NFL ATS Model

[mathdotcom]

Yep, call up 5Dimes and say Hey Tony.. how's the data collection coming? What does your model say about Sunday Night Football this week?

Hutennis is clueless about American sports betting

[chunk]

Yeah, my bad....totally misinterpreted. Allergy meds and demon rum don't mix well.

[Maverick22]

I am sorry you feel inferior because you aren't able to contribute here

Since when did silence imply a lack of knowledge?

[mathdotcom]

Something tells me the fact you don't gamble for a living (and are a cheapskate non-tipper) does indeed imply a lack of knowledge. Or at least a lack of gambling success.

[hutennis]

Have you ever interacted with (or even met) an "odds maker"? If so, who? If not, refrain from speculating what they do and do not do to arrive at opening prices.

I'm not speculating at all and you don't have to meet odds maker in person to have a very good idea how it is done nowadays.

Try google Cantor Fitzgerald Midas and you'll know it too.
There is a great 30min interview among other things that I'm sure will broaden up your horizon a bit.

[mathdotcom]

You have Cantor, Pinnacle, and then you have a million other bookies that can barely open Excel let alone use computer algorithms to make a line.

Unless I'm missing an obvious one, I doubt any bookie other than Cantor or Pinnacle originates a line that involves anything more than a bookmaker's guess -- that is, for those that don't just wait and copy Pinnacle.

All this hype about Cantor is pathetic. They don't do anything a 12 year old with access to Pinnacle couldn't do. As for live betting with Cantor, I'm guessing their juice on Next Pitch props or Outcome Of An At Bar props is so high they don't even need to change them much based on the batter/pitcher matchup. Just look at league averages, add 20 cent juice, maybe favor it 10 cents the pitcher's way if it's LvsL or RvsR and away you go.

Oh, and as for those million dollar limits.. I'm guessing they don't apply to in game betting

[mathdotcom]

I wonder what hutennis thought 7 years ago when at any time there were easily found scalps between books

Gee, how can that be consistent with an efficient unbeatable market?

[MonkeyF0cker]

You have Cantor, Pinnacle, and then you have a million other bookies that can barely open Excel let alone use computer algorithms to make a line.

Unless I'm missing an obvious one, I doubt any bookie other than Cantor or Pinnacle originates a line that involves anything more than a bookmaker's guess -- that is, for those that don't just wait and copy Pinnacle.

All this hype about Cantor is pathetic. They don't do anything a 12 year old with access to Pinnacle couldn't do. As for live betting with Cantor, I'm guessing their juice on Next Pitch props or Outcome Of An At Bar props is so high they don't even need to change them much based on the batter/pitcher matchup. Just look at league averages, add 20 cent juice, maybe favor it 10 cents the pitcher's way if it's LvsL or RvsR and away you go.

Oh, and as for those million dollar limits.. I'm guessing they don't apply to in game betting

Every Third Base result of an MLB AB is +2500 in Cantor's in-running. Every single batter against ANY single pitcher.

But we'll assume that it's extremely sophisticated modelling generating identical prices since hutennis says so.

[mathdotcom]

Every Third Base result of an MLB AB is +2500 in Cantor's in-running. Every single batter against ANY single pitcher.

But we'll assume that it's extremely sophisticated modelling generating identical prices since hutennis says so.

Exactly what I expected

20c is probably the minimum for binary events, but they probably amp it up big time for any multi-outcome prop.

+2500 for Trout to hit a triple or +2500 for Halladay to triple... looks like an efficient market to me.

[hutennis]

You have Cantor, Pinnacle, and then you have a million other bookies that can barely open Excel let alone use computer algorithms to make a line.

Unless I'm missing an obvious one, I doubt any bookie other than Cantor or Pinnacle originates a line that involves anything more than a bookmaker's guess -- that is, for those that don't just wait and copy Pinnacle.

Unless I'm missing an obvious one, what stops anyone from a million other bookies that can barely open Excel to copy Pinnacle lines every step of the way, apply whatever margins they see fit and become as sharp as Pinnacle without any problem or effort at all?

Who cares where line is originated when the line they offer to players is as sharp as it gets?
How long do they have to wait really? couple of hours?

[byronbb]

Try beating NHL or NBA totals first.

[mathdotcom]

Unless I'm missing an obvious one, what stops anyone from a million other bookies that can barely open Excel to copy Pinnacle lines every step of the way, apply whatever margins they see fit and become as sharp as Pinnacle without any problem or effort at all?

Who cares where line is originated when the line they offer to players is as sharp as it gets?
How long do they have to wait really? couple of hours?

Nothing really. That's what they do. How much juice they can get away with charging depends on how square their bettors are. How many books right now are offering a better line than Pinnacle on anything? CRIS is not currently offering a single bet at a better price than Pinnacle on MLB.

[hutennis]

I wonder what hutennis thought 7 years ago when at any time there were easily found scalps between books

Gee, how can that be consistent with an efficient unbeatable market?

How COULD that be consistent with an efficient unbeatable market. May be it COULD not. I don't know.
It very well may be that 7 years ago it was a different market but i was not involved in it at all.
7 years ago I did not know what -110/-110 means and could not care less.

Now, not 7 years ago, it looks efficient and unbeatable enough so 980 out of 1000 trying to beat it lose.
Out of 20 who win 8 are lucky, 7 are winning using methods that have nothing to do with handicapping
and only 5 deserve to be called true sharps.

If you are one of those 5 in 1000 - congrats.
Or maybe you are one out of 7? Not bad either.
But, for all I know, you can easily be one of those 980 or 8.
It is 988 out of 1000 that you are.

[hutennis]

Nothing really. That's what they do. How much juice they can get away with charging depends on how square their bettors are. How many books right now are offering a better line than Pinnacle on anything? CRIS is not currently offering a single bet at a better price than Pinnacle on MLB.

So what we are talking about then?

If that's what they all do then they are not dumb, ignorant hillbillies that are stupid enough not to be able to open Excel
and beating them by definition is as hard as beating Pinnacle or harder (sme lines but juice is higher).

[mathdotcom]

It is 988 out of 1000 that you are.

Thank you, I appreciate the compliment.

Finally you admit that there are people who actually consistently beat the juice. I thought no one could?

[mathdotcom]

So what we are talking about then?

If that's what they all do then they are not dumb, ignorant hillbillies that are stupid enough not to be able to open Excel
and beating them by definition is as hard as beating Pinnacle or harder (sme lines but juice is higher).

Great question

For me to know and you to find out

[hutennis]

Thank you, I appreciate the compliment.

Finally you admit that there are people who actually consistently beat the juice. I thought no one could?

Compliment?
Do you consider being 1 out of 988 compliment?
Strange.

[mathdotcom]

Compliment?
Do you consider being 1 out of 988 compliment?
Strange.

...
yes

[hutennis]

...
yes

In this case, what is that you know that is for me to find out?

How to be either loser or lucky?

[dice]

7PM - Turn on computer
8PM - Collect some stats
9PM - make a model
10PM - feeling of satisfaction

9AM - Beat the toughest market in all of N American sports

Nice sense of humor Mathy.