[dynamite140]

Hey guys. I been betting sports for many years though I'm a loser overall.

I read online that many people say the maximum one should wager per game is 5% of your bankroll and that is a lot. But i see the majority of people say average bet should be somewhere between 2-3%? Would you guys agree on this? I hear people say pro's on the other hand should wager 1% of their bankroll per bet? Is this true?

Another question i have is if one person bets 1-3 games per day as oppose to 4-6 games per games, shouldn't the person who bets more games per day have their bet sizes per game smaller?

Another question i have is when someone says every bet they make is 2% of their bankroll, do they mean 2% of what they would win or what they would win plus the juice. For example to make it simple, if a person's bankroll is $10,000. If he is betting 2%, is that including the juice or not? Because whenever i bet, i always bet to win a flat amount such as 220 to win 200 etc and not 200 to win 181 or something like that.

But when you say 2% of bankroll, lets just make it simple and say you bet -110 lines for now. Would your bankroll need to be $10,000 or $11,000. Because if you have $10,000, then losing each bet is 220 and that is 2.2% of your bankroll and not 2%. And do you guys have a strategy where like the moment your bankroll goes down to a certain number, then you bet smaller? Of course, if you bet bigger, you would be chasing and chances are you will go broke. This happened to me numerous times few years ago and don't want it to happen again.

With say a $10,000 bankroll, if you are betting $200 per game, how much would you need before increasing bet size to $300. Would it be $15,000 since $300 is 2% of $15,000. And how much would you have to lose before you drop your bet size to $150, $100 etc? Would you say the moment you drop from $10,000 to $8,000 which is a 20% loss of your bankroll, the moment you should bet smaller? What is a good number?

I know overbetting is a bad idea since its risky. Like if you had $10,000 bankroll and bet $1000 per game, chances are you going to be broke since you are betting 10% of your bankroll per game and that is how i went broke many times the last few yeasr betting sports. But would you guys say underbetting is really bad? Such as if you had a $10,000 bankroll and you are only betting let say $50 per game. Wouldn't that be bad? I read online that there is something like this but it is called bankroll nit where a person is scared and bets very small and never takes chances. Is that worst than overbetting?

[warriorfan707]

1-5%

Do I stick to this? NEVER

But Im good at giving advice, just not following my own

[Ruifgalmeida]

1-5%

Do I stick to this? NEVER

But Im good at giving advice, just not following my own

lol

I bet 1%flat at every bet, from time to time I see a amazing bet that I can bet 2% or 3%.
4% or 5% it is too much that I can handle

[DevilCheese]

The percentage would depend on the juice you're laying and your overall win percentage, someone with a 58% win percentage on the spread can withstand the variance more than someone with say a 53% win percentage and should be risking more of their bankroll on each bet to maximize winnings without risk of ruin. If you're betting $100 as 1% of $10,000 you don't have to change your bet size once you drop to $8,000 since if you're truly betting by percentages, your bet size should be dropping proportionally with your bankroll anyway. If you're a losing player, the best bankroll management would be to bet the smallest amount possible that you still get enjoyment from the action or to simply not bet at all. Underbetting isn't bad if it helps you learn and keeps your bankroll intact.

[cigar]

Winston Churchill said when you play for more than you can afford to lose then you learn the game.

Make it sting ...... Not oh drag I lost a little money...

[jds07v]

it all depends on your goals, and your bankroll. If you have a $100 roll and are just trying it out/having fun, I wouldn't necessarily stick to the 1% method.

But if I had a $10,000 roll, I would not exceed 3% per bet as a max. So 330 to win 300 would be the highest I would go, just to have some insurance against a bad stretch. If my roll would + or - by 10%, or $1000, i would adjust accordingly. It all depends on how long you plan to be doing this, and how patient you can be.

I personally like to cut myself off at a certain point. Lets say that I'm not comfortable with bets bigger than 300, if my bankroll were to grow from 10,000 to 14,000, I would take that 4,000 for myself, and then continue with the 3% from that 10,000. hopefully repeat this cycle.

[peiferbro1]

Another question i have is if one person bets 1-3 games per day as oppose to 4-6 games per games, shouldn't the person who bets more games per day have their bet sizes per game smaller?

Anyone have an answer to this question? I was wondering the same thing.

[bztips]

Theoretically, you all should be using K...e......l....l No, never mind.

[wiffle]

if you bet 10% of your bankroll for each game, you would never go broke.

[Peeig]

This has only been discussed 10 mirrion times on SBR Forum....maybe use search function to find them...........you might even chuckle at some of the threads along the way.

[NYER5680]

2 percent

[Bosseman22]

2 percent 5 with best bet one a day

[donjuan]

This has only been discussed 10 mirrion times on SBR Forum....maybe use search function to find them...........you might even chuckle at some of the threads along the way.

+10 mirrion

This is why people get mocked and sarcastic answers.

[kpoutlaw]

I would say Stanford Wong summarizes this concept very well in his book Sharps Sports Betting. He says you should have a Minwin first of all (a minimum win amount like $100) and then determine your Min-edge (the minimum-edge requirement, which is basically the positive EV or ROI% you have on each bet..Let's say a MinEdge of 5%) So, if you have at least an edge of around 5% on each bet, then your MinWin should be about 1.5-2.5% of your bankroll....so if it's about 5 grand, then you should bet about whatever amount it takes to win at least $75 to $125 if you have at least a 5% edge on each bet....

