10-8-1 record, while the Avalanche are in the Northwest Division basement at 8-9, albeit with two games in hand on Calgary. Joe Sakic (back) missed Tuesday’s game as he stayed in Colorado; he’s expected to return Thursday after sitting out four of the Avs’ last five.
  • PuckOff
    SBR MVP
    • 02-14-07
    • 2395

    #2
    Great article and VERY well written!!!

    Who is this Chance Harper fella?

    Maybe JJ Gold should start reading his stuff.
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