I am posting my excel sheet with weekly nfl projections and the record thus far. I have been tracking for the year and have not actually made any wagers. I was looking for some feedback on how well it is actually doing or not doing. Do I have something or is it luck and regressing back to a coin flip? It has not done as well recently as it did in the beginning.
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Any thoughts..finished 275-226 ATS/OU at 54.89% for 26.4 units of profit.Comment -
Your attachment is just your results which you already stated. Unless you are lying to yourself and fabricating results it looks very promising considering you have a fairly large sample size.
My rough calculations show your results are roughly 1 in 100 to be winning because of luck. Perhaps I did this wrong though so get somebody else to confirm.Comment -
This issue is addressed in each of the three major books on sports betting (Stanford Wong, King Yao, Justin7). The Stanford Wong book has a table titled "Rarity of Good W-L Records" and for 500 samples, it shows the chances that the following W-L records were created by chance:
1:100 - 277-233
1:1000 - 285-215
1:10,000 - 292-208
(Good calculating, JustinBieber!)
Wong recommends that if you're using historical data, hold out for 1:1000 chance of a W-L record being by chance alone. At 1,000 sample, the 1:1000 record works out to be 549-451.Comment -
i never buy into this mathematical stuff, betting is not as calculated as thought ofComment -
Bump, I'm continuing this for this season to see results..haven't bet any of it yet with real money. This spreadsheet assumes -110 but if I were able to get -105 then my profit jumps to 37.7. My other problem is that I am using a rating number that is derived by someone else and while I do not believe they will change their methods of getting the ratings, I wish I could figure out how it is derived. Any insight going forward this next season? Lost 3.7 @-110 or 2.85 @-105 units week 1. Any suggestions for books with -105 reduced on spread/totals?Comment