But, if you have a slightly bigger edge, then you better a little more. For example, if you think a team has a probability of winning by 55.8% and you are getting odds of 1.90 or -111, then you have an edge of around 6% and you should bet whatever it takes to win around $100 to $150 since you have a slightly bigger edge.... this is called kelly betting i guess and correct me if I'm wrong with the math...using rough estimates

Now this sounds all good in theory but in reality, if you're a novice bettor like me and millions of most bettors, and you don't have advanced knowledge of mathematics, a financial background, or large databases of information at your whim, how the hell do you determine this thing called the Edge or ROI%..or the actual probability you think a team has of winning or covering..that's what they never seem to tell you in the books or in the forums...how to actually come up with this thing called the POSITIVE EV you have on each play...

but yeah, 1-2% is very conservative, unless you have a bankroll of 20 grand, but if you have a bankroll of like $1000 or $2000 like me and you're willing to take a risk, then 2-3%, maybe even up to 5%, is definitely a better percentage i think, I mean, how the hell do you expect to make a profit betting $10-$20 dollars on a game with a bankroll of $1000 if you're only betting 1-2%?? And if you can accurately determine this thing called the positive ROI, then you bet in proportion to the edge you have...

To answer your question of what to do when your bankroll increases, I've never had that happen so I wouldn't know what to tell you lol, and when your bankroll decreases, just don't be like me and bet everything you have left and I think you'll be ok..lol

anyway good luck man, I realized that it's hard to find useful information these days because anyone who is really knowledgeable in this field and makes really good profits is reluctant to share the "inside information" but if u look hard enough and experiment, you should find the answer

[Cookie Monster]

In short, you should make one bet ONLY if you consider that it has +EV (positive expected value). You ought to have a close estimation of the probability of your bet winning, and it must be better than the odds offered. In -110 bets, that means that you have to estimate that the bet will cover at least 52.4% of the times. If you are just picking and guessing without any probability estimation, most possibly the bet is -EV, and the correct bet size is zero.

How to estimate the probability? There are different approaches. If you have a long history of picks, you can estimate your real percentage of hitting. It is not the exact number, most possibly will tend to regress to 50%. If you have a model that give picks, you can backtest its results. Also can use the price in highly liquid markets (such as betfair) to have an estimation.

After you know the size of the advantage, you can set the size of the bet (as the % of the total bankroll). A higher advantage play warrants a larger bet. In theory, you should take every advantage bet, but the ones with a minuscule advantage may not be worth it. So, you only take the plays over some cutoff number. It should not be too high, or you may end having too little plays and leaving money in the table.

There are many other considerations. The bankroll size is not the money you have set up for betting. It should be you entire net worth (including house, car, savings, job income, etc) minus you maintenance costs. That is why 1-2% is not such an small number as it sounds. With many bets at the same time, each bet amount should be slightly lower. There are formulas to compute the "optimal" bet size, but you should learn them later.

I know that this is not the answer you were searching for, but it is the "right" way. It is not a secret, I learned most of these things reading here. The Ganchrow articles on Kelly betting are a nice start. Alas, he wrote only 2 parts in 2007, and left the other two for a later day. We are still waiting...

[kpoutlaw]

Well-spoken Monster. The people in this forum are so much more informative and considerate compared to the deluge of immature posters on Covers. (I don't speak for everyone; there are also many astute, knowledgeable handicappers and friendly people there) I also have much to learn, especially in terms of estimating the probability and +EV of a game, and I hope I've come right to the right place in SBR!

[sideloaded]

Well-spoken Monster. The people in this forum are so much more informative and considerate compared to the deluge of immature posters on Covers. (I don't speak for everyone; there are also many astute, knowledgeable handicappers and friendly people there) I also have much to learn, especially in terms of estimating the probability and +EV of a game, and I hope I've come right to the right place in SBR!

You haven't.

[magynuck]

if you are a losing bettor the correct % is 0
double or triple the bet when you see "amazing" value

[sonnyhowitzer]

no guts no glory.

[Peregrine Stoop]

Half Kelly noobs

[subs]

But would you guys say underbetting is really bad? Such as if you had a $10,000 bankroll and you are only betting let say $50 per game. Wouldn't that be bad? I read online that there is something like this but it is called bankroll nit where a person is scared and bets very small and never takes chances. Is that worst than overbetting?

dude until u can prove to yourself that u can consistently win then i think that underbetting (not really possible if u losing) is a great idea. don't u?

if ur getting a nice buzz (another bad sign IMO) just bet whatever min amount still gives u some satisfaction... whatever that is.

or even better line shop futures and bet the 5 or so best teams that way u prolly save a fortune ( prolly end up a little over breakeven) and still get to root for the favs and enjoy the wins.

good luck sir

[tim0402]

1-5% is wat i dp

[stevenash]

Short answer, just me talking, average wager is 1.5% of my bank.
I press up when on a heater, and I'll go 3% on a strong play, 4 to 5 percent of my roll if on a heater and the play is strong.

But 1.5 percent of my roll is the norm.

[PRC]

This has only been discussed 10 mirrion times on SBR Forum....maybe use search function to find them...........you might even chuckle at some of the threads along the way.

I was going to post this until you beat me to it.