Do these props follow a Poisson Distribution?

[flsaders85]

Eli Manning's first pass with be: Complete -175 Incomplete or Intercepted +145

Yardage of Hakeem Nick's first pass reception: Over 9.5 yards -115 Under 9.5 yards -115

[Justin7]

You could use Poisson on the first... Would be easier to make an estimate of his completion percentage in this match-up, and use that.

If better way to attack the second one is review how many of Nicks' receptions go over or under 9.5 yards, and set odds that way.

[buby74]

Wouldnt binomial be a better approach for the first as a pass is either completed or not poisson is better suited when you have many attempts with a small probabilty of success

[AlwaysDrawing]

These are not appropriate for Poisson.

[flsaders85]

When using Poisson, is it better to use averages or predicted values? For NHL totals, should you be using home/away averages? I feel like averages are not predictive of actual results.

[podonne]

Wouldnt binomial be a better approach for the first as a pass is either completed or not poisson is better suited when you have many attempts with a small probabilty of success

I think you have that backwards. Poisson is specifically for instances with few occurences, Binonial (or normal) distributions require many attempts to establish the expected curve. The Poisson Distribution is also known as "Poisson law of small numbers".

Not relevant to the OP, just to the above comment.

[podonne]

These are not appropriate for Poisson.

Agreed. Poisson is appropriate for props of the form "does x number of things in y time frame" like "8 passes in a game", 1 touchdowns in the first quarter, etc...

[kfj_jagr]

Before I mess up my Excel sheet for NHL Player Props any further, I need to ask. Is SOG(Shots on Goal) pr game Totals and Points+SOG Totals best calculated by using the Poisson formula? The lines vary from 1,5 to 6,5 . Have found my expected totals and now need the best possible way to calculate my percentages if a bookie has a 2,5 line and I have an expected total of 2,23 SOG.

Is Poisson the correct answer here? Using this calculator makes sense: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tool...on-calculator/. Excel doesn't calculate the same way though. Not sure how to apply it to Excel, because " =POISSON.DIST " reads 1,4 or 1,6 as 1,0 . Suggestions?

[mr.ed]

FYI - Nicks 54-44 going over the 9 1/2 this year. Other variables involved on 1st reception, but if these numbers hold the true line should be -123.