Expected value question.

[mcduggly]

I was reading a sports betting book that ran through the concept of expected value. Is finding a positive expected value even doable for a point spread game, assuming that the probability of either side winning is 50%? This concept confuses me.

[FourLengthsClear]

I was reading a sports betting book that ran through the concept of expected value. Is finding a positive expected value even doable for a point spread game, assuming that the probability of either side winning is 50%? This concept confuses me.

That assumption is false and it is this that makes is possible to find +EV.

Sports games and markets are not coin flips. Generally speaking, it is very difficult to beat closing lines and you have a much better chance of finding value in early lines/odds.

[john230]

That assumption is false and it is this that makes is possible to find +EV.

Sports games and markets are not coin flips. Generally speaking, it is very difficult to beat closing lines and you have a much better chance of finding value in early lines/odds.

That's why it's good to have a shop that posts early lines. You have more control that way.

[mcduggly]

Thank you guys. So then how do I find positive expected value for the point spread games?

[FourLengthsClear]

Thank you guys. So then how do I find positive expected value for the point spread games?

It isn't easy. Some reading on the concepts/methods used might be a good starting point.

"Sharp Sports Betting" - Stanford Wong; and
"Conquering Risk" - Elihu D. Feustel

[mcduggly]

It isn't easy. Some reading on the concepts/methods used might be a good starting point.

"Sharp Sports Betting" - Stanford Wong; and
"Conquering Risk" - Elihu D. Feustel

I've actually read that book not too long ago, and that is where this question derives from. I have read it over and it doesn't make sense to me if you don't know the winning/losing percentage of either team.

[FourLengthsClear]

I've actually read that book not too long ago, and that is where this question derives from. I have read it over and it doesn't make sense to me if you don't know the winning/losing percentage of either team.

Try "Conquering Risk" too as well as "Mathletics".

Both books have quite a lot which I don't agree with but will give you an idea of how to begin to apply statistical data to derive your own percentages.

[mcduggly]

Try "Conquering Risk" too as well as "Mathletics".

Both books have quite a lot which I don't agree with but will give you an idea of how to begin to apply statistical data to derive your own percentages.

Alright, thank you very much for the help!