I came across this when I was doing some research on fantasy sports for a work project. I assume its existence is known, and I see some sample issues in his results, but has anyone ever looked at it (the betting methodology) in more detail?
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i just glanced at it. usually academic papers are good for theory but terrible in practice. this one looks surprisingly good referencing things such as log5 and kelly criterion.
in the betting sims, not surprisingly they got killed against run lines and totals. their model sucks for predicting those but they do well on the money lines.
for aspiring bettors with strong academic background, this paper will give you a good basic framework to being your own modeling. it can certainly be improved upon. but the betting market has improved since 2007 as well. good luck.Comment -
Two pages of acknowledgments like he's accepting a f cking Nobel and then the third word of the actual paper is a grammatical error.
tl;drComment
