Need help from pros

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  • Jj999
    SBR Rookie
    • 05-29-12
    • 9

    #1
    Need help from pros
    This is my first time posting a thread, and after much thoughts, I guess I really need a help from pro.

    I would say I'm just a square aspiring to be a pro. I love parlay, and have done that for years just for fun.
    then I found this forum, and learned that the books are actually beatable.

    I learned about beating the closing line. As I learned, the closing lines are efficient.
    I don't really know how to do regression test. Well, I know about regression, but I don't know what to test.
    Since I learned about beating the closing lines, I started taking notice where the line close. And found that actually I often beat the closing lines.

    I don't place my bet just based on gut feeling, I do my research. But I can't do it with too much maths or making my own lines, having exact numbers.

    What I usually do in baseball are very simple, and what a square would do:
    Starts with the matchups. Look at the team's form, whether they are hitting properly lately.
    Playing well, etc.
    Then the starting pitcher, bullpen. Any injuries. Weather, whether the wind is going to blow hard, the direction.
    I would then go to Yahoo sports, see how the pitchers fare against the opposing team.

    I would then look at the moneyline, and, this is where all gut feel, I would start guessing whether there is any value there.
    So, my bets are never the huge favourite, as those high prices are difficult to assess unless you have the right numbers. I bet mostly underdogs.

    My question, am I doing things quite the right way.
    Of course this is silly question, because I'm using a lot of gut feel and guessing. But what I want to know, whether the way I'm doing things are right on track before I learn more about the advanced stuffs. Such as constructing a model, testing my model, etc.

    Any advice would be very appreciated.

    Thanks.
  • HUY
    SBR Sharp
    • 04-29-09
    • 253

    #2
    If your bets are doing fine then I would say carry on what you do.
    Comment
    • jgilmartin
      SBR MVP
      • 03-31-09
      • 1119

      #3
      The problem, which you seem to already be aware of, is that your method doesn't quantify what the fair price is. Since you are pricing everything via "gut feel," you have no objective basis of determining "the worst price I would take on this is -105," for example.

      - Introductory statistics book is your friend.
      - MLB game lines are really tough to beat. Try MLB props if you want to bet MLB.
      Comment
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